4 ms·

> A few, or even one, brilliant mind(s) could make a break thru in AGI in a matter of months. same goes for warp drives doesn't it? The point is that people d

> A few, or even one, brilliant mind(s) could make a break thru in AGI in a matter of months. same goes for warp drives doesn't it? The point is that people don't see how we build THAT out of these tools we currently have. We only build pastiches of intelligence today and either we have an arrogant view of the level of our own intelligence or we can't make THAT with THIS. But maybe warp-drives, maybe world-peace too?

fossuser 7y ago
Not really - we're not sure if warp drive is possible given the physical constraints of the universe. AGI is possible because intelligence is possible (and common on earth) in nature.
- StreamBright 7y ago
  Following your reasoning, flying with the speed of light is possible because photons travel with the speed of light. We are not photons though. Is it possible or not to travel with the speed of light with a spaceship?
  - fossuser 7y ago
    Warp drives travel faster than the speed of light? That's what I meant by not possible. Ignoring that if we saw miniature warp drives everywhere around us in nature then yes I would be more confident they were possible.
    - StreamBright 7y ago
      I see your point I just wanted to point out that there are different challenges for us than for nature. Flying like a bird has dirrent challanges than flying with a Boeing 747, even though these challenges might share a subset of the physics, like the Bernoulli’s principle.
      - fossuser 7y ago
        Yep - I think that's fair and a good analogy. Similarly to how human airplanes don't flap their wings like birds, there will probably be implementation differences that make sense but share the underlying principles. Particularly since the artificial version isn't constrained by things biology needs to handle.
- Quarrelsome 7y ago
  > AGI is possible because intelligence is possible (and common on earth) in nature. But you haven't asked if we're capable of building it. While it might be technically possible are we capable of managing its construction? All I see today is ways of making the process more opaque at the benefit of not having to provide the implementation. How does that technique even start to scale in terms of its construction? I worry about the exponentially increasing length of the "80% done" stage, and that's on the happy path.
mritchie712 7y ago
No, way wrong, there would be enormous hardware costs to building a warp drive. There are near zero costs (possibly) of building AGI.
- Quarrelsome 7y ago
  Mythical man month. I feel like you're seriously underestimating how hard this is. Its got to be one of the greatest engineering challenges of our species and to flaunt that its "near zero cost" is offensive.
  - mritchie712 7y ago
    Not offensive in the least, it's a compliment to what our species has done to date. We are all standing on shoulders and the shoulders have never been higher. Think of the things you can build in a day that were impossible to build 30 years ago. To think that there isn't at least some chance someone will build AGI in the next 30 years is foolish. Again, I'm just saying there is a reasonable chance, like hitting a homerun. It's not likely for any given plate appearance, but given the number of games and players it happens every summer day.
    - Quarrelsome 7y ago
      We're making the process more opaque. How can that scale to AGI? We'll be stuck at 80% done for much longer. I would posit that while its possible, it will take so long on this tech stack that we'll find another in the interim that will produce better results. I'm not convinced this branch is the winner.
      - mritchie712 7y ago
        Oh, do you mean how can Azure scale to AGI? I have no opinion on Azure, I just meant someone smart will figure it out. There are huge financial incentives to do so, when that happens, we (humans) figure shit out.

fossuser 7y ago

Not really - we're not sure if warp drive is possible given the physical constraints of the universe. AGI is possible because intelligence is possible (and common on earth) in nature.

StreamBright 7y ago
Following your reasoning, flying with the speed of light is possible because photons travel with the speed of light. We are not photons though. Is it possible or not to travel with the speed of light with a spaceship?
- fossuser 7y ago
  Warp drives travel faster than the speed of light? That's what I meant by not possible. Ignoring that if we saw miniature warp drives everywhere around us in nature then yes I would be more confident they were possible.
  - StreamBright 7y ago
    I see your point I just wanted to point out that there are different challenges for us than for nature. Flying like a bird has dirrent challanges than flying with a Boeing 747, even though these challenges might share a subset of the physics, like the Bernoulli’s principle.
    - fossuser 7y ago
      Yep - I think that's fair and a good analogy. Similarly to how human airplanes don't flap their wings like birds, there will probably be implementation differences that make sense but share the underlying principles. Particularly since the artificial version isn't constrained by things biology needs to handle.
Quarrelsome 7y ago
> AGI is possible because intelligence is possible (and common on earth) in nature. But you haven't asked if we're capable of building it. While it might be technically possible are we capable of managing its construction? All I see today is ways of making the process more opaque at the benefit of not having to provide the implementation. How does that technique even start to scale in terms of its construction? I worry about the exponentially increasing length of the "80% done" stage, and that's on the happy path.

mritchie712 7y ago

No, way wrong, there would be enormous hardware costs to building a warp drive. There are near zero costs (possibly) of building AGI.

Quarrelsome 7y ago
Mythical man month. I feel like you're seriously underestimating how hard this is. Its got to be one of the greatest engineering challenges of our species and to flaunt that its "near zero cost" is offensive.
- mritchie712 7y ago
  Not offensive in the least, it's a compliment to what our species has done to date. We are all standing on shoulders and the shoulders have never been higher. Think of the things you can build in a day that were impossible to build 30 years ago. To think that there isn't at least some chance someone will build AGI in the next 30 years is foolish. Again, I'm just saying there is a reasonable chance, like hitting a homerun. It's not likely for any given plate appearance, but given the number of games and players it happens every summer day.
  - Quarrelsome 7y ago
    We're making the process more opaque. How can that scale to AGI? We'll be stuck at 80% done for much longer. I would posit that while its possible, it will take so long on this tech stack that we'll find another in the interim that will produce better results. I'm not convinced this branch is the winner.
    - mritchie712 7y ago
      Oh, do you mean how can Azure scale to AGI? I have no opinion on Azure, I just meant someone smart will figure it out. There are huge financial incentives to do so, when that happens, we (humans) figure shit out.