6 ms·

Excellent analysis here on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20492145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20492145 The Chinese and HK governments have

by keanzu 7y ago

Excellent analysis here on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20492145 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20492145 The Chinese and HK governments have realized they've lost the culture wars and public opinion so they've resorted to the tried and tested handbook of authoritarian governments, to create a cycle of violence to create justification for cracking down. This is a provocation. Protesters will now counter arm themselves with similar bats and sticks, which in turn will give the police extra justification when they uncover "weapons". It will be used by the Chinese domestic media as justification to crack down hard.

leroy_masochist 7y ago
One would hope that the protesters will continue to use the ingenuity they've shown over the last month (intensely coordinated logistics, hand signs, etc) and refuse to take the bait while finding a clever, asymmetrical response to the intimidation tactics.
- onetimemanytime 7y ago
  No ingenuity is a match for police. And China has shown that they mean business when things risk getting out of (their) hand
  - bidifferential 7y ago
    > No ingenuity is a match for police. You’re going to have a real hard time getting the typical American to buy into this perspective.
    - bgorman 7y ago
      It is no coincidence that private gun-ownership is effectively illegal in China, while in the US it is a secured right in the constitution.
      - brokenmachine 7y ago
        Lucky that as an American you can carry your gun to a protest, you know, just in case.
    - protomyth 7y ago
      An American can sue, use the media, and vote. None of these remedies are available to Hong Kong. There is a rather large difference between protesting in China 2019 versus USA 2019.
    - onetimemanytime 7y ago
      We aren't talking about America or Americans. Not that cops in USA restrain themselves... Hong Kong is more or less an island, a small one. China can fill the "1,104-square-kilometre (426 sq mi) territory" with soldiers and police in a heartbeat. Nothing you can do, cops already know the 1000+ leaders of the movement and they will be arrested or killed in the first hours. Etc etc
      - cr0sh 7y ago
        > We aren't talking about America or Americans. Not yet.
    - mywittyname 7y ago
      The police in America have dedicated teams tasked with taking on protestors and have effectively infinite resources. Chinese police have the same training and resources, but are less constrained by the legal system and have more control over the media. The typical American probably sides with the police over protesters in most situations. The only protesters that can match the police are those with inside support. It's how certain people can demonstrate while carrying rifles without issues, while other unarmed peaceful protesters can be corralled, brutalized, and arrested.
- traderjane 7y ago
  Refusing to take the bait may be useless as they might need to arm themselves in order to be successful, if success is even in the cards for them absent a foreign intervention.
nabla9 7y ago
Non-violent resistance is an option, but it requires very tough attitude. If people would just take the beating and lay down, like Gandhi-led resistance against Brits did, it could break down the violent strategy.
- Santosh83 7y ago
  May not work these days. The British were half decent and still they killed thousands of people before they left India. If the protestors continue non-violently, we'll simply see them shot with rubber bullets and carted off, or barricaded and starved out. Countries these days are willing to escalate into violence since every major country has more than enough blood on its hands and prefers tacitly looking the other way unless there is something in it for them.
  - nabla9 7y ago
    It may not work, but if the government is willing to escalate without limit other strategies don't work either.
  - wavefunction 7y ago
    One wonders if the British were even half decent when you consider their long history of colonial and imperial oppression. One might conclude they were fully indecent, in fact.
    - cevn 7y ago
      Half decent? Has the GP heard of the Jallianwala Bagh massacre, or how Churchill starved 3m in Bengal?
      - nabla9 7y ago
        Becoming shamed requires some amount of decency. Amritsar caused outrage in Britain and changed the whole narrative. It took time, but within a decade British government had lost all moral ground and British attitudes had shifted.
L_226 7y ago
HK police have already uncovered a stash of TATP stockpiled by "protesters" - https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/20/asia/hong-kong-explosives-haul-intl-hnk/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/20/asia/hong-kong-explosives...
- ISL 7y ago
  From afar, it is unclear whether it was uncovered or planted. Both make logical sense. In a place where weapons are banned, it can make sense to construct them. In a time of effective peaceful protest, it can make sense to an authoritarian government to attempt to justify a crackdown. My heart is with those protesting in Hong Kong: 'Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed ...'
- hker 7y ago
  HK police had made high-profile-arrest followed by low-profile-release on protesters. They claimed to have found an arsenal of protected substances during arrest, and found nothing until release half a year later (weapon of mass destruction, Hong Kong style). For a case related to earlier protest in 2016, see [1] in Chinese. [1]: https://thestandnews.com/politics/高調拉人-低調撤案-警方旺角騷亂後-環保倉當-武器庫-拖延半年-4人獲撤案/ https://thestandnews.com/politics/高調拉人-低調撤案-警方旺角騷亂後-環保倉當-武器庫... For this particular case of arrest you mentioned, one thing stood out: the supposed “petrol bombs“ were in fact sealed, unopened beer bottles (see the zoom-in here [2]). The correct way to make a petrol bomb needs to replace the content [3]. For all we know, the police have found 10 bottles of unopened beer and claimed to have found 10 petrol bombs. [2]: https://lihkg.com/thread/1335217/page/1 https://lihkg.com/thread/1335217/page/1 [3]: https://img.appledaily.com.tw/images/ReNews/20130804/640_13b0620c8fd49a63d6f3095bbe4e6513.jpg https://img.appledaily.com.tw/images/ReNews/20130804/640_13b...
- cr0sh 7y ago
  > TATP stockpiled Anyone who knows anything about explosives - knows you don't "stockpile" TATP. It's a highly energetic explosive that will go off if you look at it sideways. Storing it? You'd have to be a fool.
  - 7y ago
MadSudaca 7y ago
I don't think the communists ruling China need any justification for immoral behavior. Lack of justification hasn't stopped them in the past.

by keanzu 7y ago

leroy_masochist 7y ago

One would hope that the protesters will continue to use the ingenuity they've shown over the last month (intensely coordinated logistics, hand signs, etc) and refuse to take the bait while finding a clever, asymmetrical response to the intimidation tactics.

onetimemanytime 7y ago
No ingenuity is a match for police. And China has shown that they mean business when things risk getting out of (their) hand
- bidifferential 7y ago
  > No ingenuity is a match for police. You’re going to have a real hard time getting the typical American to buy into this perspective.
  - bgorman 7y ago
    It is no coincidence that private gun-ownership is effectively illegal in China, while in the US it is a secured right in the constitution.
    - brokenmachine 7y ago
      Lucky that as an American you can carry your gun to a protest, you know, just in case.
  - protomyth 7y ago
    An American can sue, use the media, and vote. None of these remedies are available to Hong Kong. There is a rather large difference between protesting in China 2019 versus USA 2019.
  - onetimemanytime 7y ago
    We aren't talking about America or Americans. Not that cops in USA restrain themselves... Hong Kong is more or less an island, a small one. China can fill the "1,104-square-kilometre (426 sq mi) territory" with soldiers and police in a heartbeat. Nothing you can do, cops already know the 1000+ leaders of the movement and they will be arrested or killed in the first hours. Etc etc
    - cr0sh 7y ago
      > We aren't talking about America or Americans. Not yet.
  - mywittyname 7y ago
    The police in America have dedicated teams tasked with taking on protestors and have effectively infinite resources. Chinese police have the same training and resources, but are less constrained by the legal system and have more control over the media. The typical American probably sides with the police over protesters in most situations. The only protesters that can match the police are those with inside support. It's how certain people can demonstrate while carrying rifles without issues, while other unarmed peaceful protesters can be corralled, brutalized, and arrested.
traderjane 7y ago
Refusing to take the bait may be useless as they might need to arm themselves in order to be successful, if success is even in the cards for them absent a foreign intervention.

nabla9 7y ago

Non-violent resistance is an option, but it requires very tough attitude. If people would just take the beating and lay down, like Gandhi-led resistance against Brits did, it could break down the violent strategy.

Santosh83 7y ago
May not work these days. The British were half decent and still they killed thousands of people before they left India. If the protestors continue non-violently, we'll simply see them shot with rubber bullets and carted off, or barricaded and starved out. Countries these days are willing to escalate into violence since every major country has more than enough blood on its hands and prefers tacitly looking the other way unless there is something in it for them.
- nabla9 7y ago
  It may not work, but if the government is willing to escalate without limit other strategies don't work either.
- wavefunction 7y ago
  One wonders if the British were even half decent when you consider their long history of colonial and imperial oppression. One might conclude they were fully indecent, in fact.
  - cevn 7y ago
    Half decent? Has the GP heard of the Jallianwala Bagh massacre, or how Churchill starved 3m in Bengal?
    - nabla9 7y ago
      Becoming shamed requires some amount of decency. Amritsar caused outrage in Britain and changed the whole narrative. It took time, but within a decade British government had lost all moral ground and British attitudes had shifted.

L_226 7y ago

HK police have already uncovered a stash of TATP stockpiled by "protesters" - https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/20/asia/hong-kong-explosives-haul-intl-hnk/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/20/asia/hong-kong-explosives...

ISL 7y ago
From afar, it is unclear whether it was uncovered or planted. Both make logical sense. In a place where weapons are banned, it can make sense to construct them. In a time of effective peaceful protest, it can make sense to an authoritarian government to attempt to justify a crackdown. My heart is with those protesting in Hong Kong: 'Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed ...'
hker 7y ago
HK police had made high-profile-arrest followed by low-profile-release on protesters. They claimed to have found an arsenal of protected substances during arrest, and found nothing until release half a year later (weapon of mass destruction, Hong Kong style). For a case related to earlier protest in 2016, see [1] in Chinese. [1]: https://thestandnews.com/politics/高調拉人-低調撤案-警方旺角騷亂後-環保倉當-武器庫-拖延半年-4人獲撤案/ https://thestandnews.com/politics/高調拉人-低調撤案-警方旺角騷亂後-環保倉當-武器庫... For this particular case of arrest you mentioned, one thing stood out: the supposed “petrol bombs“ were in fact sealed, unopened beer bottles (see the zoom-in here [2]). The correct way to make a petrol bomb needs to replace the content [3]. For all we know, the police have found 10 bottles of unopened beer and claimed to have found 10 petrol bombs. [2]: https://lihkg.com/thread/1335217/page/1 https://lihkg.com/thread/1335217/page/1 [3]: https://img.appledaily.com.tw/images/ReNews/20130804/640_13b0620c8fd49a63d6f3095bbe4e6513.jpg https://img.appledaily.com.tw/images/ReNews/20130804/640_13b...
cr0sh 7y ago
> TATP stockpiled Anyone who knows anything about explosives - knows you don't "stockpile" TATP. It's a highly energetic explosive that will go off if you look at it sideways. Storing it? You'd have to be a fool.
- 7y ago

MadSudaca 7y ago

I don't think the communists ruling China need any justification for immoral behavior. Lack of justification hasn't stopped them in the past.