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I am very curious, but worried, of the situation in HK. Concretely, it seems HKers can protest as much as they want, but when push comes to shove, the PRC will

I am very curious, but worried, of the situation in HK. Concretely, it seems HKers can protest as much as they want, but when push comes to shove, the PRC will just end up crushing them and the parts of democracy they still have. I can't imagine how they may get any other outcome. Even if I wish they could just gain independence, it seems unlikely, and it's not like any foreign power would go to war to protect HK.

nailer 7y ago
Back in... IIRC 2012 mainland regime tried to impose the PRC school curriculum, which includes a bunch of false things (Mao defeating the Japanese instead of Chiang Kai Shek) and obviously removes references to others (the Tiananmen massacre). The teachers won and the PRC curriculum was never implemented.
- rubinelli 7y ago
  The problem with erosion of rights is that they have to fight and win every time. The PRC just has to win once.
trevyn 7y ago
>I can't imagine how they may get any other outcome. There is one person who has made himself a big single point of failure for China.
- lonelappde 7y ago
  Who?
  - Reimersholme 7y ago
    I assume he's referring to emperor Xi. I don't think it's correct to consider him a single point of failure though.
Merrill 7y ago
The population of PRC is approximately 200 times the population of Hong Kong.
underthebus 7y ago
> Even if I wish they could just gain independence, it seems unlikely, and it's not like any foreign power would go to war to protect HK. I never understood this. Why would HK gain 'independence'? Why would a foreign power 'protect' HK? (protect from what?) HK has been used to build a narrative that is rather strange... Frankly people in HK calling for independence are a bit like, say, the Texas Nationalist Movement or calling for Seattle independence. It's a fringe movement at best.
- benj111 7y ago
  The population of Hong Kong is apparently 7+ million, and 2 million went on one of the marches. Doesn't seem 'fringe' to me. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-48656471 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-48656471
  - underthebus 7y ago
    Trying to claim that these 2 million people campaign for HK independence is not honest.
    - benj111 7y ago
      Well until they are allowed a free and fair vote on that, saying its 'fringe at best' isnt honest either. I would contend that in the absence of such a vote, these numbers are enough to show you're wrong. Also the news we are discussing demonstrates why the people of Hong Kong need protecting. So questioning that isnt honest either.
    - skosch 7y ago
      Well of course – almost nobody is really campaigning for independence. HK is very much dependent on the mainland, and that's understood. The demands are much more narrow: for the extradition bill to be scrapped, for Carrie Lam to step down, for elections to be free and fair, etc.
  - sho 7y ago
    What do you mean "apparently", like it's some kind of questionable assertion? It's 7+ million, period. It's "fringe" because it's part of China, and even all 7+ million people in HK comprise less than 1% of China. I know many Chinese people, and they do not give a shit about HK's ideas about its own independence. They consider it China, full stop. The example about Seattle "declaring independence" the GP gave is actually quite apt. There is only one way this will play out. I happen to vehemently disagree with what the PRC is doing, for what it's worth. But reality is reality and this script is going to unfold exactly as everyone thinks it will. In 10 years time I doubt there'll even be a border. Who's going to stop them? Boris Johnson?
sho 7y ago
Your analysis is 100% correct. The handover was more than 20 years ago. The horizon for total integration was 50 years. We're more than 40% through. Pre-handover was "britain in asia". The endgame is "full integration". HK is nowhere near 40% full integration. Progress has fallen behind, and now they are catching up. The wishful thinking of HK residents doesn't change anything. The writing has been on the wall for decades. There's only one way this ends. Personally I hate all of this. I loved HK being its own little out-of-place enclave in the orient. But that all changed in 1997; the script has been written, and events will grind forward to the inevitable conclusion. Most people I know in HK are thinking about their "Plan B". They would be advised to hurry it up.
- ginko 7y ago
  As far as I know that the agreement was for Hong Kong's way of life to "remain unchanged" for 50 years. So it should have been 2047 when they can start thinking about integrating Hong Kong.
  - tluyben2 7y ago
    Yes, your parent poster is incorrect about the facts; they (China) did sign to leave HK be until 2047, not ‘start integration’ in some kind linear process where 40% of the time means 40% integration. They signed for 99.9999% of the time is 0% integration. But he is right about the reality; no one will defend HK it seems so China might as well push ahead in that case. I like HK a lot; I have not found a place as diverse as that anywhere else (tips are welcome and no, SG is nothing at all like it) but it seems it is closer to being absorbed.
    - goobynight 7y ago
      I'm glad I had the chance to live and work in HK from summer 2016 -> Fall 2017. It wasn't the best place ever, but I'd hate to see it lost. Seeing this is crazy. As for diversity, it's a unique mix. Notable quantities of French, British, Americans, Indonesians, Filipinos, Thais, Indians, and locals. Indonesians and Filipinos are obviously insanely marginalized, as domestic helpers, but they were cool to hang with on their 1 day off per week.
graeme 7y ago
>I can't imagine how they may get any other outcome. The only way would be is if the chinese government changed. Not all that likely, but on the other hand the Berlin wall was only up 30 years. Tomorrow is always a better day to die.
dirtyid 7y ago
A Chinese general recently did a demographic analysis of HK and attributed to the generational lashing out to a "failure" of education - a cohort of protesters educated on old UK textbooks, raised by anti CPC parents (HK is full of people who left China due to persecution or distaste for conditions on the Mainland). The western textbooks he finds a particularly grievous mistake, something to the lines of: we focused too much on two systems instead of one country. So I suppose CPC will just wait it out and educate future generations to party line. At least it'll be through textbooks instead of re-education camps. Ultimately, as mainland economy makes HK increasingly irrelevant, it's in HKers interest to integrate and seek opportunities outside the city. Not every native HKer is qualified to be a financier / banker. The raising cost of living will not abate because HK is where Chinese wealth and FDI is being funneled - and basically the only real strategic importance the city has. That's just the byproduct of extreme wealth concentration in "tier1" cities everywhere. But everywhere else, the poor get priced out, but since HK operates as a city state, people with little prospects are trapped with nowhere to go. And if they're smart, they'll realize this and either move abroad or move on. Functionally, the sooner HKers accept they'll never be anything but Chinese the sooner they can get on with their lives and out of HK. If they're lucky they'll be extended HKSAR affirmative action privileges so they can still pretend they're better than mainlanders. And really that's what it's about isn't it? It's almost like Cantonese equivalent alt-right thought - a bunch of disenfranchised kids with very little future prospects, reminiscing about a privileged past they've never actually experienced (a few years at the tail end of colonial rule) or existed (independence/democracy). Yeah, they're also fighting for western liberal values, it's all very noble and stuff. That's good western media byline. But at the end of the day, many Cantonese youth also resent being culturally, financially and politically eclipsed by mainlanders - why some of the recent protests targetted mainland tourists just doing their thing (cause you know, China's not bringing their best). It's not limited to HK, a lot of westernized Sinophobia is rooted in the distaste and disbelief that once poor chicken farmers from shithole coal county now live in million dollar homes and drive fancy sports cars. But the mainland won't see them as anything but privileged has-been whiners who refused to integrate and adapt.
- dang 7y ago
  It looks like you've been using HN primarily for nationalistic battle. That's not ok, and we ban accounts that do that, regardless of which nation they're for or against. Would you please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and use HN as intended? We'd be grateful.

nailer 7y ago

Back in... IIRC 2012 mainland regime tried to impose the PRC school curriculum, which includes a bunch of false things (Mao defeating the Japanese instead of Chiang Kai Shek) and obviously removes references to others (the Tiananmen massacre). The teachers won and the PRC curriculum was never implemented.

rubinelli 7y ago
The problem with erosion of rights is that they have to fight and win every time. The PRC just has to win once.

trevyn 7y ago

>I can't imagine how they may get any other outcome. There is one person who has made himself a big single point of failure for China.

lonelappde 7y ago
Who?
- Reimersholme 7y ago
  I assume he's referring to emperor Xi. I don't think it's correct to consider him a single point of failure though.

Merrill 7y ago

The population of PRC is approximately 200 times the population of Hong Kong.

underthebus 7y ago

> Even if I wish they could just gain independence, it seems unlikely, and it's not like any foreign power would go to war to protect HK. I never understood this. Why would HK gain 'independence'? Why would a foreign power 'protect' HK? (protect from what?) HK has been used to build a narrative that is rather strange... Frankly people in HK calling for independence are a bit like, say, the Texas Nationalist Movement or calling for Seattle independence. It's a fringe movement at best.

benj111 7y ago
The population of Hong Kong is apparently 7+ million, and 2 million went on one of the marches. Doesn't seem 'fringe' to me. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-48656471 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-48656471
- underthebus 7y ago
  Trying to claim that these 2 million people campaign for HK independence is not honest.
  - benj111 7y ago
    Well until they are allowed a free and fair vote on that, saying its 'fringe at best' isnt honest either. I would contend that in the absence of such a vote, these numbers are enough to show you're wrong. Also the news we are discussing demonstrates why the people of Hong Kong need protecting. So questioning that isnt honest either.
  - skosch 7y ago
    Well of course – almost nobody is really campaigning for independence. HK is very much dependent on the mainland, and that's understood. The demands are much more narrow: for the extradition bill to be scrapped, for Carrie Lam to step down, for elections to be free and fair, etc.
- sho 7y ago
  What do you mean "apparently", like it's some kind of questionable assertion? It's 7+ million, period. It's "fringe" because it's part of China, and even all 7+ million people in HK comprise less than 1% of China. I know many Chinese people, and they do not give a shit about HK's ideas about its own independence. They consider it China, full stop. The example about Seattle "declaring independence" the GP gave is actually quite apt. There is only one way this will play out. I happen to vehemently disagree with what the PRC is doing, for what it's worth. But reality is reality and this script is going to unfold exactly as everyone thinks it will. In 10 years time I doubt there'll even be a border. Who's going to stop them? Boris Johnson?

sho 7y ago

Your analysis is 100% correct. The handover was more than 20 years ago. The horizon for total integration was 50 years. We're more than 40% through. Pre-handover was "britain in asia". The endgame is "full integration". HK is nowhere near 40% full integration. Progress has fallen behind, and now they are catching up. The wishful thinking of HK residents doesn't change anything. The writing has been on the wall for decades. There's only one way this ends. Personally I hate all of this. I loved HK being its own little out-of-place enclave in the orient. But that all changed in 1997; the script has been written, and events will grind forward to the inevitable conclusion. Most people I know in HK are thinking about their "Plan B". They would be advised to hurry it up.

ginko 7y ago
As far as I know that the agreement was for Hong Kong's way of life to "remain unchanged" for 50 years. So it should have been 2047 when they can start thinking about integrating Hong Kong.
- tluyben2 7y ago
  Yes, your parent poster is incorrect about the facts; they (China) did sign to leave HK be until 2047, not ‘start integration’ in some kind linear process where 40% of the time means 40% integration. They signed for 99.9999% of the time is 0% integration. But he is right about the reality; no one will defend HK it seems so China might as well push ahead in that case. I like HK a lot; I have not found a place as diverse as that anywhere else (tips are welcome and no, SG is nothing at all like it) but it seems it is closer to being absorbed.
  - goobynight 7y ago
    I'm glad I had the chance to live and work in HK from summer 2016 -> Fall 2017. It wasn't the best place ever, but I'd hate to see it lost. Seeing this is crazy. As for diversity, it's a unique mix. Notable quantities of French, British, Americans, Indonesians, Filipinos, Thais, Indians, and locals. Indonesians and Filipinos are obviously insanely marginalized, as domestic helpers, but they were cool to hang with on their 1 day off per week.

graeme 7y ago

>I can't imagine how they may get any other outcome. The only way would be is if the chinese government changed. Not all that likely, but on the other hand the Berlin wall was only up 30 years. Tomorrow is always a better day to die.

dirtyid 7y ago

A Chinese general recently did a demographic analysis of HK and attributed to the generational lashing out to a "failure" of education - a cohort of protesters educated on old UK textbooks, raised by anti CPC parents (HK is full of people who left China due to persecution or distaste for conditions on the Mainland). The western textbooks he finds a particularly grievous mistake, something to the lines of: we focused too much on two systems instead of one country. So I suppose CPC will just wait it out and educate future generations to party line. At least it'll be through textbooks instead of re-education camps. Ultimately, as mainland economy makes HK increasingly irrelevant, it's in HKers interest to integrate and seek opportunities outside the city. Not every native HKer is qualified to be a financier / banker. The raising cost of living will not abate because HK is where Chinese wealth and FDI is being funneled - and basically the only real strategic importance the city has. That's just the byproduct of extreme wealth concentration in "tier1" cities everywhere. But everywhere else, the poor get priced out, but since HK operates as a city state, people with little prospects are trapped with nowhere to go. And if they're smart, they'll realize this and either move abroad or move on. Functionally, the sooner HKers accept they'll never be anything but Chinese the sooner they can get on with their lives and out of HK. If they're lucky they'll be extended HKSAR affirmative action privileges so they can still pretend they're better than mainlanders. And really that's what it's about isn't it? It's almost like Cantonese equivalent alt-right thought - a bunch of disenfranchised kids with very little future prospects, reminiscing about a privileged past they've never actually experienced (a few years at the tail end of colonial rule) or existed (independence/democracy). Yeah, they're also fighting for western liberal values, it's all very noble and stuff. That's good western media byline. But at the end of the day, many Cantonese youth also resent being culturally, financially and politically eclipsed by mainlanders - why some of the recent protests targetted mainland tourists just doing their thing (cause you know, China's not bringing their best). It's not limited to HK, a lot of westernized Sinophobia is rooted in the distaste and disbelief that once poor chicken farmers from shithole coal county now live in million dollar homes and drive fancy sports cars. But the mainland won't see them as anything but privileged has-been whiners who refused to integrate and adapt.

dang 7y ago
It looks like you've been using HN primarily for nationalistic battle. That's not ok, and we ban accounts that do that, regardless of which nation they're for or against. Would you please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and use HN as intended? We'd be grateful.