I think you are simplifying things quite a bit. For example, a grocery store might have minimum wage workers who help bag groceries to provide a better service

I think you are simplifying things quite a bit. For example, a grocery store might have minimum wage workers who help bag groceries to provide a better service to their customers. If the minimum wage goes up, then the store might decide to eliminate that service. My local Dairy Queen, for example, might decide that two people getting paid $15/hour will just have to do instead of three people getting paid $10/hour. Maybe that isn't for all shifts/times, but just on the margins. And of course it isn't just the lowest paid workers that are affected by this. Let's say there are two tiers of jobs at a particular business. One that pays $15/hour and one that is $10/hour. If the lowest tier must be paid $15, what happens to those workers at the next tier of $15/hour? Either their pay must be increased or they are going to be unhappy about having more responsibilities/skills for the same pay as the person that was just hired. Alternatively new hires will have little incentive to work harder to fill the next tier (since they won't get paid any more). So wages for the positions just above minimum wage also have to go up increasing total payroll costs. IMHO, Anyone who thinks that hourly wages can be increased by 50% ($10 to $15, for example), without having a significant impact on any business that depends on low-skilled labor isn't thinking very deeply about this sort of change. I'm being generous also since the federal change is almost a 100% increase.