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I worry about Hong Kong protestors as it isn't like mainland China isn't in this for the long game. Mainland China will increasing integrate Hong Kong, it is a

I worry about Hong Kong protestors as it isn't like mainland China isn't in this for the long game. Mainland China will increasing integrate Hong Kong, it is an unstoppable force. I think the most prominent protestors should have plans to get out of the country.

Nasrudith 7y ago
I think part of their goal is to make the intergration as expensive as possible. They don't need to beat the Mainland in a classical sense - just make it not worth it even when trying to preserve face. The ideal goal is either turning Mainland to be more like their values or being cut loose into a "offically a part of China that we don't deliver mail to" like Taiwan. The Mainland could always go Tiananmen Square part 2 but it would do more damage to their relations, create martyrs, and lead to sanctions and boycotts value.
- twblalock 7y ago
  There does not seem to be a unified long-term goal among the protesters. Support for independence is strong primarily among young people, so embracing the cause of independence would probably split the protest movement along generational lines. However, everybody knows that Hong Kong's special deal with mainland will expire after 2046 and it doesn't seem like anyone outside the independence movement really has a strategy to preserve democracy after that.
  - pimmen 7y ago
    > There does not seem to be a unified long-term goal among the protesters. Universal sufferage has been trending as another talking point too among protesters. This would be very long term because if Hong Kong would allot all seats in the LegCo based on popular vote Beijing would almost certainly lose its ability to legislate this easily and hand pick the government.
    - twblalock 7y ago
      How would universal suffrage last beyond 2046, at which time the mainland government can just rewrite all of the laws?
      - pimmen 7y ago
        Because China, contrary to popular opinion, cares about its image. Dismantling democracy in one sweep at 2046 would look pretty bad, replacing the democratically elected government at 2046 would also look bad.
vore 7y ago
For many of the protestors, that probably isn't an option. After all, if you had the option to flee, risking life and limb to protest against the mainland Chinese government is a much less safe alternative.
_cs2017_ 7y ago
It appears some have prepared their escape in advance: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3019443/hong-kong-protesters-went-taiwan-june-explore-options-asylum https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3019443/hon...

Nasrudith 7y ago

I think part of their goal is to make the intergration as expensive as possible. They don't need to beat the Mainland in a classical sense - just make it not worth it even when trying to preserve face. The ideal goal is either turning Mainland to be more like their values or being cut loose into a "offically a part of China that we don't deliver mail to" like Taiwan. The Mainland could always go Tiananmen Square part 2 but it would do more damage to their relations, create martyrs, and lead to sanctions and boycotts value.

twblalock 7y ago
There does not seem to be a unified long-term goal among the protesters. Support for independence is strong primarily among young people, so embracing the cause of independence would probably split the protest movement along generational lines. However, everybody knows that Hong Kong's special deal with mainland will expire after 2046 and it doesn't seem like anyone outside the independence movement really has a strategy to preserve democracy after that.
- pimmen 7y ago
  > There does not seem to be a unified long-term goal among the protesters. Universal sufferage has been trending as another talking point too among protesters. This would be very long term because if Hong Kong would allot all seats in the LegCo based on popular vote Beijing would almost certainly lose its ability to legislate this easily and hand pick the government.
  - twblalock 7y ago
    How would universal suffrage last beyond 2046, at which time the mainland government can just rewrite all of the laws?
    - pimmen 7y ago
      Because China, contrary to popular opinion, cares about its image. Dismantling democracy in one sweep at 2046 would look pretty bad, replacing the democratically elected government at 2046 would also look bad.

vore 7y ago

For many of the protestors, that probably isn't an option. After all, if you had the option to flee, risking life and limb to protest against the mainland Chinese government is a much less safe alternative.

_cs2017_ 7y ago

It appears some have prepared their escape in advance: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3019443/hong-kong-protesters-went-taiwan-june-explore-options-asylum https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3019443/hon...