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This entire paper and no reference to Nassim Taleb? They even use his language. Any fans of Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan, etc.? One of his main ideas, th

This entire paper and no reference to Nassim Taleb? They even use his language. Any fans of Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan, etc.? One of his main ideas, that he has followed up with Mathematics, is fragility to model error in the presence of fat-tails. If you’re interested in this kind of stuff I’d highly recommend his books. Anyone with math chops beyond mine checked out his papers? I don’t understand enough of them to endorse or critique.

SquishyPanda23 7y ago
Taleb is a popularizer. Authors who popularize science are typically not cited in academic papers. If a concept or result is used in the paper, the original source is typically cited.
- hash872 7y ago
  This, plus his academic work which is not for a popular audience is supposedly pretty vanilla and doesn't rant and rave about how 'dumb' everyone else in the field is, how all of their models are garbage, etc. He does have professional papers in the academic space, they're just not confrontational or particularly iconoclastic- unlike his popular work where he portrays himself as a bold rebel against convention etc.
  - floki999 7y ago
    Taleb loves to obfuscate simple ideas and arguments
short_sells_poo 7y ago
That's possibly because Taleb does not have a good reputation among most experienced professionals (in my circle in the hedge fund industry). He talked a lot of sense, but then failed to put most of it into practice. In other words, he isn't earning money from what he preaches, he earns money from the preaching. It's all nice and dandy to say "you have to be anti-fragile, expect the unexpected, yadda yadda yadda...", but putting it into practice is extremely difficult. I don't know of a single institution who did so with an audited track record. Sure, there are (were) many tail event specialized funds, but these will not be providing regular income as one would expect from most funds. Rather, they'll tend to constantly bleed money (basically an insurance premium), and then pay out larger sums when the "midden hits the windmill". Even looking at something like 2008, it is often cheaper to just accept the occasional drawdown and weather the storm rather than buy protection against it, because of the amount of headwind your investment will face in terms of the insurance premiums.
- johnrgrace 7y ago
  Taleb one day got into an all out drop down twitter war with my friend Andrew Shaffer, author of books like "50 shames of earl grey" "how to survive a sharknado" etc. His personal unhinged behavior makes everyone suspect of his professional work.
- juskrey 7y ago
  Taleb have earned money exactly the way he is preaching: two or three times in his trading career, and earned big time. Books came after
floki999 7y ago
Luckily Nassim Taleb has stayed away from this market - if anyone knows about tail risk and uncertainty it’s property catastrophe reinsurers.

SquishyPanda23 7y ago

Taleb is a popularizer. Authors who popularize science are typically not cited in academic papers. If a concept or result is used in the paper, the original source is typically cited.

hash872 7y ago
This, plus his academic work which is not for a popular audience is supposedly pretty vanilla and doesn't rant and rave about how 'dumb' everyone else in the field is, how all of their models are garbage, etc. He does have professional papers in the academic space, they're just not confrontational or particularly iconoclastic- unlike his popular work where he portrays himself as a bold rebel against convention etc.
- floki999 7y ago
  Taleb loves to obfuscate simple ideas and arguments

short_sells_poo 7y ago

That's possibly because Taleb does not have a good reputation among most experienced professionals (in my circle in the hedge fund industry). He talked a lot of sense, but then failed to put most of it into practice. In other words, he isn't earning money from what he preaches, he earns money from the preaching. It's all nice and dandy to say "you have to be anti-fragile, expect the unexpected, yadda yadda yadda...", but putting it into practice is extremely difficult. I don't know of a single institution who did so with an audited track record. Sure, there are (were) many tail event specialized funds, but these will not be providing regular income as one would expect from most funds. Rather, they'll tend to constantly bleed money (basically an insurance premium), and then pay out larger sums when the "midden hits the windmill". Even looking at something like 2008, it is often cheaper to just accept the occasional drawdown and weather the storm rather than buy protection against it, because of the amount of headwind your investment will face in terms of the insurance premiums.

johnrgrace 7y ago
Taleb one day got into an all out drop down twitter war with my friend Andrew Shaffer, author of books like "50 shames of earl grey" "how to survive a sharknado" etc. His personal unhinged behavior makes everyone suspect of his professional work.
juskrey 7y ago
Taleb have earned money exactly the way he is preaching: two or three times in his trading career, and earned big time. Books came after

floki999 7y ago

Luckily Nassim Taleb has stayed away from this market - if anyone knows about tail risk and uncertainty it’s property catastrophe reinsurers.