As someone who also often engages in contrarian speculation and is often wrong about it, my advice to you is to thank the person with the correct perspective fo

As someone who also often engages in contrarian speculation and is often wrong about it, my advice to you is to thank the person with the correct perspective for sharing it. If they are sufficiently civilized, they will thank you for adding to the discussion even though it was wrong. For your purposes, it would be more useful to recognize when you're doing this kind of probably-wrong analysis and make the relevant qualifying announcements in your post. It's useful to do, it's even more useful when done in a self-aware fashion. Particularly, it makes it easier for the person with the correct understanding to share it without feeling like they're pissing into the wind. My new favorite phrase is, "correct me if I'm wrong here, but..."