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I think I disagree. If job roles are arranged like a pyramid (wide base of lower paid jobs, with lower number of higher paid jobs above) - the largest benefit

by goldcd 7y ago

I think I disagree. If job roles are arranged like a pyramid (wide base of lower paid jobs, with lower number of higher paid jobs above) - the largest benefit is always going to be automating away the high number of low paid jobs. Amazon might roll out some pick-and-pack droids - but are unlikely to replace Jeff with an AI farm of CEO-leadership. If you say look at say what Uber or AirBNB have done, it's replacing the very bottom interface layer connecting what you want with who provides it. People are still driving people and cleaning rooms for their arrival.

the8472 7y ago
I don't see how this contradicts the argument above.
- goldcd 7y ago
  I don't think I was specifically seeking to contradict anything you said. If it's cost-effective to replace you with a machine, then it's probably going to happen. You can present your shareholders with the nitty-gritty numbers and the result is given. I was just pondering the idea that as you rise up the pyramid we still retain the idea that these people are irreplaceable. If you read any corporate history, there's always somebody portrayed as the bad-guy who clung onto some random notion that then caused the failure - and conversely the good guy that saved the company. You can boil this down a bit to statements like "Why don't we all own an Atari console today?" (usual answer is that people at the top made made decisions, and bottom of the pyramid didn't matter). A more modern example of "AI-CEO-wins" would be say... "Butterfly keyboards on Macs" Data-mining reports that nobody likes them, and correct decision would be to revert to the previous standard. This is seemingly about to happen after many years, many revisions, much expense and ridicule - and my postulated idea as to why this long saga happened, was because the decision was left to exceptionally well paid people, with vested personal interest.
AnthonyMouse 7y ago
> If job roles are arranged like a pyramid (wide base of lower paid jobs, with lower number of higher paid jobs above) - the largest benefit is always going to be automating away the high number of low paid jobs. Not quite. If you can automate a CEO you might cut a million dollars out of the budget -- maybe even ten or a hundred million in some companies. But if you can automate 500K people making $15/hour, that's over fifteen billion dollars a year. Plus benefits and employment overhead. So yes, there's more incentive to automate the larger number of people. But if the same number of people made $25/hour, then it would be over 25 billion a year. So it's both. This has actually played out in practice with both automation and outsourcing. The auto workers were some of the first to go, specifically because there were both a lot of them and they had high wages, resulting in a very large incentive to reduce those costs once they had real competition from Japan. It's not unreasonable for people to be willing to accept less money as one of the ways to stay competitive. The problem is when that amount of money isn't enough to make a living -- but it's not automation that makes stuff cost more. Automation makes stuff cost less. The problem is the high cost of the things that haven't been automated, and the barriers to entry preventing all of these people from doing those jobs, which should in turn bring down those costs -- unless we're dealing with artificial scarcity like zoning regulations. In which case we've identified the real source of the problem.
- wool_gather 7y ago
  > if you can automate 500K people making $15/hour They have 500K total employees, not 500K warehouse workers. That's closer to 90K. Divide your automated-away figure by 5.
  - vonholstein 7y ago
    Suggest a correction, more than 250K making atleast $15/hour - https://www.aboutamazon.com/amazon-fulfillment/our-fulfillment-centers/fulfillment-in-our-buildings/ https://www.aboutamazon.com/amazon-fulfillment/our-fulfillme...

by goldcd 7y ago

the8472 7y ago

I don't see how this contradicts the argument above.

goldcd 7y ago
I don't think I was specifically seeking to contradict anything you said. If it's cost-effective to replace you with a machine, then it's probably going to happen. You can present your shareholders with the nitty-gritty numbers and the result is given. I was just pondering the idea that as you rise up the pyramid we still retain the idea that these people are irreplaceable. If you read any corporate history, there's always somebody portrayed as the bad-guy who clung onto some random notion that then caused the failure - and conversely the good guy that saved the company. You can boil this down a bit to statements like "Why don't we all own an Atari console today?" (usual answer is that people at the top made made decisions, and bottom of the pyramid didn't matter). A more modern example of "AI-CEO-wins" would be say... "Butterfly keyboards on Macs" Data-mining reports that nobody likes them, and correct decision would be to revert to the previous standard. This is seemingly about to happen after many years, many revisions, much expense and ridicule - and my postulated idea as to why this long saga happened, was because the decision was left to exceptionally well paid people, with vested personal interest.

AnthonyMouse 7y ago

> If job roles are arranged like a pyramid (wide base of lower paid jobs, with lower number of higher paid jobs above) - the largest benefit is always going to be automating away the high number of low paid jobs. Not quite. If you can automate a CEO you might cut a million dollars out of the budget -- maybe even ten or a hundred million in some companies. But if you can automate 500K people making $15/hour, that's over fifteen billion dollars a year. Plus benefits and employment overhead. So yes, there's more incentive to automate the larger number of people. But if the same number of people made $25/hour, then it would be over 25 billion a year. So it's both. This has actually played out in practice with both automation and outsourcing. The auto workers were some of the first to go, specifically because there were both a lot of them and they had high wages, resulting in a very large incentive to reduce those costs once they had real competition from Japan. It's not unreasonable for people to be willing to accept less money as one of the ways to stay competitive. The problem is when that amount of money isn't enough to make a living -- but it's not automation that makes stuff cost more. Automation makes stuff cost less. The problem is the high cost of the things that haven't been automated, and the barriers to entry preventing all of these people from doing those jobs, which should in turn bring down those costs -- unless we're dealing with artificial scarcity like zoning regulations. In which case we've identified the real source of the problem.

wool_gather 7y ago
> if you can automate 500K people making $15/hour They have 500K total employees, not 500K warehouse workers. That's closer to 90K. Divide your automated-away figure by 5.
- vonholstein 7y ago
  Suggest a correction, more than 250K making atleast $15/hour - https://www.aboutamazon.com/amazon-fulfillment/our-fulfillment-centers/fulfillment-in-our-buildings/ https://www.aboutamazon.com/amazon-fulfillment/our-fulfillme...