8 ms·

The trouble is that if the "we" who are doing something does not include China and the rest of the world in coordination, then it is just sacrificing local econ

The trouble is that if the "we" who are doing something does not include China and the rest of the world in coordination, then it is just sacrificing local economics in vain. The idea that the rest of the world is going to follow suit automatically based only on morals is far from obvious. It doesn't seem that anyone in the mainstream has really found a way to come to grips with this, that at its core any solution is a global coordination problem. (Even putting aside that half the US has found it more politically useful to deny the problem entirely.)

saagarjha 7y ago
You not helping makes the problem worse, and you helping makes it better. I wouldn't call that work done in vain.
wvenable 7y ago
That's what trade policy is supposed to be about. If the rest of world agrees to a particular standard you make that standard a condition of trade.
amluto 7y ago
This sounds entirely tractable. Institute a carbon tax. In addition, create a tariff on all imports from countries that don’t have an equivalent bona fide carbon tax at the same or higher rate, and set the tariff such that it recovers 150% of the deficiency in taxes vs emissions. The tax needs to be transitive: if countries A and B don’t cooperate and country A reexports something from country B, the tariff needs to account for B’s failure as well. Make the carbon tax revenue neutral, and pitch it as leveling the playing field and a boon to the local economy. Sure, there are tons of details to work out, but I think this should be doable.
- Will_Parker 7y ago
  How do you decide the baseline emissions for the tax and tariffs, internationally? China emits about half the carbon as the USA, per capita. So is the USA willing to pay tax to China unidirectionally, until we get to their level? Does China need to keep their current per capita levels to avoid extra tariffs? How, roughly, could this work politically at a global level, in a way that also works within the politics of each individual country?
  - LoSboccacc 7y ago
    china measured emission are about half of usa measured emission. china non measured emissions are another story. soot is yet another story, because not all co2 is created equally efficiently. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-climatechange-insight/the-unbearable-lightness-of-chinese-emissions-data-idUSKCN0SX0WS20151108 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-climatechange-insig... oh, and there's all the other shit china does of course https://nationalpost.com/news/world/scientists-discover-china-has-been-secretly-emitting-banned-ozone-depleting-gas https://nationalpost.com/news/world/scientists-discover-chin... but somehow people dodge the issue every time with 'but the usa per capita' as if these measurement are really comparable. e: wow, struck a nerve there? sourced with articles, even. now let's wait for dang to come and say this is 'unsubstantive'
    - darkpuma 7y ago
      If that is true, then the situation seems intractable. The Chinese government won't want to pay for anything beyond it's official figures, but the rest of the world has no interest in those bogus figures being used.
      - amluto 7y ago
        I think it’s possible to get a decent overall estimate of emissions in a given area by measuring local variations in CO2 levels.
  - bryanlarsen 7y ago
    There are no payments between countries. It's a tax and an import tariff on countries that don't have the tax (or an equivalent like tax and trade). William Nordhaus has done the math, you can read his papers for more details and appropriate levels. Of course the fact that we didn't implement in 2015 when he did his calculations means that the appropriate levels are higher than they were then.
adrianN 7y ago
You can start blaming China once there is a single country on Earth on track to stay within the 1.5° carbon budget. Until then you should talk to your own politicians why they aren't doing anything.
- chewz 7y ago
  > Until then you should talk to your own politicians why they aren't doing anything. I would love to. But unfortunately the climate problem isn't even a small part of the political dialogue here.
  - adrianN 7y ago
    Greta Thunberg was alone when she started protesting.
seem_2211 7y ago
I grew up in New Zealand, and now live in America. In New Zealand, people with high carbon lifestyles say "well regardless of what we do, nothing matters if Americans don't change" Now I live in America, where people with high carbon lifestyles say "well regardless of what we do, nothing matters if the Chinese don't change" And I'm sure in China they say the same thing back to the US. It's fun shifting the blame.
- Will_Parker 7y ago
  > It's fun shifting the blame. I don't think blame is a useful concept at all. The question is, within the complex world of economics and politics, starting from the point we are at today, what would a pragmatic solution look like, that is actually possible? It is far from obvious that the best solution is to make local sacrifices, then hoping the world will follow. It might be that we all (in the world) need to agree to make sacrifices together first, put some rules and treaties in place, and then start improving together in coordination. It sounds so Machiavellian but, if we are already making the economic sacrifices (that other countries aren't, but would like us to), I wonder if we aren't even losing potential bargaining power in coordinating globally?
  - LoSboccacc 7y ago
    > It is far from obvious that the best solution is to make local sacrifices, then hoping the world will follow. case in point: Europe. taxes over taxes over taxes has pushed energy cost to the point production is non competitive https://businesstech.co.za/news/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Global-Power-prices.png https://businesstech.co.za/news/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/G... net result: local decade long slump plus most heavy industry moved to countries that have less energy cost and less regulation, so it's not clear if the world is actually better off, since you also get pollution from naval transport
  - bryanlarsen 7y ago
    "what would a pragmatic solution look like, that is actually possible?" William Nordhaus' climate club: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.15000001 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.15000001 https://issues.org/climate-clubs-to-overcome-free-riding/ https://issues.org/climate-clubs-to-overcome-free-riding/
greglindahl 7y ago
The entire world got together and signed a treaty to coordinate. You might not think it's perfect, but it exists.

saagarjha 7y ago

You not helping makes the problem worse, and you helping makes it better. I wouldn't call that work done in vain.

wvenable 7y ago

That's what trade policy is supposed to be about. If the rest of world agrees to a particular standard you make that standard a condition of trade.

amluto 7y ago

This sounds entirely tractable. Institute a carbon tax. In addition, create a tariff on all imports from countries that don’t have an equivalent bona fide carbon tax at the same or higher rate, and set the tariff such that it recovers 150% of the deficiency in taxes vs emissions. The tax needs to be transitive: if countries A and B don’t cooperate and country A reexports something from country B, the tariff needs to account for B’s failure as well. Make the carbon tax revenue neutral, and pitch it as leveling the playing field and a boon to the local economy. Sure, there are tons of details to work out, but I think this should be doable.

Will_Parker 7y ago
How do you decide the baseline emissions for the tax and tariffs, internationally? China emits about half the carbon as the USA, per capita. So is the USA willing to pay tax to China unidirectionally, until we get to their level? Does China need to keep their current per capita levels to avoid extra tariffs? How, roughly, could this work politically at a global level, in a way that also works within the politics of each individual country?
- LoSboccacc 7y ago
  china measured emission are about half of usa measured emission. china non measured emissions are another story. soot is yet another story, because not all co2 is created equally efficiently. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-climatechange-insight/the-unbearable-lightness-of-chinese-emissions-data-idUSKCN0SX0WS20151108 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-climatechange-insig... oh, and there's all the other shit china does of course https://nationalpost.com/news/world/scientists-discover-china-has-been-secretly-emitting-banned-ozone-depleting-gas https://nationalpost.com/news/world/scientists-discover-chin... but somehow people dodge the issue every time with 'but the usa per capita' as if these measurement are really comparable. e: wow, struck a nerve there? sourced with articles, even. now let's wait for dang to come and say this is 'unsubstantive'
  - darkpuma 7y ago
    If that is true, then the situation seems intractable. The Chinese government won't want to pay for anything beyond it's official figures, but the rest of the world has no interest in those bogus figures being used.
    - amluto 7y ago
      I think it’s possible to get a decent overall estimate of emissions in a given area by measuring local variations in CO2 levels.
- bryanlarsen 7y ago
  There are no payments between countries. It's a tax and an import tariff on countries that don't have the tax (or an equivalent like tax and trade). William Nordhaus has done the math, you can read his papers for more details and appropriate levels. Of course the fact that we didn't implement in 2015 when he did his calculations means that the appropriate levels are higher than they were then.

adrianN 7y ago

You can start blaming China once there is a single country on Earth on track to stay within the 1.5° carbon budget. Until then you should talk to your own politicians why they aren't doing anything.

chewz 7y ago
> Until then you should talk to your own politicians why they aren't doing anything. I would love to. But unfortunately the climate problem isn't even a small part of the political dialogue here.
- adrianN 7y ago
  Greta Thunberg was alone when she started protesting.

seem_2211 7y ago

I grew up in New Zealand, and now live in America. In New Zealand, people with high carbon lifestyles say "well regardless of what we do, nothing matters if Americans don't change" Now I live in America, where people with high carbon lifestyles say "well regardless of what we do, nothing matters if the Chinese don't change" And I'm sure in China they say the same thing back to the US. It's fun shifting the blame.

Will_Parker 7y ago
> It's fun shifting the blame. I don't think blame is a useful concept at all. The question is, within the complex world of economics and politics, starting from the point we are at today, what would a pragmatic solution look like, that is actually possible? It is far from obvious that the best solution is to make local sacrifices, then hoping the world will follow. It might be that we all (in the world) need to agree to make sacrifices together first, put some rules and treaties in place, and then start improving together in coordination. It sounds so Machiavellian but, if we are already making the economic sacrifices (that other countries aren't, but would like us to), I wonder if we aren't even losing potential bargaining power in coordinating globally?
- LoSboccacc 7y ago
  > It is far from obvious that the best solution is to make local sacrifices, then hoping the world will follow. case in point: Europe. taxes over taxes over taxes has pushed energy cost to the point production is non competitive https://businesstech.co.za/news/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Global-Power-prices.png https://businesstech.co.za/news/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/G... net result: local decade long slump plus most heavy industry moved to countries that have less energy cost and less regulation, so it's not clear if the world is actually better off, since you also get pollution from naval transport
- bryanlarsen 7y ago
  "what would a pragmatic solution look like, that is actually possible?" William Nordhaus' climate club: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.15000001 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.15000001 https://issues.org/climate-clubs-to-overcome-free-riding/ https://issues.org/climate-clubs-to-overcome-free-riding/

greglindahl 7y ago

The entire world got together and signed a treaty to coordinate. You might not think it's perfect, but it exists.