You're right, it was the third bucket. I guess you're right that experience teaches you about the potential sources of problems; it's just that I can already th

You're right, it was the third bucket. I guess you're right that experience teaches you about the potential sources of problems; it's just that I can already think of many, many such potential problem sources, and the only strategy I have is trying them out in order of likeliness. But 10x engineer or not, there's always he risk of running into the least likely problem - or, more likely, running into one of the problems in the long tail of individually very unlikely problems. It'd be nice if one could learn to lessen the impact of those worst cases, but I guess the primary thing one can grow in is making them less frequent.