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Japan is a decade or so "ahead" of USA in population decline, so it's worth looking at for hints about what might happen. They're starting to encourage immigrat
by OliverJones 7y ago
Japan is a decade or so "ahead" of USA in population decline, so it's worth looking at for hints about what might happen. They're starting to encourage immigration; a big change for that country.
Up until 1832 England's Industrial Revolution cities had severe under-representation in their Parliament: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_Act_1832 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_Act_1832. (In the USA, by comparison, the state of Massachusetts was a Calvinist theocracy until 1833: England was ahead.) So the USA's allocation of electoral power followed England's example as the industrial revolution was just emerging, not when it was mature. USA's myth of one person one vote isn't the truth: it has the same problems as early 19th century England in that respect.
An inexorable positive (unstable) feedback loop makes rich crowded cities get richer and more crowded. We hackers know this: startups locate in the Bay Area even though it's the highest of high-rent districts and makes us burn through investor money faster. Tech needs tech (Bay area). Finance needs finance (New York). Beltway bandits need beltway bandits (DC).
But this effect doesn't last forever. Detroit (cars) used to be that way: no more. Lowell, Massachusetts (textiles) used to be that way: no more.
The big cities need more housing. To make that happen they need more robust infrastructure. That means they need bigger budgets. USA's rural politicians have propagated the myth that taxation is theft for a long time now, so it's hard to pay for that infrastructure. California's starting to escape the Proposition 13 trap laid for it by Howard Jarvis 45 years ago. It's possible other jurisdictions can escape too.
More housing closer to work, and better infrastructure, can only lead to less hectic lives for city-dwellers. That will lead to more sex and more kiddos. But, by the time that happens, it's possible that software work will have moved to less crowded places and something other industry will dominate.
- DrAwdeOccarim 7y agoYou know, your point of "better infrastructure, can only lead to less hectic lives for city-dwellers. That will lead to more sex and more kiddos." rings really true. I wonder if all these reasons/explanations given in this article and that I see floating around boils down to free time. Like how when NYC had that summer blackout a few years ago there was a mini baby boom ~9 months later. The lack of power meant everyone was board and hot and in the dark so they decided to bone. The frenetic pace of life without support systems (e.g., close extended family) has just pushed sex down as a priority. So the way to get people to make more babies is to give them more free time. I bet this is an evolutionary thing too. If you're constantly on the run from predators and stuff, you shouldn't be making children. Only when things calm down would it make sense to procreate. So sex drive is probably directly related to free time...