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Mac App store to do $1B in 2011? Seems pretty unlikely to me. Looks like the mobile store in June '10 had done about ~1.3B in total since launch [1]. A key diff

by trotsky 16y ago

Mac App store to do $1B in 2011? Seems pretty unlikely to me. Looks like the mobile store in June '10 had done about ~1.3B in total since launch [1]. A key difference here is choice and installed base - every iPhone app purchase has to go through Apple's store, and nobody had a big existing library of software they had purchased for the platform. I'm sure apple will do quite well with their Mac store, but the dynamics are different enough that I wouldn't expect them to soundly crush the mobile store in their first year - let alone an incomplete calendar year. [1] http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_appstore_stats_infographic.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_ap...

brianbreslin 16y ago
My guess is based on the fact apps will retail for more than iOS apps, so the gross sales will hit $1B quicker. Think $20/app vs $2 though iOS apps probably benefit from impulse shopping a lot
- trotsky 16y ago
  What's the size of the OS X software market in total? Guesstimating* , it looks like it was somewhere like $5B-$8B in 2008. Strip out OS sales, large licensees, unsupported environments, unsupported regions and all non-SOHO business sales and what do you figure is left? $2B-$3B maybe? Hard for me to believe that Apple is going to be able to take a 50% chunk out of retail and direct sales in the first year, especially on the high end packages like office or photoshop. * http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Policy/Security/General/sw_factsfigures.ashx http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Pol...
  - glhaynes 16y ago
    I agree with you that $1B seems optimistic for 2011, but consider also that the Mac App Store may increase the total number of apps sold, perhaps drastically. I certainly expect I'll buy more Mac apps when they're more easily discoverable, more easily managed, and one-click-purchaseable.
chaolam 16y ago
If Apple releases Lion as a Mac App store purchase, that could go a long way to approaching that $1Bn.

by trotsky 16y ago

brianbreslin 16y ago

My guess is based on the fact apps will retail for more than iOS apps, so the gross sales will hit $1B quicker. Think $20/app vs $2 though iOS apps probably benefit from impulse shopping a lot

trotsky 16y ago
What's the size of the OS X software market in total? Guesstimating* , it looks like it was somewhere like $5B-$8B in 2008. Strip out OS sales, large licensees, unsupported environments, unsupported regions and all non-SOHO business sales and what do you figure is left? $2B-$3B maybe? Hard for me to believe that Apple is going to be able to take a 50% chunk out of retail and direct sales in the first year, especially on the high end packages like office or photoshop. * http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Policy/Security/General/sw_factsfigures.ashx http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Pol...
- glhaynes 16y ago
  I agree with you that $1B seems optimistic for 2011, but consider also that the Mac App Store may increase the total number of apps sold, perhaps drastically. I certainly expect I'll buy more Mac apps when they're more easily discoverable, more easily managed, and one-click-purchaseable.

chaolam 16y ago

If Apple releases Lion as a Mac App store purchase, that could go a long way to approaching that $1Bn.