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These are all good and all, but does anyone see a reason for the "Likelihood: Very likely" below each prediction? Every single one just says "likely" in differe
by yan 16y ago
These are all good and all, but does anyone see a reason for the "Likelihood: Very likely" below each prediction? Every single one just says "likely" in different wording.
Is it to make readers more agreeable? Is it to note authority?
- brianbreslin 16y agoI was told I should put my level of confidence in each one by a friend. I had originally skipped that.
- gwern 16y agoIf you've put enough thought into them to have a confidence level, why not give a specific probability? Then you will be able to see (to some extent) how you are poorly calibrated - overconfident, underconfident, etc. For example, I have a ton of judged predictions on http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern so you can see my problem - low self-esteem. (I expect to take some losses when all my 2010 predictions expire in a few days, but the overall trend of underconfidence will remain.)