4 ms·

2011 Predictions

32 points by pelle 16y ago

yan 16y ago
These are all good and all, but does anyone see a reason for the "Likelihood: Very likely" below each prediction? Every single one just says "likely" in different wording. Is it to make readers more agreeable? Is it to note authority?
- brianbreslin 16y ago
  I was told I should put my level of confidence in each one by a friend. I had originally skipped that.
  - gwern 16y ago
    If you've put enough thought into them to have a confidence level, why not give a specific probability? Then you will be able to see (to some extent) how you are poorly calibrated - overconfident, underconfident, etc. For example, I have a ton of judged predictions on http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern so you can see my problem - low self-esteem. (I expect to take some losses when all my 2010 predictions expire in a few days, but the overall trend of underconfidence will remain.)
brianbreslin 16y ago
this is a follow up to http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1983670 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1983670
glhaynes 16y ago
Apple has said that the Mac App Store will be available in early January for Snow Leopard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it be "even better" on Lion once it eventually ships, but Snow Leopard is definitely supported.
- brianbreslin 16y ago
  I think a lot of people are still on regular leopard or older versions of OS X. So it would make sense for apple to flood the market with Lion once its out. Lion will have a tighter app store integration for sure.
trotsky 16y ago
Mac App store to do $1B in 2011? Seems pretty unlikely to me. Looks like the mobile store in June '10 had done about ~1.3B in total since launch [1]. A key difference here is choice and installed base - every iPhone app purchase has to go through Apple's store, and nobody had a big existing library of software they had purchased for the platform. I'm sure apple will do quite well with their Mac store, but the dynamics are different enough that I wouldn't expect them to soundly crush the mobile store in their first year - let alone an incomplete calendar year. [1] http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_appstore_stats_infographic.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_ap...
- brianbreslin 16y ago
  My guess is based on the fact apps will retail for more than iOS apps, so the gross sales will hit $1B quicker. Think $20/app vs $2 though iOS apps probably benefit from impulse shopping a lot
  - trotsky 16y ago
    What's the size of the OS X software market in total? Guesstimating* , it looks like it was somewhere like $5B-$8B in 2008. Strip out OS sales, large licensees, unsupported environments, unsupported regions and all non-SOHO business sales and what do you figure is left? $2B-$3B maybe? Hard for me to believe that Apple is going to be able to take a 50% chunk out of retail and direct sales in the first year, especially on the high end packages like office or photoshop. * http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Policy/Security/General/sw_factsfigures.ashx http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Pol...
    - glhaynes 16y ago
      I agree with you that $1B seems optimistic for 2011, but consider also that the Mac App Store may increase the total number of apps sold, perhaps drastically. I certainly expect I'll buy more Mac apps when they're more easily discoverable, more easily managed, and one-click-purchaseable.
- 16y ago
pan69 16y ago
Does anyone have any links to 2010 predictions of this kind?
- kenjackson 16y ago
  http://brianbreslin.com/10-predictions-for-2010/ http://brianbreslin.com/10-predictions-for-2010/
disruptivetech 16y ago
Thanks for those predictions. Futurology, whether extrapolating trends or trying to predict disruptions is pretty tricky. I've got a couple of old books from the 1920's which attempt to show what the future holds. Here are some of those images [scanned in and from AM LOW]: http://picasaweb.google.com/brettdonovan/AMLOW#5471538663829616354 http://picasaweb.google.com/brettdonovan/AMLOW#5471538663829... It would seem that one can extrapolate rather well. Particularly well on the abundant communications, however as always - the flying car is out of reach.
- treeface 16y ago
  Presumably the faucet hose recoils automatically? Wow that really IS futuristic.
kin 16y ago
All of these are predictions of movements of existing products, which are interesting. But, any opinion or predictions for new products such as Chrome OS? Google Me? Emerging startups like Diaspora or Frid.ge trying to take out Facebook? Social gaming skipping Facebook and doing something revolutionary?
- brianbreslin 16y ago
  I'll make a prediction right now on several of those: diaspora and fridge won't make it out of super niche.
thinkcomp 16y ago
Mobile payments will start to be popular. Obopay and Bling Nation will be left behind.
3pt14159 16y ago
There already have been youtube millionaires. The auto-tune guys, who netted 500k on the "hide your kids, hide your wife" song and much more from the rest of their tracks. Also, Jon la Joie is up there too, as well as that girl who talks about 17 year old clothes and make up.
- brianbreslin 16y ago
  I should have specified. I was thinking $ millionaire from youtube ad rev share, nothing else. autotune guys did bank already.
gwern 16y ago
1. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2016 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2016 2. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2017 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2017 3. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2018 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2018 4. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2019 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2019 5. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2020 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2020 6. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2021 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2021 7. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2022 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2022 8. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2023 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2023 9. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2024 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2024 10. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2025 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2025 (Also, looks like Brian forgot to ever do a wrap-up for his 2008 predictions - http://brianbreslin.com/2008-predictions/ http://brianbreslin.com/2008-predictions/ and http://brianbreslin.com/category/predictions/ http://brianbreslin.com/category/predictions/ )

2011 Predictions

32 points by pelle 16y ago

yan 16y ago

These are all good and all, but does anyone see a reason for the "Likelihood: Very likely" below each prediction? Every single one just says "likely" in different wording. Is it to make readers more agreeable? Is it to note authority?

brianbreslin 16y ago
I was told I should put my level of confidence in each one by a friend. I had originally skipped that.
- gwern 16y ago
  If you've put enough thought into them to have a confidence level, why not give a specific probability? Then you will be able to see (to some extent) how you are poorly calibrated - overconfident, underconfident, etc. For example, I have a ton of judged predictions on http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern http://predictionbook.com/users/gwern so you can see my problem - low self-esteem. (I expect to take some losses when all my 2010 predictions expire in a few days, but the overall trend of underconfidence will remain.)

brianbreslin 16y ago

this is a follow up to http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1983670 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1983670

glhaynes 16y ago

Apple has said that the Mac App Store will be available in early January for Snow Leopard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it be "even better" on Lion once it eventually ships, but Snow Leopard is definitely supported.

brianbreslin 16y ago
I think a lot of people are still on regular leopard or older versions of OS X. So it would make sense for apple to flood the market with Lion once its out. Lion will have a tighter app store integration for sure.

trotsky 16y ago

Mac App store to do $1B in 2011? Seems pretty unlikely to me. Looks like the mobile store in June '10 had done about ~1.3B in total since launch [1]. A key difference here is choice and installed base - every iPhone app purchase has to go through Apple's store, and nobody had a big existing library of software they had purchased for the platform. I'm sure apple will do quite well with their Mac store, but the dynamics are different enough that I wouldn't expect them to soundly crush the mobile store in their first year - let alone an incomplete calendar year. [1] http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_appstore_stats_infographic.php http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/breaking_down_apples_ap...

brianbreslin 16y ago
My guess is based on the fact apps will retail for more than iOS apps, so the gross sales will hit $1B quicker. Think $20/app vs $2 though iOS apps probably benefit from impulse shopping a lot
- trotsky 16y ago
  What's the size of the OS X software market in total? Guesstimating* , it looks like it was somewhere like $5B-$8B in 2008. Strip out OS sales, large licensees, unsupported environments, unsupported regions and all non-SOHO business sales and what do you figure is left? $2B-$3B maybe? Hard for me to believe that Apple is going to be able to take a 50% chunk out of retail and direct sales in the first year, especially on the high end packages like office or photoshop. * http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Policy/Security/General/sw_factsfigures.ashx http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Pol...
  - glhaynes 16y ago
    I agree with you that $1B seems optimistic for 2011, but consider also that the Mac App Store may increase the total number of apps sold, perhaps drastically. I certainly expect I'll buy more Mac apps when they're more easily discoverable, more easily managed, and one-click-purchaseable.
16y ago

pan69 16y ago

Does anyone have any links to 2010 predictions of this kind?

kenjackson 16y ago
http://brianbreslin.com/10-predictions-for-2010/ http://brianbreslin.com/10-predictions-for-2010/

disruptivetech 16y ago

Thanks for those predictions. Futurology, whether extrapolating trends or trying to predict disruptions is pretty tricky. I've got a couple of old books from the 1920's which attempt to show what the future holds. Here are some of those images [scanned in and from AM LOW]: http://picasaweb.google.com/brettdonovan/AMLOW#5471538663829616354 http://picasaweb.google.com/brettdonovan/AMLOW#5471538663829... It would seem that one can extrapolate rather well. Particularly well on the abundant communications, however as always - the flying car is out of reach.

treeface 16y ago
Presumably the faucet hose recoils automatically? Wow that really IS futuristic.

kin 16y ago

All of these are predictions of movements of existing products, which are interesting. But, any opinion or predictions for new products such as Chrome OS? Google Me? Emerging startups like Diaspora or Frid.ge trying to take out Facebook? Social gaming skipping Facebook and doing something revolutionary?

brianbreslin 16y ago
I'll make a prediction right now on several of those: diaspora and fridge won't make it out of super niche.

thinkcomp 16y ago

Mobile payments will start to be popular. Obopay and Bling Nation will be left behind.

3pt14159 16y ago

There already have been youtube millionaires. The auto-tune guys, who netted 500k on the "hide your kids, hide your wife" song and much more from the rest of their tracks. Also, Jon la Joie is up there too, as well as that girl who talks about 17 year old clothes and make up.

brianbreslin 16y ago
I should have specified. I was thinking $ millionaire from youtube ad rev share, nothing else. autotune guys did bank already.

gwern 16y ago

1. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2016 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2016 2. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2017 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2017 3. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2018 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2018 4. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2019 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2019 5. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2020 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2020 6. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2021 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2021 7. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2022 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2022 8. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2023 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2023 9. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2024 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2024 10. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2025 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2025 (Also, looks like Brian forgot to ever do a wrap-up for his 2008 predictions - http://brianbreslin.com/2008-predictions/ http://brianbreslin.com/2008-predictions/ and http://brianbreslin.com/category/predictions/ http://brianbreslin.com/category/predictions/ )