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I was in China last month. Running out of gas is not exactly the analogy I would’ve chosen to describe the most thriving economy I have ever seen. As a side no

I was in China last month. Running out of gas is not exactly the analogy I would’ve chosen to describe the most thriving economy I have ever seen. As a side note, I have visited many companies while there and the Tencent HQ was the most awe-inspiring building, leaving the Bay Area architecture and building amenities looking incredibly dull.

jariel 7y ago
"I was in China last month. Running out of gas is not exactly the analogy I would’ve chosen to describe the most thriving economy I have ever seen." What you 'saw' is besides the point. The official GDP numbers show the economy slowing down to quickly. This is not a 'prediction' - it's happening. Moreover, those numbers are grossly inflated. Objective measurement puts China at about 4.5%, which is even lower. China is slowing down and will not leap into 1st world territory as did Taiwan, Japan and S. Korea, unless something fundamentally changes. China will likely be a major superpower, but won't develop the kind of GDP/capita we see in other rich nations.
goatinaboat 7y ago
How much of China did you see? You could not gain a meaningful understanding of even a much smaller country from visiting a single city. E.g. NYC is not America, so Shenzen is not China.
- gcatalfamo 7y ago
  I saw Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and collaterally, Hong Kong and it was for business. Yes there were things I saw that showed the inherent poorness of the population but the overwhelming power of the industrial ecosystem and overall progress of the country despite “zero privacy” was breathtaking. I have been talking with local about the privacy thing which was super interesting but it’s off topic here.
dageshi 7y ago
The two are not necessarily the opposite of each other, I remember visiting Japan for the first time after hearing Japan had been in a relative economic slump for near decades, at the time I recall thinking "if that's what economic slump looks like I'll take some of that...". In retrospect it's possible to see a thriving economy as the apex of a bubble but almost impossible to determine that at the time. The thing about China is though, it has had a phenomenal level of growth for a very long time, one would think this cannot go on forever and at some point their system must be tested by a real recession.

jariel 7y ago

"I was in China last month. Running out of gas is not exactly the analogy I would’ve chosen to describe the most thriving economy I have ever seen." What you 'saw' is besides the point. The official GDP numbers show the economy slowing down to quickly. This is not a 'prediction' - it's happening. Moreover, those numbers are grossly inflated. Objective measurement puts China at about 4.5%, which is even lower. China is slowing down and will not leap into 1st world territory as did Taiwan, Japan and S. Korea, unless something fundamentally changes. China will likely be a major superpower, but won't develop the kind of GDP/capita we see in other rich nations.

goatinaboat 7y ago

How much of China did you see? You could not gain a meaningful understanding of even a much smaller country from visiting a single city. E.g. NYC is not America, so Shenzen is not China.

gcatalfamo 7y ago
I saw Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and collaterally, Hong Kong and it was for business. Yes there were things I saw that showed the inherent poorness of the population but the overwhelming power of the industrial ecosystem and overall progress of the country despite “zero privacy” was breathtaking. I have been talking with local about the privacy thing which was super interesting but it’s off topic here.

dageshi 7y ago

The two are not necessarily the opposite of each other, I remember visiting Japan for the first time after hearing Japan had been in a relative economic slump for near decades, at the time I recall thinking "if that's what economic slump looks like I'll take some of that...". In retrospect it's possible to see a thriving economy as the apex of a bubble but almost impossible to determine that at the time. The thing about China is though, it has had a phenomenal level of growth for a very long time, one would think this cannot go on forever and at some point their system must be tested by a real recession.