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For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/

For those who have not followed US media coverage of China, this a very enlightening piece : The Land that Failed to Fail. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/china-rules.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/ch... I recall the New York Times, WSJ, and particularly Bloomberg from 2011 to 2014 have run uncountable number of articles unanimously, unequivocally predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy. I really hate to use the word "western media bias", but if you look at the facts, it's hard to see otherwise.

stunt 7y ago
Don’t underestimate what media can do. One could argue that’s the power of media. If media publishes uncountable number of articles, sure investors and politicians will follow. Obviously there are more than one reason on the table. One being nobody wants too much power at Chinese hand and many countries are just worried about it. (This alone can have a lot of valid and invalid reasons) Second is of course now some other countries are following a similar strategy to compete. Like India and a few other countries in East Asia. Third, one strategy doesn’t scale forever. And perhaps many more.
- throwaway434 7y ago
  Now China’s censorship of foreign “news’ makes sense.
- deehouie 7y ago
  Oh, I agree. Media like NYTimes and Bloomberg have enormous influence over the sphere of finance and investments. They have and will continue to exert equal and probably more influence on how US money is invested overseas. But that does not alter the fact that they've been wrong about China all these times.
- deehouie 7y ago
  On the topic of scaling (or more appropriately down-scaling) the Chinese model, I'd love to read some serious academic/scholarly papers about that. Like Western capitalism currently in practice here (i mean US), the Chinese model certainly has its limitations. There is zero chance, I mean absolute zero probability that China could grow at 6+% forever. But the fact that a country of 1.2 billion population has emerged from dire poverty just some short 50 yrs ago into one of the most vibrant economies in the world is a fact that's truly inspiring. This is one of those examples, as in predicting the stock market, where the majority opinion is always wrong.
abledon 7y ago
cached version: http://archive.is/AFbNg http://archive.is/AFbNg
Mirioron 7y ago
How's China going to solve its housing bubble? Because we've heard about that building up, but there seems to have been no solution. Just because it hasn't blown up yet doesn't mean it won't.
- kristianov 7y ago
  The Chinese government is really smart about it. From what I understand, it goes at follows: the price bubble will not burst if real estate market has little to no transactions. The trick is to limit the number of eligible buyers with policies, so that the price can only go up. It's really genius if you think about it. Chinese housing market is NOT a free market, and the government is the biggest player (and judge) in it. If it is made-up from the beginning, how can it collapse? Well, unless the government collapses first.
- chillacy 7y ago
  Anyone can predict a bear market... the trick is when.
  - Mirioron 7y ago
    You can't really predict a 'when' if the government controls the economy. But I would say that a 'when' doesn't matter much if it happens at some point.
tepidandroid 7y ago
And The Economist. Can’t forget The Economist’s constant and sustained death knelling over China’s economy over the years. I just file all these away along with the other 8447372 similar articles predicting the imminent collapse of China.
- deehouie 7y ago
  Can you pls post some links. I'm a die-hard collector of these articles.
  - clydethefrog 7y ago
    https://www.economist.com/search?q=china%20economy%20falling https://www.economist.com/search?q=china%20economy%20falling
  - tepidandroid 7y ago
    They are mentally filed away, so I don't have them off-hand sorry :) But it was largely due to their lack of credibility on China that I had to unsubscribe. Open up any Economist article on China and you'll quickly see what I mean.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  It's like practical fusion, always 5-10 years away. The reasoning appears to be that since the Chinese refuse to follow the western consensus, their economy must then collapse.
  - repolfx 7y ago
    In fairness, the examples we have of communist economies have all eventually collapsed, although it took many many decades for the USSR to do so. China, so far, hasn't collapsed. Does that mean there's something fundamentally different about it that avoids the fate of the USSR, Venezuela etc? Maybe. But it's not like "fails to be capitalist, will collapse" is totally specious reasoning. It's just extrapolation from past example.
- 7y ago
LiquidSky 7y ago
Leave it to the NYT to show us the evils of the NYT, I guess. But isn't it all about timing? You could have said a similar thing about articles predicting the end of the 2000s-era growth in the US up until 2007-2008. They're so obviously wrong until they're not.
- deehouie 7y ago
  If you buy one lottery ticket everyday from the day you're born until the day you die, you may win it big, if you're lucky.
factsaresacred 7y ago
The author of that piece, Philip. P. Pan, wrote one of the most remarkable books I've read on China: Out of Mao's shadow - https://www.amazon.com/Out-Maos-Shadow-Struggle-China-ebook/dp/B001B8NWGY https://www.amazon.com/Out-Maos-Shadow-Struggle-China-ebook/... It's a gem for those seeking to understand - and distinguish between - China, the country and its people, and China, the State.
piokoch 7y ago
We'll see I guess. "Big news" is often about China collapse. I like to look for "small news" that not many people pay attention but they show a bit different picture. Picture of China moving slowly and patiently in many directions to make sure collapse will not happen and that nobody (that is US) can stop China economy development. It is worth to read about huge investments in many African countries and generous credits Chinese government is giving away. In fact, the only missing piece is a big oil producer that will agree to abandon trading oil in US dollars (Iran is a candidate, that's why US suddenly started pushing on sanctions against it.) It is worth to read about new routes from China to Europe. Right now there is an operation train connection between China and Poland (Slawkow) that uses wide rail (https://euterminal.pl/en/ https://euterminal.pl/en/). Another train connection like this will be available soon to Vienna. A few days ago final agreement was made to built a highway that would connect China and Berlin. Chinese investors own almost whole harbor in Piraeus, Greece. And so on. For me it looks like a plan to be able to trade with Africa, Europe without risk that US can stop this somehow. I would not underestimate China, although, personally, I am not very happy about China expansion, as their political system is truly horrible and against human dignity as I perceive it.

stunt 7y ago

Don’t underestimate what media can do. One could argue that’s the power of media. If media publishes uncountable number of articles, sure investors and politicians will follow. Obviously there are more than one reason on the table. One being nobody wants too much power at Chinese hand and many countries are just worried about it. (This alone can have a lot of valid and invalid reasons) Second is of course now some other countries are following a similar strategy to compete. Like India and a few other countries in East Asia. Third, one strategy doesn’t scale forever. And perhaps many more.

throwaway434 7y ago
Now China’s censorship of foreign “news’ makes sense.
deehouie 7y ago
Oh, I agree. Media like NYTimes and Bloomberg have enormous influence over the sphere of finance and investments. They have and will continue to exert equal and probably more influence on how US money is invested overseas. But that does not alter the fact that they've been wrong about China all these times.
deehouie 7y ago
On the topic of scaling (or more appropriately down-scaling) the Chinese model, I'd love to read some serious academic/scholarly papers about that. Like Western capitalism currently in practice here (i mean US), the Chinese model certainly has its limitations. There is zero chance, I mean absolute zero probability that China could grow at 6+% forever. But the fact that a country of 1.2 billion population has emerged from dire poverty just some short 50 yrs ago into one of the most vibrant economies in the world is a fact that's truly inspiring. This is one of those examples, as in predicting the stock market, where the majority opinion is always wrong.

abledon 7y ago

cached version: http://archive.is/AFbNg http://archive.is/AFbNg

Mirioron 7y ago

How's China going to solve its housing bubble? Because we've heard about that building up, but there seems to have been no solution. Just because it hasn't blown up yet doesn't mean it won't.

kristianov 7y ago
The Chinese government is really smart about it. From what I understand, it goes at follows: the price bubble will not burst if real estate market has little to no transactions. The trick is to limit the number of eligible buyers with policies, so that the price can only go up. It's really genius if you think about it. Chinese housing market is NOT a free market, and the government is the biggest player (and judge) in it. If it is made-up from the beginning, how can it collapse? Well, unless the government collapses first.
chillacy 7y ago
Anyone can predict a bear market... the trick is when.
- Mirioron 7y ago
  You can't really predict a 'when' if the government controls the economy. But I would say that a 'when' doesn't matter much if it happens at some point.

tepidandroid 7y ago

And The Economist. Can’t forget The Economist’s constant and sustained death knelling over China’s economy over the years. I just file all these away along with the other 8447372 similar articles predicting the imminent collapse of China.

deehouie 7y ago
Can you pls post some links. I'm a die-hard collector of these articles.
- clydethefrog 7y ago
  https://www.economist.com/search?q=china%20economy%20falling https://www.economist.com/search?q=china%20economy%20falling
- tepidandroid 7y ago
  They are mentally filed away, so I don't have them off-hand sorry :) But it was largely due to their lack of credibility on China that I had to unsubscribe. Open up any Economist article on China and you'll quickly see what I mean.
Gibbon1 7y ago
It's like practical fusion, always 5-10 years away. The reasoning appears to be that since the Chinese refuse to follow the western consensus, their economy must then collapse.
- repolfx 7y ago
  In fairness, the examples we have of communist economies have all eventually collapsed, although it took many many decades for the USSR to do so. China, so far, hasn't collapsed. Does that mean there's something fundamentally different about it that avoids the fate of the USSR, Venezuela etc? Maybe. But it's not like "fails to be capitalist, will collapse" is totally specious reasoning. It's just extrapolation from past example.
7y ago

LiquidSky 7y ago

Leave it to the NYT to show us the evils of the NYT, I guess. But isn't it all about timing? You could have said a similar thing about articles predicting the end of the 2000s-era growth in the US up until 2007-2008. They're so obviously wrong until they're not.

deehouie 7y ago
If you buy one lottery ticket everyday from the day you're born until the day you die, you may win it big, if you're lucky.

factsaresacred 7y ago

The author of that piece, Philip. P. Pan, wrote one of the most remarkable books I've read on China: Out of Mao's shadow - https://www.amazon.com/Out-Maos-Shadow-Struggle-China-ebook/dp/B001B8NWGY https://www.amazon.com/Out-Maos-Shadow-Struggle-China-ebook/... It's a gem for those seeking to understand - and distinguish between - China, the country and its people, and China, the State.

piokoch 7y ago

We'll see I guess. "Big news" is often about China collapse. I like to look for "small news" that not many people pay attention but they show a bit different picture. Picture of China moving slowly and patiently in many directions to make sure collapse will not happen and that nobody (that is US) can stop China economy development. It is worth to read about huge investments in many African countries and generous credits Chinese government is giving away. In fact, the only missing piece is a big oil producer that will agree to abandon trading oil in US dollars (Iran is a candidate, that's why US suddenly started pushing on sanctions against it.) It is worth to read about new routes from China to Europe. Right now there is an operation train connection between China and Poland (Slawkow) that uses wide rail (https://euterminal.pl/en/ https://euterminal.pl/en/). Another train connection like this will be available soon to Vienna. A few days ago final agreement was made to built a highway that would connect China and Berlin. Chinese investors own almost whole harbor in Piraeus, Greece. And so on. For me it looks like a plan to be able to trade with Africa, Europe without risk that US can stop this somehow. I would not underestimate China, although, personally, I am not very happy about China expansion, as their political system is truly horrible and against human dignity as I perceive it.