4 ms·

Let me gently suggest you read up on Hong Kong a little bit more. No need to go back 40 yrs. Just last 5. The Umbrella movement in 2014 had greater participatio

Let me gently suggest you read up on Hong Kong a little bit more. No need to go back 40 yrs. Just last 5. The Umbrella movement in 2014 had greater participation, attracted much more international media attention, subsequently wreaked much greater havoc in the territory, and lasted much longer than the current protest. Yet, the Chief Executive at the time, Mr. C. Y. Leung, did not resign. Go figure.

jillesvangurp 7y ago
Mr. Leung was indeed allowed to serve his term but not allowed to re-run (which was his ambition). The Umbrella movement ended his political career and he served out his term as a lame duck. No matter how you spin this, he basically left the political scene with his tail between his legs. Carrie Lam is similarly politically dead. Unlike Leung, I expect they won't keep her around as the protests are increasingly about her specifically. Neither Lam nor Leung had any say in this matter; it's all about what Bejing allows to happen. Clearly their handling of the Umbrella movement just set them up for what's happening now, which in terms of scale and popular support is a problem for the current leadership because their ability to keep the lid on this domestically is not infinite and they need the two party system to be a success to keep a grip on Taiwan, which is another thing they seem to not have under control lately. So, I'm predicting they will seek to remove the problem a bit sooner and ms. Lam seems like she's expendable, politically dead anyway, and a big part of their problem.
- my_username_is_ 7y ago
  There's no reason to keep her around either. Every time there's a new protest, the first demands are: 1. Full withdrawal of the extradition bill, 2. Carrie Lam resigns. The bill is politically unviable for the foreseeable future, and Lam is its figurehead. If they want to take steam out of the protests, they need to address these sticking points. If they have a new CE come in, fully drop the bill, and actually set up an independent investigation into police brutality, it would take a lot of wind out of the sails of these protests before people dig their heels in on other issues (abolish the functional constituencies, establish universal suffrage, etc.)
hker 7y ago
Disclosure: Hong Konger I agree with the suggestion that the Chief Executive will not resign right away, as does some rumor [1]. > The Umbrella movement in 2014 had greater participation, attracted much more international media attention, subsequently wreaked much greater havoc in the territory, and lasted much longer than the current protest. However, I disagree that the Umbrella movement had greater participation, nor attracted much more international media attention. For one, due to timing and other factors (such as the extradition bill concerns foreign diaspora in Hong Kong, and the ongoing trade tariffs and “new cold war”), this protest coincides with more media attention and actual international actions, in particular the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019” [2], which could put real pressure to get a response from China. [1]: https://shanghaiist.com/2019/07/16/hong-kong-chief-executive-carrie-lam-wants-to-resign-but-beijing-wont-let-her/ https://shanghaiist.com/2019/07/16/hong-kong-chief-executive... [2]: https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-campaign-urging-american-politicians-support-bill-citys-democracy-rights/ https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-...

jillesvangurp 7y ago

Mr. Leung was indeed allowed to serve his term but not allowed to re-run (which was his ambition). The Umbrella movement ended his political career and he served out his term as a lame duck. No matter how you spin this, he basically left the political scene with his tail between his legs. Carrie Lam is similarly politically dead. Unlike Leung, I expect they won't keep her around as the protests are increasingly about her specifically. Neither Lam nor Leung had any say in this matter; it's all about what Bejing allows to happen. Clearly their handling of the Umbrella movement just set them up for what's happening now, which in terms of scale and popular support is a problem for the current leadership because their ability to keep the lid on this domestically is not infinite and they need the two party system to be a success to keep a grip on Taiwan, which is another thing they seem to not have under control lately. So, I'm predicting they will seek to remove the problem a bit sooner and ms. Lam seems like she's expendable, politically dead anyway, and a big part of their problem.

my_username_is_ 7y ago
There's no reason to keep her around either. Every time there's a new protest, the first demands are: 1. Full withdrawal of the extradition bill, 2. Carrie Lam resigns. The bill is politically unviable for the foreseeable future, and Lam is its figurehead. If they want to take steam out of the protests, they need to address these sticking points. If they have a new CE come in, fully drop the bill, and actually set up an independent investigation into police brutality, it would take a lot of wind out of the sails of these protests before people dig their heels in on other issues (abolish the functional constituencies, establish universal suffrage, etc.)

hker 7y ago

Disclosure: Hong Konger I agree with the suggestion that the Chief Executive will not resign right away, as does some rumor [1]. > The Umbrella movement in 2014 had greater participation, attracted much more international media attention, subsequently wreaked much greater havoc in the territory, and lasted much longer than the current protest. However, I disagree that the Umbrella movement had greater participation, nor attracted much more international media attention. For one, due to timing and other factors (such as the extradition bill concerns foreign diaspora in Hong Kong, and the ongoing trade tariffs and “new cold war”), this protest coincides with more media attention and actual international actions, in particular the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019” [2], which could put real pressure to get a response from China. [1]: https://shanghaiist.com/2019/07/16/hong-kong-chief-executive-carrie-lam-wants-to-resign-but-beijing-wont-let-her/ https://shanghaiist.com/2019/07/16/hong-kong-chief-executive... [2]: https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-campaign-urging-american-politicians-support-bill-citys-democracy-rights/ https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-...