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but they were only valuable to the UK because it was their gateway to China. it has always been about the relationship to China

by bllguo 7y ago

derefr 7y ago
North Korea is valuable to Russia and China because it keeps (US-allied) South Korea away from having a land bridge into either of those countries. In other words, entire countries can be propped up for decades not on their worth as an ally or vassal, but rather on their worth as a hindrance to your enemies. I would expect, if HK found a new patron, it'd be for that reason.
- r00fus 7y ago
  New patron? They're legally part of China, and honestly have no secession rights, no defensive position, and no allies willing to fight the PRC. Someone earlier on HN made a comment that the HK-Macau-Zhuhai bridge newly built was expressly designed to put Chinese tanks into HK in under 30m, which would easily stomp any resistance. That projection of power is also likely to deter any possible allies, as it's an indefensible position. This article has a nice picture: https://www.vox.com/world/2018/10/22/18010254/chain-bridge-hong-kong-macau-zhuhai https://www.vox.com/world/2018/10/22/18010254/chain-bridge-h...
  - flukus 7y ago
    HK relies on China for power and water, not to mention economically. If push comes to shove China is in no hurry to get tanks in. I'd be interested to set what sort of damage they could do by turning off wechat.
    - my_username_is_ 7y ago
      Exactly this. Plus there's a PLA garrison in Hong Kong anyways. The bridge (and high speed rail to Kowloon) are about creating better links through the region, enabling further economic growth and creating a stronger sense of "one country"
    - derefr 7y ago
      Sure, HK is a city as well as it’s a state, and you can besiege a city. Doesn’t mean, under the hypothetical where someone went to war with China and HK allied with them, that that larger nation wouldn’t extract protections for HK from China as a concession, win or lose. It’d be an obvious “price of entry” for HK to participate in any such war. (Heck, I bet with the way things are going, if said ally was trying to recruit Taiwan to stand in rebellion, I bet Taiwan would also demand protections for HK as a concession, at the same time it was demanding protections for itself.) Of course, in the mean time, the population of the city would probably have to evacuate to allied territory and only re-occupy the city after the war, lest they become an easy hostage for their allies.
  - derefr 7y ago
    I mean, North Korea wasn’t originally a distinct sovereign nation either. Things change. Especially after wars.

but they were only valuable to the UK because it was their gateway to China. it has always been about the relationship to China

by bllguo 7y ago

but they were only valuable to the UK because it was their gateway to China. it has always been about the relationship to China

derefr 7y ago

North Korea is valuable to Russia and China because it keeps (US-allied) South Korea away from having a land bridge into either of those countries. In other words, entire countries can be propped up for decades not on their worth as an ally or vassal, but rather on their worth as a hindrance to your enemies. I would expect, if HK found a new patron, it'd be for that reason.

r00fus 7y ago
New patron? They're legally part of China, and honestly have no secession rights, no defensive position, and no allies willing to fight the PRC. Someone earlier on HN made a comment that the HK-Macau-Zhuhai bridge newly built was expressly designed to put Chinese tanks into HK in under 30m, which would easily stomp any resistance. That projection of power is also likely to deter any possible allies, as it's an indefensible position. This article has a nice picture: https://www.vox.com/world/2018/10/22/18010254/chain-bridge-hong-kong-macau-zhuhai https://www.vox.com/world/2018/10/22/18010254/chain-bridge-h...
- flukus 7y ago
  HK relies on China for power and water, not to mention economically. If push comes to shove China is in no hurry to get tanks in. I'd be interested to set what sort of damage they could do by turning off wechat.
  - my_username_is_ 7y ago
    Exactly this. Plus there's a PLA garrison in Hong Kong anyways. The bridge (and high speed rail to Kowloon) are about creating better links through the region, enabling further economic growth and creating a stronger sense of "one country"
  - derefr 7y ago
    Sure, HK is a city as well as it’s a state, and you can besiege a city. Doesn’t mean, under the hypothetical where someone went to war with China and HK allied with them, that that larger nation wouldn’t extract protections for HK from China as a concession, win or lose. It’d be an obvious “price of entry” for HK to participate in any such war. (Heck, I bet with the way things are going, if said ally was trying to recruit Taiwan to stand in rebellion, I bet Taiwan would also demand protections for HK as a concession, at the same time it was demanding protections for itself.) Of course, in the mean time, the population of the city would probably have to evacuate to allied territory and only re-occupy the city after the war, lest they become an easy hostage for their allies.
- derefr 7y ago
  I mean, North Korea wasn’t originally a distinct sovereign nation either. Things change. Especially after wars.