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There is no need for Xi or China's establishment to do anything here. They will simply wait it out. Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its rela

There is no need for Xi or China's establishment to do anything here. They will simply wait it out. Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. There is no end game where democracy and freedom wins and they secede from China and live happily ever after. What will most likely happen: the everyday people (shopkeepers, professionals, etc) who need to earn a living will tire of the endless disruptions currently paralyzing their streets and businesses. They will realize that the more radical elements of the demonstrations are undermining the very things that they are fighting for that make Hong Kong an attractive place for investment and international business in the first place: societal stability and the rule of law. This will most likely occur some time around mid-August, when the school season begins.

derefr 7y ago
> Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. They're dependent on their relationship with somebody. Not necessarily China. It used to be Britain. It could be someone else. (Maybe the US, similar to the relationship the US has with Japan, South Korea, and sorta-Taiwan.)
- bllguo 7y ago
  but they were only valuable to the UK because it was their gateway to China. it has always been about the relationship to China
  - derefr 7y ago
    North Korea is valuable to Russia and China because it keeps (US-allied) South Korea away from having a land bridge into either of those countries. In other words, entire countries can be propped up for decades not on their worth as an ally or vassal, but rather on their worth as a hindrance to your enemies. I would expect, if HK found a new patron, it'd be for that reason.
    - r00fus 7y ago
      New patron? They're legally part of China, and honestly have no secession rights, no defensive position, and no allies willing to fight the PRC. Someone earlier on HN made a comment that the HK-Macau-Zhuhai bridge newly built was expressly designed to put Chinese tanks into HK in under 30m, which would easily stomp any resistance. That projection of power is also likely to deter any possible allies, as it's an indefensible position. This article has a nice picture: https://www.vox.com/world/2018/10/22/18010254/chain-bridge-hong-kong-macau-zhuhai https://www.vox.com/world/2018/10/22/18010254/chain-bridge-h...
      - flukus 7y ago
        HK relies on China for power and water, not to mention economically. If push comes to shove China is in no hurry to get tanks in. I'd be interested to set what sort of damage they could do by turning off wechat.
        my_username_is_ 7y ago
        Exactly this. Plus there's a PLA garrison in Hong Kong anyways. The bridge (and high speed rail to Kowloon) are about creating better links through the region, enabling further economic growth and creating a stronger sense of "one country"
        derefr 7y ago
        Sure, HK is a city as well as it’s a state, and you can besiege a city. Doesn’t mean, under the hypothetical where someone went to war with China and HK allied with them, that that larger nation wouldn’t extract protections for HK from China as a concession, win or lose. It’d be an obvious “price of entry” for HK to participate in any such war. (Heck, I bet with the way things are going, if said ally was trying to recruit Taiwan to stand in rebellion, I bet Taiwan would also demand protections for HK as a concession, at the same time it was demanding protections for itself.) Of course, in the mean time, the population of the city would probably have to evacuate to allied territory and only re-occupy the city after the war, lest they become an easy hostage for their allies.
      - 7y ago
hker 7y ago
> There is no need for Xi or China's establishment to do anything here. They will simply wait it out. Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. There is no end game where democracy and freedom wins and they secede from China and live happily ever after. As I mentioned in other comments, the protestors know that the real pressure is from the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, which China cannot ignore. Currently, Hong Kong is extremely important for China in terms of capital flow: more than half of Chinese capital inflow and outflow go through Hong Kong [1]. If the capital flow is restricted, it severely hurts China, especially when she needs foreign capital where her credit expansion is unsustainable, not to mention the ongoing trade tariffs and the bigger ”new cold war” [2]. Many protestors understand that China needs Hong Kong much more than Hong Kong needs China (as for food, water, and electricity, Hong Kong may follow Singapore’s example in how she deals with Malaysia). The protestors know this, that’s why they are supporting the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, a bipartisan bill introduced by US Representative Jim McGovern and Senator Marco Rubio [3]. The bill demands true democracy in Hong Kong—universal suffrage for the legislative council and the chief executive—which is what the protestors want. I read somewhere that the bill is expected to pass by end of 2019. In addition to real change in how elections will be done in Hong Kong, the bill specifically targets Hong Kong officials and business people who are restricting the democracy in Hong Kong and will freeze their assets in the US. It is fair to say that many business people who are pro-Beijing do so out of financial interests, so this bill will make them think twice before taking side. When the bill is passed, China also needs to choose: between worse financial access versus democracy for Hong Kong. > What will most likely happen: the everyday people (shopkeepers, professionals, etc) who need to earn a living will tire of the endless disruptions currently paralyzing their streets and businesses. They will realize that the more radical elements of the demonstrations are undermining the very things that they are fighting for that make Hong Kong an attractive place for investment and international business in the first place: societal stability and the rule of law. This was similar to my thought last month, that the protest might end like the Umbrella protest, losing support from the public. But judging from recent events, this is unlikely to be the case. One recent survey discovered that people are understanding the need for real disruption to achieve actual change (See [4] in Chinese), and the protestors know how to aim at the government without causing too much trouble for local businesses (unless they showed express support for Beijing over Hong Kong [5]). They learned their lessons from the Umbrella protest. [1]: Quoting “Economic and Trade Information on China” of HKTDC (https://hkmb.hktdc.com/en/1X09PHBA/hktdc-research/Economic-and-Trade-Information-on-China https://hkmb.hktdc.com/en/1X09PHBA/hktdc-research/Economic-a...): Hong Kong is the largest source of overseas direct investment in the Chinese Mainland. By the end of 2018, among all the overseas-funded projects approved in the Chinese Mainland, 46.3% were tied to Hong Kong interests. Cumulative utilised capital inflow from Hong Kong amounted to US$1,098.1 billion, accounting for 54.1% of the national total. Hong Kong is also the leading destination for China’s FDI outflow. According to Chinese statistics, by 2017, the stock of FDI going to Hong Kong accumulated to US$981.3billion, or 54.2% of the total outflow of FDI. [2]: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/16/ich-bin-ein-hong-konger-protests-china-west-berlin/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/16/ich-bin-ein-hong-konger... [3]: https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-campaign-urging-american-politicians-support-bill-citys-democracy-rights/ https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-... [4]: https://m.mingpao.com/pns/觀點/article/20190718/s00012/1563387415357/李立峯-和理非看武力抗爭和運動激進化的「團結路徑」 https://m.mingpao.com/pns/觀點/article/20190718/s00012/1563387... [5]: https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/07/15/brands-are-being-forced-choose-side-hong-kong-protests https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/07/15/brands-are-being-for...

derefr 7y ago

> Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. They're dependent on their relationship with somebody. Not necessarily China. It used to be Britain. It could be someone else. (Maybe the US, similar to the relationship the US has with Japan, South Korea, and sorta-Taiwan.)

bllguo 7y ago
but they were only valuable to the UK because it was their gateway to China. it has always been about the relationship to China
- derefr 7y ago
  North Korea is valuable to Russia and China because it keeps (US-allied) South Korea away from having a land bridge into either of those countries. In other words, entire countries can be propped up for decades not on their worth as an ally or vassal, but rather on their worth as a hindrance to your enemies. I would expect, if HK found a new patron, it'd be for that reason.
  - r00fus 7y ago
    New patron? They're legally part of China, and honestly have no secession rights, no defensive position, and no allies willing to fight the PRC. Someone earlier on HN made a comment that the HK-Macau-Zhuhai bridge newly built was expressly designed to put Chinese tanks into HK in under 30m, which would easily stomp any resistance. That projection of power is also likely to deter any possible allies, as it's an indefensible position. This article has a nice picture: https://www.vox.com/world/2018/10/22/18010254/chain-bridge-hong-kong-macau-zhuhai https://www.vox.com/world/2018/10/22/18010254/chain-bridge-h...
    - flukus 7y ago
      HK relies on China for power and water, not to mention economically. If push comes to shove China is in no hurry to get tanks in. I'd be interested to set what sort of damage they could do by turning off wechat.
      - my_username_is_ 7y ago
        Exactly this. Plus there's a PLA garrison in Hong Kong anyways. The bridge (and high speed rail to Kowloon) are about creating better links through the region, enabling further economic growth and creating a stronger sense of "one country"
      - derefr 7y ago
        Sure, HK is a city as well as it’s a state, and you can besiege a city. Doesn’t mean, under the hypothetical where someone went to war with China and HK allied with them, that that larger nation wouldn’t extract protections for HK from China as a concession, win or lose. It’d be an obvious “price of entry” for HK to participate in any such war. (Heck, I bet with the way things are going, if said ally was trying to recruit Taiwan to stand in rebellion, I bet Taiwan would also demand protections for HK as a concession, at the same time it was demanding protections for itself.) Of course, in the mean time, the population of the city would probably have to evacuate to allied territory and only re-occupy the city after the war, lest they become an easy hostage for their allies.
    - 7y ago

hker 7y ago

> There is no need for Xi or China's establishment to do anything here. They will simply wait it out. Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. There is no end game where democracy and freedom wins and they secede from China and live happily ever after. As I mentioned in other comments, the protestors know that the real pressure is from the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, which China cannot ignore. Currently, Hong Kong is extremely important for China in terms of capital flow: more than half of Chinese capital inflow and outflow go through Hong Kong [1]. If the capital flow is restricted, it severely hurts China, especially when she needs foreign capital where her credit expansion is unsustainable, not to mention the ongoing trade tariffs and the bigger ”new cold war” [2]. Many protestors understand that China needs Hong Kong much more than Hong Kong needs China (as for food, water, and electricity, Hong Kong may follow Singapore’s example in how she deals with Malaysia). The protestors know this, that’s why they are supporting the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, a bipartisan bill introduced by US Representative Jim McGovern and Senator Marco Rubio [3]. The bill demands true democracy in Hong Kong—universal suffrage for the legislative council and the chief executive—which is what the protestors want. I read somewhere that the bill is expected to pass by end of 2019. In addition to real change in how elections will be done in Hong Kong, the bill specifically targets Hong Kong officials and business people who are restricting the democracy in Hong Kong and will freeze their assets in the US. It is fair to say that many business people who are pro-Beijing do so out of financial interests, so this bill will make them think twice before taking side. When the bill is passed, China also needs to choose: between worse financial access versus democracy for Hong Kong. > What will most likely happen: the everyday people (shopkeepers, professionals, etc) who need to earn a living will tire of the endless disruptions currently paralyzing their streets and businesses. They will realize that the more radical elements of the demonstrations are undermining the very things that they are fighting for that make Hong Kong an attractive place for investment and international business in the first place: societal stability and the rule of law. This was similar to my thought last month, that the protest might end like the Umbrella protest, losing support from the public. But judging from recent events, this is unlikely to be the case. One recent survey discovered that people are understanding the need for real disruption to achieve actual change (See [4] in Chinese), and the protestors know how to aim at the government without causing too much trouble for local businesses (unless they showed express support for Beijing over Hong Kong [5]). They learned their lessons from the Umbrella protest. [1]: Quoting “Economic and Trade Information on China” of HKTDC (https://hkmb.hktdc.com/en/1X09PHBA/hktdc-research/Economic-and-Trade-Information-on-China https://hkmb.hktdc.com/en/1X09PHBA/hktdc-research/Economic-a...): Hong Kong is the largest source of overseas direct investment in the Chinese Mainland. By the end of 2018, among all the overseas-funded projects approved in the Chinese Mainland, 46.3% were tied to Hong Kong interests. Cumulative utilised capital inflow from Hong Kong amounted to US$1,098.1 billion, accounting for 54.1% of the national total. Hong Kong is also the leading destination for China’s FDI outflow. According to Chinese statistics, by 2017, the stock of FDI going to Hong Kong accumulated to US$981.3billion, or 54.2% of the total outflow of FDI. [2]: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/16/ich-bin-ein-hong-konger-protests-china-west-berlin/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/16/ich-bin-ein-hong-konger... [3]: https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-campaign-urging-american-politicians-support-bill-citys-democracy-rights/ https://www.hongkongfp.com/2019/07/12/hongkongers-us-launch-... [4]: https://m.mingpao.com/pns/觀點/article/20190718/s00012/1563387415357/李立峯-和理非看武力抗爭和運動激進化的「團結路徑」 https://m.mingpao.com/pns/觀點/article/20190718/s00012/1563387... [5]: https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/07/15/brands-are-being-forced-choose-side-hong-kong-protests https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/07/15/brands-are-being-for...