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China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. What was the last time the US grew at even close to that rate?
by coliveira 7y ago
China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. What was the last time the US grew at even close to that rate?
- Rch_East 7y agoDo you trust the statistics coming out of the Chinese Communist Party?
- fiblye 7y agoI’ve been seeing the same article here rehashed since I was in elementary school over 20 years ago. I trust CCP statistics as much as I trust western reports about China. Which is to say, not at all. China probably isn’t as rich or powerful as it projects, but it’s also clearly not as weak and fragile as American media has been hoping all these decades.
- dia80 7y agoThat's unwise, you can call the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) up and ask them how they arrived at their numbers. In the UK you can go on field trips with the Office of National Statistics (ONS) to watch them measure inflation. It's materially different.
- vajaya 7y agoData messaging is a legitimate and well established study and practice
- nordsieck 7y ago> China's GDP is growing at 6.3%. It's not clear to me the extent one can trust the official numbers from China.
- RidingPegasus 7y agoWould you like to provide some evidence to the contrary for that or just a general "It's probably not true"? You could say the same about Western government debt that's creatively accounted, unemployment rates which avoid underemployment/participation and inflation which desperately needs to remain low to keep bond rates from bankrupting public balance sheets.
- metildaa 7y agoChina has been cooking the books on their GDP for years: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-admits-its-statistics-are-wrong/ https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-admits-its-statistics-...
- RidingPegasus 7y agoI'm talking about this figure. Asking for evidence to the contrary that it's not 6.3%. If so what do you think it is? 3%? 2%? Perhaps 6.1%? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/china-s-latest-official-gdp-report-is-accurate-no-really https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/china-s-l...
- Fjolsvith 7y agoNewer research says it could be half the 6.3%. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/bpea_2019_conference-1.pdf?mod=article_inline https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/bpea_20... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/c...
- RidingPegasus 7y agoThanks, which page or figure on the Brookings pdf should I be looking at?
- Fjolsvith 7y ago
- stunt 7y agoChina is still doing well. You don’t need official numbers! Just look at Chinese tourists if you live near a tourist destination. They travel more than any time and they spend a lot. While this is not anything like a real economic metric, it is a reflection of what is happening there.
- vajaya 7y agoyou are right. probably China has always been under reporting their growth rate as the hide your strength strategy. It's inexplicable that China's GDP from construction is smaller than that of U.S., given that China is undergoing an infrastructure build up at a scale that human race has never seen.
- repolfx 7y agoBear in mind GDP can be manipulated yet true at the same time. If the government tweaks regulations, lending criteria and does other things to trigger huge spending on building pointless ghost cities, that will legitimately increase GDP because GDP is just summing up "stuff being done". There's a very subtle but deeply embedded assumption in western talk about GDP: that high GDP indicates a lot of useful things are being made and sold. But in a hard-left economy like China that correlation is weak; it's possible for lots of people to be doing things that aren't useful.
- lulouie 7y ago1984, 7.23% :) Plus, you really trust the number which come from CCP?
- RidingPegasus 7y agoSo nearly 40 years ago, many here weren't even born. Do you trust Bloomberg? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/china-s-latest-official-gdp-report-is-accurate-no-really https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-25/china-s-l...
- lulouie 7y agoTake a look around "中國 GDP 灌水", lead to this latest research claim that China's GDP has been misrepresent after 2008. CITE: Relative to the official numbers, we estimate that GDP growth from 2008-2016 is 1.7 percentage points lower and the investment and savings rate in 2016 is 7 percentage points lower. Ref: https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/a-forensic-examination-of-chinas-national-accounts/ https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/a-forensic-examinati...
- RidingPegasus 7y agoI'm well aware of the history, thanks for the link. We are in a comment section of an article on this latest print and I was responding to a comment which says it doesn't trust the official figures. Provided evidence to the contrary. Do you think this GDP number is wrong and if so by how much?
- remote_phone 7y agoI think given China’s population growth, if the GDP doesn’t grow 6%, its considered a recession for them.
- RidingPegasus 7y ago> given China's population growth Their population growth is lower than most of the West, some argue it even contracted last year. Why is everyone on this site so wildly misinformed about the largest country on Earth? Is this a US thing? https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/china-population-crisis.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/ch...
- plussed_reader 7y agoThe detriments of the one child policy are well documented. Positive growth and negative growth both inform on the overall birth rate. Also, largest country on Earth? I do believe China is #4 after Russia, Canada, and the US in terms of SquareKM.
- east2west 7y agoWiki says China is the third largest, after Russia, Canada. US is the fourth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_area https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen...
- RidingPegasus 7y agoOne-child policy is long gone though. A two-child policy exists perhaps for some. The article does an excellent job summing up the demographic hurdles they face. I personally think any country that can economically prosper without resorting to unsustainable population growth or environmental damage should be congratulated on the world stage. China is managing to do one of those things. Technological advancement should be the focus of developed nations wanting to thrive without taking the easy gdp heroin hit of over-populating, which is essentially unaccounted future debt heaped upon younger generations.
- cltsang 7y agoEven the second most powerful man in China does not trust official GDP figures. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang_index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang_index