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> I have no idea what to believe here. I often hear this kind of thing. This is a false dilemma. You hear one story from one side and another story from anot
by mikekchar 7y ago
> I have no idea what to believe here.
I often hear this kind of thing. This is a false dilemma. You hear one story from one side and another story from another side. Both sound reasonable, but it's so complicated that you can't evaluate it. Which do you believe?
The answer is that you can choose to believe neither. True, you have to make a choice between the two, but I think it's actually critically important not to believe. If you are the decision maker, and you do not understand the issue well enough to make a decision, then you need to do a risk analysis and make your choices based on that risk analysis.
After you have done that, you then you need to make predictions. Over time, it should become more clear which side (or perhaps another result that never had a "side") is becoming the more likely good choice. You need to track that issue and keep comparing it to your predictions. If it looks like you made the wrong choice, then you should go to your recovery plan (which you did make, right?)
That's how to sanely deal with these situations. The idea that you believe one side or the other, throw your weight to that side full force and then close your eyes and hope you were right is... Hmm... how can I characterise it? ;-) Not reasonable.