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This is why Thiel's backing Trump was such a smart move, purely in a realpolitik sense. If Trump had lost, Thiel would have taken a minor reputational hit base

by defen 7y ago

This is why Thiel's backing Trump was such a smart move, purely in a realpolitik sense. If Trump had lost, Thiel would have taken a minor reputational hit based on Trump's pre-election behavior, but since no one thought he would win anyway, it could have been written off as him just taking a chance on an outside candidate. None of the really controversial stuff would have happened, so worst case scenario Thiel looks kind of foolish and wasted a bit of money. If he had backed Clinton and she won, he would just be one of many Silicon Valley backers, with no particular voice over and above the other billionaires. But now, Thiel is the only person in Silicon Valley who the President will listen to. That's got to be worth way more than the 1.5 million or whatever that he spent on it.

papln 7y ago
Thiel bragged about making contrarian bets like this. It's the political version of Moneyball.
devoply 7y ago
Okay, Trump is probably on his way out. And I wonder what all the other people in Silicon Valley think of Thiel, I guess when you have that much money it does not matter. Plus this is mostly grandstanding.
- anonymousJim12 7y ago
  On his way out? I despise Trump and everything he stands for. Polls show his numbers only improving with every new controversy he starts. And he still has a lot of levers to pull leading up to the election that will hurt his opponents and expand his base.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    Yeah, I wish he was on the way out. I don't agree that his poll numbers improve with every controversy, but they don't crater the way they should. But maybe that's understandable, too. "The squad" has become the face of the Democratic Party, and the squad and Trump are neck-and-neck in a race to appeal to two-year-olds. Seems like both sides forgot that two-year-olds can't vote. If the Democrats had the appearance of competence and sanity, they should easily beat Trump, but at the moment, they look equally insane. If the primary process produces someone who is not extremely left, someone who can look "presidential" rather than getting into a name-calling war with Trump, and someone that actually sounds like they care about the blue-collar voters, Trump should be gone. Take Pelosi, for instance. It can't be Pelosi, nor someone like her. Pelosi seems to stand for Pelosi being the speaker. She doesn't seem to stand for any particular policies, other than "not Trump, but not something that's going to cost me the speaker job (even if by killing the Dems in the 2020 elections)". That doesn't win many votes in the Rust Belt.
    - 18pfsmt 7y ago
      I believe Pelosi will relinquish her speakership in 2020 no matter the outcome of the election. Those are the conditions under which she was voted as Speaker in the first place. [Even though I do not necessarily agree with you exactly, I tried to restore your comments visibility because of your long standing, seemingly in earnest, HN contributions.]
      - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
        Thanks. A charitable reading is appreciated. I had forgotten about her promise to relinquish.
oposa 7y ago
Thiel gets way too much credit for being pragmatic (or whatever you want to call it). As far as I have read he has held those views for a long time, whether you like them or not. It wouldn't surprise me if it goes back to his parents or something. It seem mostly just that people don't want to believe that the US has opinionated "media moguls" like Europe.
- ordinaryradical 7y ago
  Agreed. Thiel wasn't playing realpolitik at all. He is adamantly anti-democratic in his political views and appreciated Trump precisely because he lined up neatly with his corporatist-authoritarian views. Thiel has unusual politics that don't fit neatly along the right-left spectrum and lucked into a candidate that matched them more closely than anyone who had come before.
  - Finnucane 7y ago
    >corporatist-authoritarian views Well, we have a word for that. An Italian word.
    - Gibbon1 7y ago
      It's 'interesting' that posts using that word get deleted.
      - dang 7y ago
        Users flagged the comment, no doubt because it was unsubstantive and written in the flamewar style. Even when a topic is as politicized and divisive as the current one, users are expected not to post like that. Would you (both) mind reviewing the site guideline and sticking to them when posting here? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - moate 7y ago
    >>don't fit neatly along the right-left spectrum That's because it's more of a grid. You have 2 axis: Authoritarian/Libertarian, Economic Left/Economic Right. If you're looking at it as a line, all sorts of things "don't fit neatly".
jmull 7y ago
I don't know. Thiel will probably be around a lot longer than Trump. Maybe he doesn't need the respect of anyone in SV, but it might end up limiting opportunities. Also, it seems like the chaotic nature of the Trump administration limits its value as an active ally. That is, what is it worth for Trump to be listening to you if nothing turns into a policy or legislation?
maze-le 7y ago
Political machinations like this are one of the reasons most of the population in western democracies do not feel represented in any way whatsoever. The systems designed to balance power between civil servants, the economy, the military and the populace are increasingly bound by the whims an wishes of a selected few. One can argue that this was always the way of the world -- and it's only coming to light now, but I think that this is a far too cynical view IMO. It neglects the steady decline in political participation, party/union membership and actions a single individual can take. Keep in mind, that this is not only a problem in the United States -- maybe its just more visible there. My home country Germany has more than enough shady connections between economic execs and the political machine.
nostrademons 7y ago
Peter Thiel's not in Silicon Valley anymore. He moved to LA, ostensibly because every dollar he invests in SF startups goes to landlords, but more likely because a large number of entrepreneurs and SV power players refused to work with him because of his Trump support. Whether this ends up being a shrewd move or a strategic blunder remains to be seen. I also thought that it was pretty smart in a realpolitik sense when he did it, but now I'm wondering if he's won the battle but lost the war. There's a lot of tacit power in the heads of various SV engineers, entrepreneurs, and executives, most of which is currently devoted toward making people click on ads, but which could be a force to be reckoned with if their ability to stay in SV and continue getting people to click on ads were ever directly threatened.
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  Synecdoche: http://www.dict.org/bin/Dict?Form=Dict2&Database=*&Query=synecdoche http://www.dict.org/bin/Dict?Form=Dict2&Database=*&Query=syn...

by defen 7y ago

papln 7y ago

Thiel bragged about making contrarian bets like this. It's the political version of Moneyball.

devoply 7y ago

Okay, Trump is probably on his way out. And I wonder what all the other people in Silicon Valley think of Thiel, I guess when you have that much money it does not matter. Plus this is mostly grandstanding.

anonymousJim12 7y ago
On his way out? I despise Trump and everything he stands for. Polls show his numbers only improving with every new controversy he starts. And he still has a lot of levers to pull leading up to the election that will hurt his opponents and expand his base.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  Yeah, I wish he was on the way out. I don't agree that his poll numbers improve with every controversy, but they don't crater the way they should. But maybe that's understandable, too. "The squad" has become the face of the Democratic Party, and the squad and Trump are neck-and-neck in a race to appeal to two-year-olds. Seems like both sides forgot that two-year-olds can't vote. If the Democrats had the appearance of competence and sanity, they should easily beat Trump, but at the moment, they look equally insane. If the primary process produces someone who is not extremely left, someone who can look "presidential" rather than getting into a name-calling war with Trump, and someone that actually sounds like they care about the blue-collar voters, Trump should be gone. Take Pelosi, for instance. It can't be Pelosi, nor someone like her. Pelosi seems to stand for Pelosi being the speaker. She doesn't seem to stand for any particular policies, other than "not Trump, but not something that's going to cost me the speaker job (even if by killing the Dems in the 2020 elections)". That doesn't win many votes in the Rust Belt.
  - 18pfsmt 7y ago
    I believe Pelosi will relinquish her speakership in 2020 no matter the outcome of the election. Those are the conditions under which she was voted as Speaker in the first place. [Even though I do not necessarily agree with you exactly, I tried to restore your comments visibility because of your long standing, seemingly in earnest, HN contributions.]
    - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
      Thanks. A charitable reading is appreciated. I had forgotten about her promise to relinquish.

oposa 7y ago

Thiel gets way too much credit for being pragmatic (or whatever you want to call it). As far as I have read he has held those views for a long time, whether you like them or not. It wouldn't surprise me if it goes back to his parents or something. It seem mostly just that people don't want to believe that the US has opinionated "media moguls" like Europe.

ordinaryradical 7y ago
Agreed. Thiel wasn't playing realpolitik at all. He is adamantly anti-democratic in his political views and appreciated Trump precisely because he lined up neatly with his corporatist-authoritarian views. Thiel has unusual politics that don't fit neatly along the right-left spectrum and lucked into a candidate that matched them more closely than anyone who had come before.
- Finnucane 7y ago
  >corporatist-authoritarian views Well, we have a word for that. An Italian word.
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    It's 'interesting' that posts using that word get deleted.
    - dang 7y ago
      Users flagged the comment, no doubt because it was unsubstantive and written in the flamewar style. Even when a topic is as politicized and divisive as the current one, users are expected not to post like that. Would you (both) mind reviewing the site guideline and sticking to them when posting here? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- moate 7y ago
  >>don't fit neatly along the right-left spectrum That's because it's more of a grid. You have 2 axis: Authoritarian/Libertarian, Economic Left/Economic Right. If you're looking at it as a line, all sorts of things "don't fit neatly".

jmull 7y ago

I don't know. Thiel will probably be around a lot longer than Trump. Maybe he doesn't need the respect of anyone in SV, but it might end up limiting opportunities. Also, it seems like the chaotic nature of the Trump administration limits its value as an active ally. That is, what is it worth for Trump to be listening to you if nothing turns into a policy or legislation?

maze-le 7y ago

Political machinations like this are one of the reasons most of the population in western democracies do not feel represented in any way whatsoever. The systems designed to balance power between civil servants, the economy, the military and the populace are increasingly bound by the whims an wishes of a selected few. One can argue that this was always the way of the world -- and it's only coming to light now, but I think that this is a far too cynical view IMO. It neglects the steady decline in political participation, party/union membership and actions a single individual can take. Keep in mind, that this is not only a problem in the United States -- maybe its just more visible there. My home country Germany has more than enough shady connections between economic execs and the political machine.

nostrademons 7y ago

Peter Thiel's not in Silicon Valley anymore. He moved to LA, ostensibly because every dollar he invests in SF startups goes to landlords, but more likely because a large number of entrepreneurs and SV power players refused to work with him because of his Trump support. Whether this ends up being a shrewd move or a strategic blunder remains to be seen. I also thought that it was pretty smart in a realpolitik sense when he did it, but now I'm wondering if he's won the battle but lost the war. There's a lot of tacit power in the heads of various SV engineers, entrepreneurs, and executives, most of which is currently devoted toward making people click on ads, but which could be a force to be reckoned with if their ability to stay in SV and continue getting people to click on ads were ever directly threatened.

dredmorbius 7y ago
Synecdoche: http://www.dict.org/bin/Dict?Form=Dict2&Database=*&Query=synecdoche http://www.dict.org/bin/Dict?Form=Dict2&Database=*&Query=syn...