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Of course the world would be entirely different today, but whether that results in "large future dividends" is entirely unpredictable, and the whole point of th
by anyfoo 7y ago
Of course the world would be entirely different today, but whether that results in "large future dividends" is entirely unpredictable, and the whole point of the butterfly effect.
Maybe some very talented people would have picked up a career based on transistors before they were locked into something else and humanity would have harnessed fusion power by now.
Maybe some aggressive people would have harnessed transistors for weapons earlier and humanity would be eradicated by now.
Maybe due to a strange coincidence involving a transistor salesman on a trip to Brazil and some records on his way back, we'd all be dancing Bossa Nova at New Year's Eve, in honor of a decades old tradition.
"What if", is, in reality, pointless, as everything depends on everything (at least within our Light Cone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone )
- melling 7y agoi never said it would be predictable. Also, I’m not trying to play what-if with the past, I’m trying to get you to think about a different future where we make an additional investmen/effort to learn more sooner.
- anyfoo 7y agoThat's noble, but a bit far away from the article, so I did not realize what you meant. (Plus, I'd consider it likely that most people spending any time on such rather academic concepts as the Butterfly Effect are well aware of the payoff that science and education can bring, directly or indirectly.)
- melling 7y ago“the concept that small events can have large, widespread consequences” If the US spent 1% more on research every year, that would have a large widespread consequence. If the top 10 ten countries did... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_and_development_spending https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_researc...