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“They expose the growing chasm between what the public expects from scientific research - that is, a series of ever more precise answers about the world we live

“They expose the growing chasm between what the public expects from scientific research - that is, a series of ever more precise answers about the world we live in - and the realms of uncertainty into which modern science is taking us.” Perhaps it’s not a butterfly effect, but I like to think of the “butterfly effect” of extra money invested in research, for example, paying off in large future dividends. For instance, if the transistor had been discovered 10 years earlier, would the world be significantly different today? Imagine hundreds of other smaller discoveries had happened sooner...

anyfoo 7y ago
Of course the world would be entirely different today, but whether that results in "large future dividends" is entirely unpredictable, and the whole point of the butterfly effect. Maybe some very talented people would have picked up a career based on transistors before they were locked into something else and humanity would have harnessed fusion power by now. Maybe some aggressive people would have harnessed transistors for weapons earlier and humanity would be eradicated by now. Maybe due to a strange coincidence involving a transistor salesman on a trip to Brazil and some records on his way back, we'd all be dancing Bossa Nova at New Year's Eve, in honor of a decades old tradition. "What if", is, in reality, pointless, as everything depends on everything (at least within our Light Cone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone )
- melling 7y ago
  i never said it would be predictable. Also, I’m not trying to play what-if with the past, I’m trying to get you to think about a different future where we make an additional investmen/effort to learn more sooner.
  - anyfoo 7y ago
    That's noble, but a bit far away from the article, so I did not realize what you meant. (Plus, I'd consider it likely that most people spending any time on such rather academic concepts as the Butterfly Effect are well aware of the payoff that science and education can bring, directly or indirectly.)
    - melling 7y ago
      “the concept that small events can have large, widespread consequences” If the US spent 1% more on research every year, that would have a large widespread consequence. If the top 10 ten countries did... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_and_development_spending https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_researc...
beautifulfreak 7y ago
Bell Labs, where the transistor was discovered, did exactly what you suggest, so maybe the transistor did actually appear 10 years early. It's famous for letting its scientists concentrate on research without concern for commercial uses.

anyfoo 7y ago

Of course the world would be entirely different today, but whether that results in "large future dividends" is entirely unpredictable, and the whole point of the butterfly effect. Maybe some very talented people would have picked up a career based on transistors before they were locked into something else and humanity would have harnessed fusion power by now. Maybe some aggressive people would have harnessed transistors for weapons earlier and humanity would be eradicated by now. Maybe due to a strange coincidence involving a transistor salesman on a trip to Brazil and some records on his way back, we'd all be dancing Bossa Nova at New Year's Eve, in honor of a decades old tradition. "What if", is, in reality, pointless, as everything depends on everything (at least within our Light Cone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone )

melling 7y ago
i never said it would be predictable. Also, I’m not trying to play what-if with the past, I’m trying to get you to think about a different future where we make an additional investmen/effort to learn more sooner.
- anyfoo 7y ago
  That's noble, but a bit far away from the article, so I did not realize what you meant. (Plus, I'd consider it likely that most people spending any time on such rather academic concepts as the Butterfly Effect are well aware of the payoff that science and education can bring, directly or indirectly.)
  - melling 7y ago
    “the concept that small events can have large, widespread consequences” If the US spent 1% more on research every year, that would have a large widespread consequence. If the top 10 ten countries did... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_research_and_development_spending https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_researc...

beautifulfreak 7y ago

Bell Labs, where the transistor was discovered, did exactly what you suggest, so maybe the transistor did actually appear 10 years early. It's famous for letting its scientists concentrate on research without concern for commercial uses.