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Very weird time we are in right now. US Markets at all time high, stronk us economy, faltering global outlook, plus tariffs. Market may go to the moon, or it m

by o-__-o 7y ago

Very weird time we are in right now. US Markets at all time high, stronk us economy, faltering global outlook, plus tariffs. Market may go to the moon, or it may collapse. That ratio needs to be tweaked at least monthly maybe bimonthly through the rest of this year (lots of uncertainty coming up)

dehrmann 7y ago
Caveat: if you're a long-term investor, pay no attention to this or my comment. I completely agree that we're in a weird time. A few weeks ago, there was a bad economic report and the market rallied because it assumed that made it more likely the Fed would cut rates. I get it, but it's also absurd, and by reductio ad absurdum, the Fed alone can't power the economy. There have been rumblings that volatility is probably underpriced (options almost always imply less downside risk than there really is, anyway), especially in the political climate with Iran and Brexit and the economic climate of a US trade war with China and--now--France. On the other hand, money is cheap, you gotta put it somewhere, and Vision Fund II looks like a sucker's bet.
darkteflon 7y ago
The times are always weird. You’ll be perpetually waiting if you’re waiting for stuff to get “normal”. Absorbing the essential truth of this is part of the zen of indexing. Nobody knows what outcome you’ll get, but indexing is a solid process. That’s all you can do - maximise the quality of your process. Anything else is noise.
- o-__-o 7y ago
  We’re at all time highs, is the market going up or down? You have an increased risk here because the wrong decision can be decimating (short the market and it continues to rally, or buy the market and we’ve hit the top). Nope I would wait for a confirmation signal and act on that. Even long term investing, you should have an edge never invest and withdraw blindly.
  - darkteflon 7y ago
    Unless you are a PhD in finance working at one of a handful of the world’s top money managers, I guarantee that what you confidently refer to as your “edge” is gonna end up poking you in the eye. Age and experience will teach you that if you let it.
    - o-__-o 7y ago
      Or maybe age and experience has seen this before and went balls deep in ITM calls after the market washed out 100+ points. I mean if you reread what I said, it’s spot on to what happened over the last few days But keep thinking a paper giving you a title with some mixed case letters makes you a top money manager and that no one could have possibly avoided a 40% loss during 2008 Also an edge can simply be moving averages which has a proven backtest but there are a lot more analytical tools that exist today

by o-__-o 7y ago

dehrmann 7y ago

Caveat: if you're a long-term investor, pay no attention to this or my comment. I completely agree that we're in a weird time. A few weeks ago, there was a bad economic report and the market rallied because it assumed that made it more likely the Fed would cut rates. I get it, but it's also absurd, and by reductio ad absurdum, the Fed alone can't power the economy. There have been rumblings that volatility is probably underpriced (options almost always imply less downside risk than there really is, anyway), especially in the political climate with Iran and Brexit and the economic climate of a US trade war with China and--now--France. On the other hand, money is cheap, you gotta put it somewhere, and Vision Fund II looks like a sucker's bet.

darkteflon 7y ago

The times are always weird. You’ll be perpetually waiting if you’re waiting for stuff to get “normal”. Absorbing the essential truth of this is part of the zen of indexing. Nobody knows what outcome you’ll get, but indexing is a solid process. That’s all you can do - maximise the quality of your process. Anything else is noise.

o-__-o 7y ago
We’re at all time highs, is the market going up or down? You have an increased risk here because the wrong decision can be decimating (short the market and it continues to rally, or buy the market and we’ve hit the top). Nope I would wait for a confirmation signal and act on that. Even long term investing, you should have an edge never invest and withdraw blindly.
- darkteflon 7y ago
  Unless you are a PhD in finance working at one of a handful of the world’s top money managers, I guarantee that what you confidently refer to as your “edge” is gonna end up poking you in the eye. Age and experience will teach you that if you let it.
  - o-__-o 7y ago
    Or maybe age and experience has seen this before and went balls deep in ITM calls after the market washed out 100+ points. I mean if you reread what I said, it’s spot on to what happened over the last few days But keep thinking a paper giving you a title with some mixed case letters makes you a top money manager and that no one could have possibly avoided a 40% loss during 2008 Also an edge can simply be moving averages which has a proven backtest but there are a lot more analytical tools that exist today