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So it looks like best guess is some sort of mutated polio virus? Also seems to cluster from June to December range... I hope they figure out what exactly this i

So it looks like best guess is some sort of mutated polio virus? Also seems to cluster from June to December range... I hope they figure out what exactly this is soon.

halfarmbandit 7y ago
Notice, this isn’t just June to Late November, it’s also occurring every 2 years, not every year. This has me wearing tinfoil hats.
- tzs 7y ago
  I'd reach for the insect repellant before the tinfoil hat. Anyone know offhand an insect with a two year life cycle that has some significant stage that peaks around September?
  - nemonemo 7y ago
    Even if such insect exists, they would have alternating two groups that would appear like annual, like cicadas.
    - dmckeon 7y ago
      Or appear every 13 or 17 years, like some cicadas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodical_cicadas#Lifecycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodical_cicadas#Lifecycle
      - nemonemo 7y ago
        This is a great natural wonder. Thank you. It also invalidates my logic. Maybe there could be some vector with biannual periodicity.
      - Marionnorris 7y ago
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- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  While the researchers have probably looked into possible insect vectors, it's really not that big of a clue. Also I don't believe the suspect species are even known to be insect-borne. Such patterns are unusual but potential explanations are plentiful. A warm climate is not only good for insects, but also for a virus trying to survive whatever way of transmission is necessary. Maybe there are two virus species that need to interact, or one virus and one other cyclical factor, and their cycles only coincide every other year.
0815test 7y ago
I thought polio itself was on the brink of complete eradication, with humans as the only viable reservoir? Seems quite unlikely that it would be mutating this recently, so this has to be something pre-existing.
- bayesian_horse 7y ago
  Such a virus mutates all the time, but no, it's not possible this is "a mutated poliovirus". Like you say, it was mostly eradicated, and diagnostic tests and vaccines are designed to catch any reasonable lineage.
bayesian_horse 7y ago
No, not a "mutated poliovirus". Poliovirus is extinct in most of the world, so infections in the US are very rare and easily detectable. No chance to hide and mutate. The suspect strains could be called very distant relatives.

So it looks like best guess is some sort of mutated polio virus? Also seems to cluster from June to December range... I hope they figure out what exactly this is soon.

halfarmbandit 7y ago

Notice, this isn’t just June to Late November, it’s also occurring every 2 years, not every year. This has me wearing tinfoil hats.

tzs 7y ago
I'd reach for the insect repellant before the tinfoil hat. Anyone know offhand an insect with a two year life cycle that has some significant stage that peaks around September?
- nemonemo 7y ago
  Even if such insect exists, they would have alternating two groups that would appear like annual, like cicadas.
  - dmckeon 7y ago
    Or appear every 13 or 17 years, like some cicadas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodical_cicadas#Lifecycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodical_cicadas#Lifecycle
    - nemonemo 7y ago
      This is a great natural wonder. Thank you. It also invalidates my logic. Maybe there could be some vector with biannual periodicity.
    - Marionnorris 7y ago
      Greetings my name is Marion Norris. I’m from Atlanta few weeks back I was in a tribble situation that I urgently needed to fix my credit. I contacted various credit Agency I met online to help me fix my credit but could not pull through. I disclosed my situation to a co-worker Marcus he recommended a Credit Specialist by name HACKNET CREDIT SPECIALIST he used some time that delivered a job for him HACKNET567@GMAIL.COM/ (949) 397 8437 I contacted him and explained the situation on ground hitting how desperately I needed a house but my credit rate wouldn’t allow me, after much discussion and findings I was okay to move on with the process I presented the necessary info he requested to kick start. He got my credit fixed in 12days It’s really amazing working with HACKNET with great professionalism I also made him my personal hacker you can hit him up on the address above tell him I sent you. Thanks.
bayesian_horse 7y ago
While the researchers have probably looked into possible insect vectors, it's really not that big of a clue. Also I don't believe the suspect species are even known to be insect-borne. Such patterns are unusual but potential explanations are plentiful. A warm climate is not only good for insects, but also for a virus trying to survive whatever way of transmission is necessary. Maybe there are two virus species that need to interact, or one virus and one other cyclical factor, and their cycles only coincide every other year.

0815test 7y ago

I thought polio itself was on the brink of complete eradication, with humans as the only viable reservoir? Seems quite unlikely that it would be mutating this recently, so this has to be something pre-existing.

bayesian_horse 7y ago
Such a virus mutates all the time, but no, it's not possible this is "a mutated poliovirus". Like you say, it was mostly eradicated, and diagnostic tests and vaccines are designed to catch any reasonable lineage.

bayesian_horse 7y ago

No, not a "mutated poliovirus". Poliovirus is extinct in most of the world, so infections in the US are very rare and easily detectable. No chance to hide and mutate. The suspect strains could be called very distant relatives.