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You _can_, certainly. But I still have the suspicion that a good chunk of the political Left will be dissatisfied that the carbon emissions will plummet withou

You _can_, certainly. But I still have the suspicion that a good chunk of the political Left will be dissatisfied that the carbon emissions will plummet without any changes in political beliefs or policies being involved. As for Saudi Arabia: there's a lot more people living there, than did before there was oil. Yes, we will still use _some_ oil for many years, but if the oil revenue drops to, say, 50% of current levels, I think that there will be problems sooner rather than later.

ajross 7y ago
> But I still have the suspicion that a good chunk of the political Left will be dissatisfied Only in the somewhat specious sense that a good chunk of the political X is continually dissatisfied, for all values of X. I'm on that mythical "Left" you're talking about. No one would be happier to see carbon emissions plumet than I, and for any reason. That doesn't mean that I don't think some kind of regulation is inappropriate or unnecessary, in particular because I don't see the revolution in the linked article as inevitable as we might hope.
- rossdavidh 7y ago
  Well you make a good point, it may just be the noisiest part of the left that will be dissatisfied, not necessarily the biggest part.
opportune 7y ago
I am part of the political left. Not sure what kind of argument you are making, carbon emissions plummeting is good no matter what. If we can do it for cheap, even better. In fact, mitigating climate change due to technological innovation and the free market is preferable than achieving it due to regulation and massive public spending programs. Why? Because unless you are able to enforce regulations on every country on Earth, what would happen is that energy-intensive industries would just shift to countries with lax regulations. It is not stable, in a game-theoretic sense, for every sovereign entity to have strict renewable energy standards, as any entity violating those standards has an immense competitive advantage over other entities. The only thing I am dissatisfied about is the pace, because we are not transitioning fast enough to avoid some of the long-term effects of global climate change. > if the oil revenue drops to, say, 50% of current levels, I think that there will be problems sooner rather than later. They have a sovereign wealth fund to protect against this. Look to Qatar and the UAE to see where they want to go in the future.
- rossdavidh 7y ago
  Qatar has done a considerably better job of diversifying their economy, perhaps because (since they are smaller), the central leader is able to shift the national direction better. Glad to know that at least some on the left will be happy with a technological solution. Don't be surprised if your political "neighbors" turn negative on solar and wind as it becomes commercially big.
Faark 7y ago
> carbon emissions will plummet without any changes in [..] policies being involved. Wow, you really go as far as saying government was not involved? The only reason prices for renewables have gone down to where they are now is due to government policies that promote that tech. Details available on wiki [0]. This only happens if parties do care about environment & co. Here in germany it was actually done by a centre-right party by local standards, though obviously that would translate to "Left" when compared to the current US political landscape. Just like pretty much all parties here. Btw, we have more than two... this makes it quite a bit harder to group all you dislike as "the other". [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics
- rossdavidh 7y ago
  Well there is no part of any industry without _some_ kind of government involvement, but solar has been dropping in price for 50 years, and that spans many different kinds of administrations, some of which were decidedly more or less favorable. Much of it is simply the fact that technology tends towards exponential decline in price as volume goes up, which feeds on itself. Commodities tends to go up as volume goes up, which makes more of an oscillatory effect. Btw I don't dislike the Left, it's most of my friends.

ajross 7y ago

> But I still have the suspicion that a good chunk of the political Left will be dissatisfied Only in the somewhat specious sense that a good chunk of the political X is continually dissatisfied, for all values of X. I'm on that mythical "Left" you're talking about. No one would be happier to see carbon emissions plumet than I, and for any reason. That doesn't mean that I don't think some kind of regulation is inappropriate or unnecessary, in particular because I don't see the revolution in the linked article as inevitable as we might hope.

rossdavidh 7y ago
Well you make a good point, it may just be the noisiest part of the left that will be dissatisfied, not necessarily the biggest part.

opportune 7y ago

I am part of the political left. Not sure what kind of argument you are making, carbon emissions plummeting is good no matter what. If we can do it for cheap, even better. In fact, mitigating climate change due to technological innovation and the free market is preferable than achieving it due to regulation and massive public spending programs. Why? Because unless you are able to enforce regulations on every country on Earth, what would happen is that energy-intensive industries would just shift to countries with lax regulations. It is not stable, in a game-theoretic sense, for every sovereign entity to have strict renewable energy standards, as any entity violating those standards has an immense competitive advantage over other entities. The only thing I am dissatisfied about is the pace, because we are not transitioning fast enough to avoid some of the long-term effects of global climate change. > if the oil revenue drops to, say, 50% of current levels, I think that there will be problems sooner rather than later. They have a sovereign wealth fund to protect against this. Look to Qatar and the UAE to see where they want to go in the future.

rossdavidh 7y ago
Qatar has done a considerably better job of diversifying their economy, perhaps because (since they are smaller), the central leader is able to shift the national direction better. Glad to know that at least some on the left will be happy with a technological solution. Don't be surprised if your political "neighbors" turn negative on solar and wind as it becomes commercially big.

Faark 7y ago

> carbon emissions will plummet without any changes in [..] policies being involved. Wow, you really go as far as saying government was not involved? The only reason prices for renewables have gone down to where they are now is due to government policies that promote that tech. Details available on wiki [0]. This only happens if parties do care about environment & co. Here in germany it was actually done by a centre-right party by local standards, though obviously that would translate to "Left" when compared to the current US political landscape. Just like pretty much all parties here. Btw, we have more than two... this makes it quite a bit harder to group all you dislike as "the other". [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics

rossdavidh 7y ago
Well there is no part of any industry without _some_ kind of government involvement, but solar has been dropping in price for 50 years, and that spans many different kinds of administrations, some of which were decidedly more or less favorable. Much of it is simply the fact that technology tends towards exponential decline in price as volume goes up, which feeds on itself. Commodities tends to go up as volume goes up, which makes more of an oscillatory effect. Btw I don't dislike the Left, it's most of my friends.