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Depends on where you live I guess. Here in Norway 25% of all new cars sold is a Tesla.

by runeb 7y ago

Certhas 7y ago
That's an extreme outlier though. The vast majority of BEV vehicles sold are Chinese. And I am not sure it will last either. Volkswagen is planning to switch a factory that puts out 350.000 cars per year to 100% EV by middle of next year[1]. We'll soon find out what the relative difficulty of scaling from scratch vs switching at scale truly are. [1] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2019-07/automatisierung-volkswagen-vw-arbeitsplaetze-roboter-elektromobilitaet-werk-zwickau https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2019-07/automatisierung-volks...
- aaronblohowiak 7y ago
  Where are the batteries going to come from for that? I will bet you a thousand usd with 2:1 odds they do not produce 350,000 bev by July of 2021
  - Certhas 7y ago
    And why not? Remember that VW has ten times the R&D budget that Tesla has [2], and that they are committing to going heavily electric over the next years, and that the plans for this switch have been developing over many years already. Concretely they are building up joint ventures with all major manufacturers [1]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-batteries/vw-to-deepen-alliances-with-battery-suppliers-for-electric-push-idUSKCN1U30I8 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-batte... [2] https://i.imgur.com/AFzfS6i.png https://i.imgur.com/AFzfS6i.png Edit: BMW by comparison, does not seem to have a plan, has not worked towards a cultural shift towards EV, etc... Tesla might well eat their lunch for years to come...
    - aaronblohowiak 7y ago
      Maybe by 2025. However, my bet was specifically about 350k cars by July 2021. That’s 17.5 gwh of battery if they are a modest 50kwh packs per car. That’s about 2/3 of current gigafactory capacity. Do you think there is that much capacity available now or will be within a year? And if so, will VW be able to buy it all?
      - Certhas 7y ago
        In the story about their battery plans it says: "Volkswagen said that by 2025, it needs 150 gigawatt hours worth of battery production capacity in Europe and another 150 in Asia."

Depends on where you live I guess. Here in Norway 25% of all new cars sold is a Tesla.

by runeb 7y ago

Depends on where you live I guess. Here in Norway 25% of all new cars sold is a Tesla.

That's an extreme outlier though. The vast majority of BEV vehicles sold are Chinese. And I am not sure it will last either. Volkswagen is planning to switch a factory that puts out 350.000 cars per year to 100% EV by middle of next year[1]. We'll soon find out what the relative difficulty of scaling from scratch vs switching at scale truly are. [1] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2019-07/automatisierung-volkswagen-vw-arbeitsplaetze-roboter-elektromobilitaet-werk-zwickau https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2019-07/automatisierung-volks...

aaronblohowiak 7y ago
Where are the batteries going to come from for that? I will bet you a thousand usd with 2:1 odds they do not produce 350,000 bev by July of 2021
- Certhas 7y ago
  And why not? Remember that VW has ten times the R&D budget that Tesla has [2], and that they are committing to going heavily electric over the next years, and that the plans for this switch have been developing over many years already. Concretely they are building up joint ventures with all major manufacturers [1]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-batteries/vw-to-deepen-alliances-with-battery-suppliers-for-electric-push-idUSKCN1U30I8 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-batte... [2] https://i.imgur.com/AFzfS6i.png https://i.imgur.com/AFzfS6i.png Edit: BMW by comparison, does not seem to have a plan, has not worked towards a cultural shift towards EV, etc... Tesla might well eat their lunch for years to come...
  - aaronblohowiak 7y ago
    Maybe by 2025. However, my bet was specifically about 350k cars by July 2021. That’s 17.5 gwh of battery if they are a modest 50kwh packs per car. That’s about 2/3 of current gigafactory capacity. Do you think there is that much capacity available now or will be within a year? And if so, will VW be able to buy it all?
    - Certhas 7y ago
      In the story about their battery plans it says: "Volkswagen said that by 2025, it needs 150 gigawatt hours worth of battery production capacity in Europe and another 150 in Asia."