4 ms·

If "certainly had a chance" means "played baseball and was an OK prospect", sure, but then you're not saying much of anything. The truth is that it's a lot clo

If "certainly had a chance" means "played baseball and was an OK prospect", sure, but then you're not saying much of anything. The truth is that it's a lot closer to five thousand guys, a shoulder, and an elbow between a third/fourth round high school pitcher and an "eventual MVP". Take a look at the third rounds of 2010 [1], 2011 [2], 2012 [3] drafts, which are fairly representative: only ~40% have made the majors at all, and there's one All-Star reliever (zero chance at MVP) and one reserve All-Star catcher (with zero MVP votes in his career) of the lot. There are 750 active MLBers at any one time and the odds are 60-40 against a third/fourth round high school pitcher, the riskiest kind of prospect, joining them. And of the 58 league MVPs awarded since 1990, exactly three have gone to pitchers. [1] https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=3&year_ID=2010&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=3&year... [2] https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=3&year_ID=2011draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=3&year... [3] https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=3&year_ID=2012&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_round=3&year...

jessaustin 7y ago
Only 2/3 of first rounders make the majors, and there are political reasons to give them a chance, so it's not obvious that 40% means anything. You're the one who decided he'd be a "third/fourth" rounder anyway. He was a 37th rounder out of high school because he had already declared for college. You keep calling him a high school prospect, but if he had played four years in college that's not what he would have been. Also his father was in the majors for a decade. Numerous major league players thought he was talented enough for the majors. If you're telling me that MVP voting is set up to exclude pitchers, fine, he wouldn't have been an MVP. That seems rather far from the point, which was "athletic talent exists and dominates specialized practice". He did play baseball through his sophomore year of college, and he did wait to specialize on football until his junior year.
- elgenie 7y ago
  The scouting consensus is that he'd be a third/fourth rounder out of high school absent football [1]. That's being rather more charitable to his prospect stock than it probably deserves, considering he barely played in college as a freshman on a mediocre team (0 outs recorded, 2 walks, 1 HBP; 0-2 as a hitter [2]) and then didn't accumulate any stats as a sophomore before quitting. [1] https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mellinger/article192126014.html https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mell... [2] http://www.big12sports.com/fls/10410/ http://www.big12sports.com/fls/10410/
  - jessaustin 7y ago
    Great link! “We’d be pretty similar pitchers now,” said Michael Kopech, a high school rival of Mahomes’ and now baseball’s No. 10 prospect according to MLB.com. “He was just a bulldog. To be honest, I think anyone who ever played with or against Patrick would’ve assumed he would’ve been a pro in any sport he played.” Again, native talent not specialized practice. Or you could go with the example in TFA, Kobe Bryant who played more soccer than basketball until his junior year of high school. He still had some basketball success!

jessaustin 7y ago

Only 2/3 of first rounders make the majors, and there are political reasons to give them a chance, so it's not obvious that 40% means anything. You're the one who decided he'd be a "third/fourth" rounder anyway. He was a 37th rounder out of high school because he had already declared for college. You keep calling him a high school prospect, but if he had played four years in college that's not what he would have been. Also his father was in the majors for a decade. Numerous major league players thought he was talented enough for the majors. If you're telling me that MVP voting is set up to exclude pitchers, fine, he wouldn't have been an MVP. That seems rather far from the point, which was "athletic talent exists and dominates specialized practice". He did play baseball through his sophomore year of college, and he did wait to specialize on football until his junior year.

elgenie 7y ago
The scouting consensus is that he'd be a third/fourth rounder out of high school absent football [1]. That's being rather more charitable to his prospect stock than it probably deserves, considering he barely played in college as a freshman on a mediocre team (0 outs recorded, 2 walks, 1 HBP; 0-2 as a hitter [2]) and then didn't accumulate any stats as a sophomore before quitting. [1] https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mellinger/article192126014.html https://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mell... [2] http://www.big12sports.com/fls/10410/ http://www.big12sports.com/fls/10410/
- jessaustin 7y ago
  Great link! “We’d be pretty similar pitchers now,” said Michael Kopech, a high school rival of Mahomes’ and now baseball’s No. 10 prospect according to MLB.com. “He was just a bulldog. To be honest, I think anyone who ever played with or against Patrick would’ve assumed he would’ve been a pro in any sport he played.” Again, native talent not specialized practice. Or you could go with the example in TFA, Kobe Bryant who played more soccer than basketball until his junior year of high school. He still had some basketball success!