I got my first cell phone in 2008 as a junior in college, recognizing that it was getting to be too difficult looking for internships relying on my landline. I

I got my first cell phone in 2008 as a junior in college, recognizing that it was getting to be too difficult looking for internships relying on my landline. I didn't want anything fancy, so I just got the phone that came "free" with the plan. That phone had a camera and a basic Internet browser. Based on that, I'm pretty sure we'll be seeing smartphones offered at roughly the same subsidized price point as a dumbphone by 2012, and I'd actually call that a pretty conservative estimate; they could definitely show up in the first half of 2011. Giving someone a $100-200 phone with a 100mb data cap is nothing, provided you can upsell a reasonable number of them to a 1GB data cap by the end of their contract. I could also see data/text-only phones showing up with 250MB-1GB caps in the near future, possibly rolled in with some VOIP app that bills voice as data. (It's an accident of a minimally competitive marketplace with minimal regulation that we haven't seen these already.)