6 ms·

Knowing when to bluff often depends on the psychology of the opponent, but since it trained playing itself it doesn't seem that knowing when to bluff would be l

Knowing when to bluff often depends on the psychology of the opponent, but since it trained playing itself it doesn't seem that knowing when to bluff would be learned. Did it bluff very often?

femto113 7y ago
At the highest levels of play psychological factors are pretty minimal. Before a showdown which cards you actually hold aren't particularly material, as the only information you convey is through your bids. This means if you predict that you're more likely to win a hand by bidding (and inducing a fold) than by calling and going to a showdown it makes mathematical sense to "bluff". I'm sure AIs have no trouble learning that fact.
- elcomet 7y ago
  The issue is that you don't know exactly the probability of your opponent folding. This is psychology.
  - NhanH 7y ago
    The probability of the opponent folding doesn't matter. The goal of bluffing in modern games is so that optimal players are indifferent in their decision (no matter how they play, you can't lose money). And because this is a zero sum game, if you can't lose money then you win if the opponent makes mistake. You only need to know the probability of the opponent folding so that you can deviate from the theoretical optimal strategy to win even more money if they are a biased player
  - waynecochran 7y ago
    I'll have to go back and watch Data playing poker on Star Trek NG -- what do sci fi writers think of this.
noambrown 7y ago
The bot does bluff, and in fact it learns from self-play that bluffing is (sometimes) the optimal thing to do. At the end of the day, bluffing is simply betting when you have a weak hand. The bot learns from experience that when it bets with a weak hand, the opponent (another copy of itself) sometimes folds and it makes more money than if it hadn't bet. The bot doesn't view it as deceptive or dishonest. It just views it as the action that makes it the most money. Of course, a key part of bluffing is getting the probabilities right. You can't always bluff and you can't never bluff, because that would make you too predictable. But our self-play and search algorithms are designed to get those probabilities right.
- albedoa 7y ago
  > when it bets with a weak hand, the opponent (another copy of itself) sometimes folds and it makes more money than if it hadn't bet. This makes no sense. If I am betting for thin value with a weak hand, then I make less money when my opponent folds. Does the bot not know whether it is bluffing or value betting?
  - Denzel 7y ago
    It makes complete sense. There’s a component of value and a component of bluff for a given hand in front of you. They’re related. Value betting and bluffing aren’t defined by the outcome of a hand — action yet to be completed. Poker is a game of hidden information so betting with “thin value” implies that your component of bluffing is larger. You want your opponent to fold more often than not when you have thin value because more often than not you’re actually beat. QQ can get KK to fold based upon board texture, street, and prior action. But you don’t know the other person is holding KK when you’re betting for “thin value” on the river.
    - albedoa 7y ago
      > You want your opponent to fold more often than not when you have thin value because more often than not you’re actually beat. No, that is simply not true. If I am betting for value, then I want my opponent to call no matter how weak I am or how thin it is. > But you don’t know the other person is holding KK when you’re betting for “thin value” on the river. Then it's a value bet. As you said, it's not defined by the outcome.

Knowing when to bluff often depends on the psychology of the opponent, but since it trained playing itself it doesn't seem that knowing when to bluff would be learned. Did it bluff very often?

femto113 7y ago

At the highest levels of play psychological factors are pretty minimal. Before a showdown which cards you actually hold aren't particularly material, as the only information you convey is through your bids. This means if you predict that you're more likely to win a hand by bidding (and inducing a fold) than by calling and going to a showdown it makes mathematical sense to "bluff". I'm sure AIs have no trouble learning that fact.

elcomet 7y ago
The issue is that you don't know exactly the probability of your opponent folding. This is psychology.
- NhanH 7y ago
  The probability of the opponent folding doesn't matter. The goal of bluffing in modern games is so that optimal players are indifferent in their decision (no matter how they play, you can't lose money). And because this is a zero sum game, if you can't lose money then you win if the opponent makes mistake. You only need to know the probability of the opponent folding so that you can deviate from the theoretical optimal strategy to win even more money if they are a biased player
- waynecochran 7y ago
  I'll have to go back and watch Data playing poker on Star Trek NG -- what do sci fi writers think of this.

noambrown 7y ago

The bot does bluff, and in fact it learns from self-play that bluffing is (sometimes) the optimal thing to do. At the end of the day, bluffing is simply betting when you have a weak hand. The bot learns from experience that when it bets with a weak hand, the opponent (another copy of itself) sometimes folds and it makes more money than if it hadn't bet. The bot doesn't view it as deceptive or dishonest. It just views it as the action that makes it the most money. Of course, a key part of bluffing is getting the probabilities right. You can't always bluff and you can't never bluff, because that would make you too predictable. But our self-play and search algorithms are designed to get those probabilities right.

albedoa 7y ago
> when it bets with a weak hand, the opponent (another copy of itself) sometimes folds and it makes more money than if it hadn't bet. This makes no sense. If I am betting for thin value with a weak hand, then I make less money when my opponent folds. Does the bot not know whether it is bluffing or value betting?
- Denzel 7y ago
  It makes complete sense. There’s a component of value and a component of bluff for a given hand in front of you. They’re related. Value betting and bluffing aren’t defined by the outcome of a hand — action yet to be completed. Poker is a game of hidden information so betting with “thin value” implies that your component of bluffing is larger. You want your opponent to fold more often than not when you have thin value because more often than not you’re actually beat. QQ can get KK to fold based upon board texture, street, and prior action. But you don’t know the other person is holding KK when you’re betting for “thin value” on the river.
  - albedoa 7y ago
    > You want your opponent to fold more often than not when you have thin value because more often than not you’re actually beat. No, that is simply not true. If I am betting for value, then I want my opponent to call no matter how weak I am or how thin it is. > But you don’t know the other person is holding KK when you’re betting for “thin value” on the river. Then it's a value bet. As you said, it's not defined by the outcome.