3 ms·

I suspect that Peak Netflix is already behind us. They've been quite frank that in their current incarnation they're aiming to become the next HBO (see https://

I suspect that Peak Netflix is already behind us. They've been quite frank that in their current incarnation they're aiming to become the next HBO (see https://gizmodo.com/netflix-the-goal-is-to-become-hbo-faster-than-hbo-can-5980103 https://gizmodo.com/netflix-the-goal-is-to-become-hbo-faster...), and while HBO was definitely the "gold standard" of prestige TV, it was never anywhere near crowding out its many rivals. The big question mark hanging over this plan is that they are burning tons of borrowed money to achieve it. Do those investors think they're buying into HBO 2.0, or do they think they're buying into a future monopoly? The sheer amount of money they've been able to raise suggests the latter, which means those investors are going to be unpleasantly surprised at some point down the road.

Retric 7y ago
Calculating Netflix profitability over the short term is hard because it’s difficult to value the residuals from their IP. If for example stranger things is still being watched in 20 years that’s less content they then need to pay for over time. I don’t think they are creating a lot of valuable content right now. But, that’s more option than fact.
- scarface74 7y ago
  Do you really want to compare the value of Netflix’s IP to that of Disney or Warner?
  - Retric 7y ago
    It’s not about the situation today. Right now Netflix is paying Disney quite a bit of money to use their IP, but that really can change with time.
    - scarface74 7y ago
      That’s not the point. Disney will soon have their own streaming service with a much better library.
      - Retric 7y ago
        That’s likely to present a problem. Disney has a lot of depth in their library, but are unlikely to drastically reduce DVD/Blueray/etc sales by including the full thing. Meanwhile customers are going to be disappointed unless they have full access to their entire catalog for a very low monthly fee. They may leverage the thing to surpass Netflix’s 150 million customer base. But, it’s far from a forgone conclusion at this point.
        scarface74 7y ago
        Disney has a lot of preexisting deals that they are waiting to expire. But they have said that as deals expire, they will be bringing everything to Disney+. From the CEO: https://www.digitaltrends.com/movies/disney-plus-tv-shows-movies/ https://www.digitaltrends.com/movies/disney-plus-tv-shows-mo... During an investors’ meeting, Disney CEO Bob Iger claimed that every single movie in the Disney catalog will arrive on Disney Plus “at some point fairly soon after launch.” Previously, Disney only released its most popular animated films on home video on a limited-time basis in order to make them feel more special. However, the so-called Disney “vault” is going to vanish when Disney Plus arrives. On day one. https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/disney-plus-lineup-shows-movies-streaming-1203188116/ https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/disney-plus-lineup-sho...
        Retric 7y ago
        Movies are only one piece. The Disney also has a lot of TV content and even a 67% ownership share in existing streaming service Hulu. I mean if their existing streaming service is firmly in edit: third place and they are looking to add a second that’s just not a great sign.

Retric 7y ago

Calculating Netflix profitability over the short term is hard because it’s difficult to value the residuals from their IP. If for example stranger things is still being watched in 20 years that’s less content they then need to pay for over time. I don’t think they are creating a lot of valuable content right now. But, that’s more option than fact.

scarface74 7y ago
Do you really want to compare the value of Netflix’s IP to that of Disney or Warner?
- Retric 7y ago
  It’s not about the situation today. Right now Netflix is paying Disney quite a bit of money to use their IP, but that really can change with time.
  - scarface74 7y ago
    That’s not the point. Disney will soon have their own streaming service with a much better library.
    - Retric 7y ago
      That’s likely to present a problem. Disney has a lot of depth in their library, but are unlikely to drastically reduce DVD/Blueray/etc sales by including the full thing. Meanwhile customers are going to be disappointed unless they have full access to their entire catalog for a very low monthly fee. They may leverage the thing to surpass Netflix’s 150 million customer base. But, it’s far from a forgone conclusion at this point.
      - scarface74 7y ago
        Disney has a lot of preexisting deals that they are waiting to expire. But they have said that as deals expire, they will be bringing everything to Disney+. From the CEO: https://www.digitaltrends.com/movies/disney-plus-tv-shows-movies/ https://www.digitaltrends.com/movies/disney-plus-tv-shows-mo... During an investors’ meeting, Disney CEO Bob Iger claimed that every single movie in the Disney catalog will arrive on Disney Plus “at some point fairly soon after launch.” Previously, Disney only released its most popular animated films on home video on a limited-time basis in order to make them feel more special. However, the so-called Disney “vault” is going to vanish when Disney Plus arrives. On day one. https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/disney-plus-lineup-shows-movies-streaming-1203188116/ https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/disney-plus-lineup-sho...
        Retric 7y ago
        Movies are only one piece. The Disney also has a lot of TV content and even a 67% ownership share in existing streaming service Hulu. I mean if their existing streaming service is firmly in edit: third place and they are looking to add a second that’s just not a great sign.