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I don't understand this backlog for airplanes (Boeing and Airbus): Is this kind of backlog normal in industrial scale? Is it not viable to scale up production w

I don't understand this backlog for airplanes (Boeing and Airbus): Is this kind of backlog normal in industrial scale? Is it not viable to scale up production with the massive tail of suppliers that would all need to scale up?

NikolaeVarius 7y ago
No. Airplane manufacturing is extremely complex and has dozens of subcontractors who all work at their own rate. Boeing is not integrated like SpaceX
- jandrese 7y ago
  Which is honestly part of their problem. They have discovered that integration and testing costs scale with the multiple of the number of subcontractors you use. The money you save on upfront development costs ends up being burned on extended integration testing and general inefficiencies (time zone/language/culture differences). Granted, the -MAX8's problem seems to stem from the need to race Airbus to the market and not having the time to do proper integration tests, but the difficulty with testing is directly related to complications in this development model. Also, Boeing is way overdue for a proper 737 replacement. A 737 sized bird using 787 design principles/technology and built to properly handle the massive engines that modern customers crave.
  - bradhe 7y ago
    > A 737 sized bird using 787 design principles/technology and built to properly handle the massive engines that modern customers crave. They should definitely make that! They could call it the...737 MAXIMUM SIZE. Or maybe the 7373 MAX for short?
Havoc 7y ago
The issue lies in viewing it as a backlog. It's not since it implies someone's behind schedule. It's more like long range planning with commitments as defined by airlines 10 year plans. They __don't__ want the planes now like a backlog would imply, they want them in 2021. Also, schedules tend to align with the cycle of the industry. New planes take time to develop etc. So everything happens on a year(s) schedule, incl delivery schedules. >Is it not viable to scale up production And then what are you gonna do with all that infrastructure sitting idle for 8 years in between your aircraft generations? Sometimes slow is the profitable approach
- jimbob45 7y ago
  Then in that case, does that mean that Boeing won't lose any money provided that they keep their backlog full for the duration of the aircraft's life cycle? (maybe 20 years). Seems like they have many years to fill the hole made by Saudi Arabia at no real loss.
  - Havoc 7y ago
    >Boeing won't lose any money provided that they keep their backlog full for the duration of the aircraft's life cycle? The 737 (all variants) is/was/will be massively popular so I'd imagine as a project it's probably still profitable. The danger here is reputation. Boeing has in the space of a year ruined a multi-decade reputation. I mentioned this before, but all these articles scream underlying institutional culture problems. Remember the one a month or so ago about a Boeing engineer saying he's uncomfortable letting family fly on a Boeing plane? Forget a lost order, that's existential crisis territory for an organization.
- redis_mlc 7y ago
  > They __don't__ want the planes now like a backlog would imply, they want them in 2021. Well, that's not 100% accurate. Airlines always want the most fuel-efficient plane now, but will settle for ASAP. With leasing, they can dump their old planes and lease new models. That's why the Singapore A380s were chopped up this year - they were heavy and thus not fuel efficient. The DC-1/DC-2 was developed for TWA because Boeing promised their entire 247 production run to United.
toast0 7y ago
Adding an additional line is a large capital expense for the manufacturer itself and probably most of its suppliers; and once you make it through the backlog, you would likely need to idle it. It's better for Boeing to sell 400 737s a year every year for ten years, than 800 a year for two years, then 300 a year for the next eight years.
jjwhitaker 7y ago
For context, Boeing is making about 50 of these planes per month to the point that when they were grounded but production continued they had Tetris'd unpainted planes across the site including in staff parking areas. I hadn't seen much news on production slowing but they have massive orders to fill at designated times.
jacques_chester 7y ago
Apparently they did that in the 90s and wound up stepping on their own feet. It turned out that it's more profitable to make the buyers wait. Plus there's a healthy negotiating chip: pay us more and jump the queue.

NikolaeVarius 7y ago

No. Airplane manufacturing is extremely complex and has dozens of subcontractors who all work at their own rate. Boeing is not integrated like SpaceX

jandrese 7y ago
Which is honestly part of their problem. They have discovered that integration and testing costs scale with the multiple of the number of subcontractors you use. The money you save on upfront development costs ends up being burned on extended integration testing and general inefficiencies (time zone/language/culture differences). Granted, the -MAX8's problem seems to stem from the need to race Airbus to the market and not having the time to do proper integration tests, but the difficulty with testing is directly related to complications in this development model. Also, Boeing is way overdue for a proper 737 replacement. A 737 sized bird using 787 design principles/technology and built to properly handle the massive engines that modern customers crave.
- bradhe 7y ago
  > A 737 sized bird using 787 design principles/technology and built to properly handle the massive engines that modern customers crave. They should definitely make that! They could call it the...737 MAXIMUM SIZE. Or maybe the 7373 MAX for short?

Havoc 7y ago

The issue lies in viewing it as a backlog. It's not since it implies someone's behind schedule. It's more like long range planning with commitments as defined by airlines 10 year plans. They __don't__ want the planes now like a backlog would imply, they want them in 2021. Also, schedules tend to align with the cycle of the industry. New planes take time to develop etc. So everything happens on a year(s) schedule, incl delivery schedules. >Is it not viable to scale up production And then what are you gonna do with all that infrastructure sitting idle for 8 years in between your aircraft generations? Sometimes slow is the profitable approach

jimbob45 7y ago
Then in that case, does that mean that Boeing won't lose any money provided that they keep their backlog full for the duration of the aircraft's life cycle? (maybe 20 years). Seems like they have many years to fill the hole made by Saudi Arabia at no real loss.
- Havoc 7y ago
  >Boeing won't lose any money provided that they keep their backlog full for the duration of the aircraft's life cycle? The 737 (all variants) is/was/will be massively popular so I'd imagine as a project it's probably still profitable. The danger here is reputation. Boeing has in the space of a year ruined a multi-decade reputation. I mentioned this before, but all these articles scream underlying institutional culture problems. Remember the one a month or so ago about a Boeing engineer saying he's uncomfortable letting family fly on a Boeing plane? Forget a lost order, that's existential crisis territory for an organization.
redis_mlc 7y ago
> They __don't__ want the planes now like a backlog would imply, they want them in 2021. Well, that's not 100% accurate. Airlines always want the most fuel-efficient plane now, but will settle for ASAP. With leasing, they can dump their old planes and lease new models. That's why the Singapore A380s were chopped up this year - they were heavy and thus not fuel efficient. The DC-1/DC-2 was developed for TWA because Boeing promised their entire 247 production run to United.

toast0 7y ago

Adding an additional line is a large capital expense for the manufacturer itself and probably most of its suppliers; and once you make it through the backlog, you would likely need to idle it. It's better for Boeing to sell 400 737s a year every year for ten years, than 800 a year for two years, then 300 a year for the next eight years.

jjwhitaker 7y ago

For context, Boeing is making about 50 of these planes per month to the point that when they were grounded but production continued they had Tetris'd unpainted planes across the site including in staff parking areas. I hadn't seen much news on production slowing but they have massive orders to fill at designated times.

jacques_chester 7y ago

Apparently they did that in the 90s and wound up stepping on their own feet. It turned out that it's more profitable to make the buyers wait. Plus there's a healthy negotiating chip: pay us more and jump the queue.