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Local governments (at least in the US) seem to systematically underinvest in experiments like this. Things like traffic congestion have a ton of weird, largely

Local governments (at least in the US) seem to systematically underinvest in experiments like this. Things like traffic congestion have a ton of weird, largely unpredictable positive and negative feedback loops. Seattle removed its waterfront viaduct from service for a couple of weeks before changing over to the new $3.3B tunnel and traffic was mostly fine, despite apocalyptic predictions of gridlock. It's not entirely unfair to claim that they could have saved literally billions of dollars by just closing the viaduct for a month or two and observing what happens to traffic patterns. Or businesses that predict their imminent bankruptcy when a few parking spots are removed to create a bike lane. Why not put down a few traffic cones to delineate a temporary bike lane and observe what happens to traffic in and out of the businesses?

dsfyu404ed 7y ago
Local governments are generally paralyzed by a fear of being liable if it somehow goes sideways. Of course they cling to the status quo for dear life.
- adrianpike 7y ago
  Exactly! In my day job, a lot of our customers are small to medium governments, and their primary decision points are around risk exposure. We've managed to set up our government to optimize for avoiding possible downsides instead of innovating and making the status quo better.
  - Steltek 7y ago
    Defaulting to caution and conservatism in local government doesn't sound entirely bad. It's too easy to bring the power and authority of government down with unintended consequences on disadvantaged people. Think abuse of eminent domain or similar. However, I don't think this argument applies to cars, which are not people.
    - dsfyu404ed 7y ago
      >It's too easy to bring the power and authority of government down with unintended consequences on disadvantaged people. Think abuse of eminent domain or similar. True, but for the past century so much power has been centralized at the state and federal level I think the abuse potential at the local level is very low. The "actually affect change" potential of your average citizen is highest at the local level. If experimentation and competition is going to happen I think the local level is best. Of course from time to time you get dumb crap like Sac country's working on your car ban but the number of people effected is kept minimal while everyone else gets to point and laugh and learn what not to do. It's a much bigger pain when that kind of stuff happens at the state or federal level.
- alkonaut 7y ago
  This is why they need to be pushed into having lofty goals like reducing traffic/emissions, improving public health and so on. And then they should be held to those goals, forcing them to take risks and spend. What I hear all the time with programs like this (where politicians almost have the opposite problem) is basically this type of (slightly made up) media dialog: “won’t it be dangerous to force children to ride bikes from age one?” “Yes, but if we are to meet the emission goals by 2025 we have no choice”. To be clear, think it’s good that politicians are more afraid of being seen as having done too little, than they are afraid of being liable for their actions.
  - filoleg 7y ago
    >What I hear all the time with programs like this (where politicians almost have the opposite problem) is basically this type of (slightly made up) media dialog: “won’t it be dangerous to force children to ride bikes from age one?” >“Yes, but if we are to meet the emission goals by 2025 we have no choice”. Yeah, I don't think that you will succeed in convincing any parent with this kind of argument. Getting their kid hit by a car is a way more "real" and tangible concern for parents than some abstract emission goal.
    - Steltek 7y ago
      As a parent in this exact situation, my reason is not primarily climate change (although it's high up on the list); it's about fostering independence and confidence. I'm pissed off that it's families and cyclists that somehow bear the enormous responsibility for improving driver behavior and justifying road infrastructure. We admit that our streets are by default "never safe" and then shrug and walk away.
      - jschwartzi 7y ago
        Yeah, recent experience with other drivers in my area is convincing me that the only reasonable thing to do is ban cars.
        7y ago
adrianpike 7y ago
In all fairness, we had enough warning coming into it, and it was a short enough time period, that a lot of people I know were able to adjust their commutes (or avoid them entirely) for a few weeks so the trafficpocalypse never really came to fruition. On the flipside, ferry parking was an absolute wreck of congestion for locals and tourists alike. also, hi Frank! :)
- frankus 7y ago
  I guess one limitation is that "we can make this work for a couple of weeks" doesn't imply "we can do this indefinitely". On the other hand, you might be able to fix most of the pain points for a fraction of the price of the tunnel. (also, hi Adrian :)
wil421 7y ago
In Atlanta we had one of our main highways collapse, I85. It was the exit after my place. Everyone adjusted and it actually forced people to ride the train. The train stations had to borrow parking spaces from businesses and schools. Everyone will adjust. On the first day it will be a disaster if it’s unexpected.
- nightfly 7y ago
  For years I commuted by train/bus to school/work until I could afford (the extra $200ish per month) to switch to driving to claw-back an hour of time I spent commuting each day. If traffic devolved to the point that I wouldn't be able to drive to work anymore I /would/ adjust, but I'd be generally less happy for it.
  - wil421 7y ago
    I’ve since moved houses and jobs. Both are impossible by train or bus. They are putting bike lanes on about 40% of my commute but 12 miles each way is a bit of a stretch.
    - CalRobert 7y ago
      With the right infrastructure, 12 miles is about a 45-50 minute ride, for what it's worth. When I commuted from Santa Monica to El Segundo it was 13 miles and the bike averaged ~5 minutes slower than car (I was in the best shape of my life and loved starting the day that way, to boot.)
      - dmd 7y ago
        12 miles through freezing rain or snow is a bit harder, and that's the majority of the year for most in the US.
      - criddell 7y ago
        At lot of that depends on where you live. Southern California has a pretty ideal climate. I'm in Austin and I can manage my 7 mile commute in the summer until the temperature gets above about 102. I'm fortunate that my workplace has a shower. A 12 mile winter commute in some of the northern states could be pretty dangerous.
cortesoft 7y ago
> Seattle removed its waterfront viaduct from service for a couple of weeks before changing over to the new $3.3B tunnel and traffic was mostly fine, despite apocalyptic predictions of gridlock. I think this is not really capturing the full impact. This could have been caused by people choosing not to travel as much, and we would have to measure the economic impact of the reduced travel. Are people not visiting local businesses because they decide to stay home? Not saying you aren't correct, just that traffic levels are only one thing we need to look at.
- hirsin 7y ago
  The opposite likely occurred re: local businesses. People stayed home in Renton and spent money locally instead of spending it in Seattle.
- stopnamingnuts 7y ago
  I concur. My wife commutes north-south and was just able to get through Viadoom but it was a close run thing. It would have been apocalyptic if permanent. I sometimes wonder if proponents of shut-it-off-and-see-what-breaks strategies are people in my organization's network infrastructure group using throwaway accounts. They love that approach.
saikit 7y ago
The locals in the US are militant against anything that reduces street parking in their neighborhoods. See 14th street bus lanes in NYC. https://www.amny.com/transit/14th-street-busway-lawsuit-1.33243425 https://www.amny.com/transit/14th-street-busway-lawsuit-1.33...
- halbritt 7y ago
  This, pretty much. Motorists can be extraordinarily vocal without realizing how extraordinarily entitled they are to be able to operate their motor vehicles in urban environments where accommodating those motorists has an extraordinarily detrimental effect on the community in terms of space, traffic, pollution, congestion, etc. Not really a slight against motorists, I am one and never had this realization until I spent some time trying to use other modes of transportation. People are accustomed to being able to drive everywhere and that just isn't sustainable.
  - tastygreenapple 7y ago
    In America, Motorist == Community. It's bikers who are deviations from normal. We've built our cities for cars, now these bikers demand 'inclusion' on infrastructure they broadly don't pay for while flagrantly violating laws (ever seen a bicyclist come to a complete stop at a stop sign? Me neither).
    - ghostly_s 7y ago
      There's something almost cute about hauling out an argument this tired on a site for people who like to consider themselves on the cutting edge.
    - fader 7y ago
      That's a beautiful example of the entitlement in question. Cyclists pay taxes (did you think that gas taxes are high enough to pay for roads?), cause orders of magnitude less damage and wear to the road surfaces than automobiles, and don't use anywhere near the amount of valuable land as free storage for their vehicles when not in use. (The law violation works both ways too. Ever seen a motorist obey the speed limit? Me neither.)
Johnny555 7y ago
I don't think something like this would be that successful in the USA - it's not lack of parking that keeps most people from riding, it's lack of protected bike lanes (or other "safe" routes), and lack of cultural acceptance of biking. Plus, open, street parking isn't that safe in a lot of cities, if I could ask for some specific parking infrastructure, I'd ask for lockable bike lockers... though I'd rather see bike lanes and other infrastructure that helps me get to work safely.
- dancek 7y ago
  Is the problem with open parking stealing bikes, stealing parts or breaking bikes? The obvious safety strategy is to have a bike of lesser value with better locks than what's available nearby. But I also ponder what it would be like to own a really valuable bike. Do people steal handlebars or something, because that would make sense to me? Or is vandalism the bigger issue?
  - lazyasciiart 7y ago
    People steal wheels, handlebars, bells, lights, bike racks and seats.
    - 8ytecoder 7y ago
      And break seatposts when they are angry they couldn’t steal anything. I had a not too fancy bike that uses Pinhead locks to secure every removable component. And a sturdy U lock. There were multiple attempts to steal various components including an angry thief breaking the seat post for no good reason - the saddle is worthless. Only finally to be stolen from a secure parking garage using an electric saw in full view of the CCTV camera. Police did nothing - not that I expected them to - enough other crimes for them to deal with. Insurance paid for it. I used it to buy a nicer bike that I only ride on weekends. I’m back to taking public transit and supplanting that with bike share and walking. One of the attempts included a bike next to me that was stolen from a really popular tourist area with a cafe seating opposite the rack. When I see the way bikes are parked in Amsterdam it makes me jealous. I want to move there just for that freedom. I enjoy biking. I have heard London is worse. Solutions are emerging. There’s a crowdfunded tracker that claims to solve the radio communication problem from inside a metal body. If true, it can track the bike with a tracker located inside the frame.
scythe 7y ago
I think the applicability of these types of observations may be limited. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_critique http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_critique People respond differently to a change they expect will be temporary vs a permanent change. You wouldn’t buy a bike to use a temporary lane, for example.
- mrmanner 7y ago
  My hometown tried giving away studded tires to 20-30 people in exchange for them sharing their experiences after commuting a whole winter. Maybe the same could work for temporary bike lanes - the city buys a hundred bikes, a hundred people loan them for free during the trial period. After the trial they can be sold or given away - the knowledge gained would be worth the cost either way.
GateCrasher 7y ago
Dutchman living in NYC here. Manhattan seems perfect for cycling: small distances, wide roads (lots of space for bike lanes), not very hilly. Sometimes it rains but definitely not more often then the Netherlands. That they choose to fill all the streets with big Suburbans bewilders me. Especially when the only alternative is the subway.
- vonmoltke 7y ago
  > That they choose to fill all the streets with big Suburbans Where do you even see Suburbans in Manhattan that don't belong to the NYPD, the MTA, or a black car service, let alone streets filled with them?
icelancer 7y ago
>> It's not entirely unfair to claim that they could have saved literally billions of dollars by just closing the viaduct for a month or two and observing what happens to traffic patterns. This is basically what should have happened. The fact that we rarely do experiments in local government is infinitely maddening to me.
laingc 7y ago
This doesn’t directly address your point, but a particular cycleway in my city (Wellington, NZ) has unquestionably put several small businesses out of business, and is well on its way to killing a previously thriving village centre. As a personal disclaimer, I lived in Europe for years, where my primary means of transport was a bicycle, and after careful consideration over many years I am firmly in favour of personal motor vehicles as a means of transport.
- briga 7y ago
  It's interesting that you say the cycleway unquestionably put small businesses out of business--why do you think that? In North America small businesses and town centres are generally under threat from big shopping centres and the way large highways that literally split communities in half. After seeing how smoothly dense cities in the Netherlands can function with advanced bicycle infrastructure I'm convinced that bikes should have an effect opposite to what you mention.
  - laingc 7y ago
    Well that’s not what I think, it’s a matter of public record and is widely known here. The city council had to remove parking from in front of shops in order to put the cycleway in. No parks means no customers.
jameslars 7y ago
I for one purposely worked remotely for at least 75% of "viadoom" specifically because of all the warnings beforehand. Many of my coworkers did as well. That may have had something to do with everything working out? They warned us very much in advance to make plans to deal with it, and people seemed to. Another anecdata, the days I did commute in the bus was at least 50% fuller than "normal".
rory096 7y ago
Here in central Virginia our city traffic department has been running a number of bike/ped experiments with plastic bollards. The NIMBY backlash has been severe and at least one has been rolled back. 'Experiments' only work if they're testing something measurable. Otherwise they're just an undo button.

dsfyu404ed 7y ago

Local governments are generally paralyzed by a fear of being liable if it somehow goes sideways. Of course they cling to the status quo for dear life.

adrianpike 7y ago
Exactly! In my day job, a lot of our customers are small to medium governments, and their primary decision points are around risk exposure. We've managed to set up our government to optimize for avoiding possible downsides instead of innovating and making the status quo better.
- Steltek 7y ago
  Defaulting to caution and conservatism in local government doesn't sound entirely bad. It's too easy to bring the power and authority of government down with unintended consequences on disadvantaged people. Think abuse of eminent domain or similar. However, I don't think this argument applies to cars, which are not people.
  - dsfyu404ed 7y ago
    >It's too easy to bring the power and authority of government down with unintended consequences on disadvantaged people. Think abuse of eminent domain or similar. True, but for the past century so much power has been centralized at the state and federal level I think the abuse potential at the local level is very low. The "actually affect change" potential of your average citizen is highest at the local level. If experimentation and competition is going to happen I think the local level is best. Of course from time to time you get dumb crap like Sac country's working on your car ban but the number of people effected is kept minimal while everyone else gets to point and laugh and learn what not to do. It's a much bigger pain when that kind of stuff happens at the state or federal level.
alkonaut 7y ago
This is why they need to be pushed into having lofty goals like reducing traffic/emissions, improving public health and so on. And then they should be held to those goals, forcing them to take risks and spend. What I hear all the time with programs like this (where politicians almost have the opposite problem) is basically this type of (slightly made up) media dialog: “won’t it be dangerous to force children to ride bikes from age one?” “Yes, but if we are to meet the emission goals by 2025 we have no choice”. To be clear, think it’s good that politicians are more afraid of being seen as having done too little, than they are afraid of being liable for their actions.
- filoleg 7y ago
  >What I hear all the time with programs like this (where politicians almost have the opposite problem) is basically this type of (slightly made up) media dialog: “won’t it be dangerous to force children to ride bikes from age one?” >“Yes, but if we are to meet the emission goals by 2025 we have no choice”. Yeah, I don't think that you will succeed in convincing any parent with this kind of argument. Getting their kid hit by a car is a way more "real" and tangible concern for parents than some abstract emission goal.
  - Steltek 7y ago
    As a parent in this exact situation, my reason is not primarily climate change (although it's high up on the list); it's about fostering independence and confidence. I'm pissed off that it's families and cyclists that somehow bear the enormous responsibility for improving driver behavior and justifying road infrastructure. We admit that our streets are by default "never safe" and then shrug and walk away.
    - jschwartzi 7y ago
      Yeah, recent experience with other drivers in my area is convincing me that the only reasonable thing to do is ban cars.
      - 7y ago

adrianpike 7y ago

In all fairness, we had enough warning coming into it, and it was a short enough time period, that a lot of people I know were able to adjust their commutes (or avoid them entirely) for a few weeks so the trafficpocalypse never really came to fruition. On the flipside, ferry parking was an absolute wreck of congestion for locals and tourists alike. also, hi Frank! :)

frankus 7y ago
I guess one limitation is that "we can make this work for a couple of weeks" doesn't imply "we can do this indefinitely". On the other hand, you might be able to fix most of the pain points for a fraction of the price of the tunnel. (also, hi Adrian :)

wil421 7y ago

In Atlanta we had one of our main highways collapse, I85. It was the exit after my place. Everyone adjusted and it actually forced people to ride the train. The train stations had to borrow parking spaces from businesses and schools. Everyone will adjust. On the first day it will be a disaster if it’s unexpected.

nightfly 7y ago
For years I commuted by train/bus to school/work until I could afford (the extra $200ish per month) to switch to driving to claw-back an hour of time I spent commuting each day. If traffic devolved to the point that I wouldn't be able to drive to work anymore I /would/ adjust, but I'd be generally less happy for it.
- wil421 7y ago
  I’ve since moved houses and jobs. Both are impossible by train or bus. They are putting bike lanes on about 40% of my commute but 12 miles each way is a bit of a stretch.
  - CalRobert 7y ago
    With the right infrastructure, 12 miles is about a 45-50 minute ride, for what it's worth. When I commuted from Santa Monica to El Segundo it was 13 miles and the bike averaged ~5 minutes slower than car (I was in the best shape of my life and loved starting the day that way, to boot.)
    - dmd 7y ago
      12 miles through freezing rain or snow is a bit harder, and that's the majority of the year for most in the US.
    - criddell 7y ago
      At lot of that depends on where you live. Southern California has a pretty ideal climate. I'm in Austin and I can manage my 7 mile commute in the summer until the temperature gets above about 102. I'm fortunate that my workplace has a shower. A 12 mile winter commute in some of the northern states could be pretty dangerous.

cortesoft 7y ago

> Seattle removed its waterfront viaduct from service for a couple of weeks before changing over to the new $3.3B tunnel and traffic was mostly fine, despite apocalyptic predictions of gridlock. I think this is not really capturing the full impact. This could have been caused by people choosing not to travel as much, and we would have to measure the economic impact of the reduced travel. Are people not visiting local businesses because they decide to stay home? Not saying you aren't correct, just that traffic levels are only one thing we need to look at.

hirsin 7y ago
The opposite likely occurred re: local businesses. People stayed home in Renton and spent money locally instead of spending it in Seattle.
stopnamingnuts 7y ago
I concur. My wife commutes north-south and was just able to get through Viadoom but it was a close run thing. It would have been apocalyptic if permanent. I sometimes wonder if proponents of shut-it-off-and-see-what-breaks strategies are people in my organization's network infrastructure group using throwaway accounts. They love that approach.

saikit 7y ago

The locals in the US are militant against anything that reduces street parking in their neighborhoods. See 14th street bus lanes in NYC. https://www.amny.com/transit/14th-street-busway-lawsuit-1.33243425 https://www.amny.com/transit/14th-street-busway-lawsuit-1.33...

halbritt 7y ago
This, pretty much. Motorists can be extraordinarily vocal without realizing how extraordinarily entitled they are to be able to operate their motor vehicles in urban environments where accommodating those motorists has an extraordinarily detrimental effect on the community in terms of space, traffic, pollution, congestion, etc. Not really a slight against motorists, I am one and never had this realization until I spent some time trying to use other modes of transportation. People are accustomed to being able to drive everywhere and that just isn't sustainable.
- tastygreenapple 7y ago
  In America, Motorist == Community. It's bikers who are deviations from normal. We've built our cities for cars, now these bikers demand 'inclusion' on infrastructure they broadly don't pay for while flagrantly violating laws (ever seen a bicyclist come to a complete stop at a stop sign? Me neither).
  - ghostly_s 7y ago
    There's something almost cute about hauling out an argument this tired on a site for people who like to consider themselves on the cutting edge.
  - fader 7y ago
    That's a beautiful example of the entitlement in question. Cyclists pay taxes (did you think that gas taxes are high enough to pay for roads?), cause orders of magnitude less damage and wear to the road surfaces than automobiles, and don't use anywhere near the amount of valuable land as free storage for their vehicles when not in use. (The law violation works both ways too. Ever seen a motorist obey the speed limit? Me neither.)

Johnny555 7y ago

I don't think something like this would be that successful in the USA - it's not lack of parking that keeps most people from riding, it's lack of protected bike lanes (or other "safe" routes), and lack of cultural acceptance of biking. Plus, open, street parking isn't that safe in a lot of cities, if I could ask for some specific parking infrastructure, I'd ask for lockable bike lockers... though I'd rather see bike lanes and other infrastructure that helps me get to work safely.

dancek 7y ago
Is the problem with open parking stealing bikes, stealing parts or breaking bikes? The obvious safety strategy is to have a bike of lesser value with better locks than what's available nearby. But I also ponder what it would be like to own a really valuable bike. Do people steal handlebars or something, because that would make sense to me? Or is vandalism the bigger issue?
- lazyasciiart 7y ago
  People steal wheels, handlebars, bells, lights, bike racks and seats.
  - 8ytecoder 7y ago
    And break seatposts when they are angry they couldn’t steal anything. I had a not too fancy bike that uses Pinhead locks to secure every removable component. And a sturdy U lock. There were multiple attempts to steal various components including an angry thief breaking the seat post for no good reason - the saddle is worthless. Only finally to be stolen from a secure parking garage using an electric saw in full view of the CCTV camera. Police did nothing - not that I expected them to - enough other crimes for them to deal with. Insurance paid for it. I used it to buy a nicer bike that I only ride on weekends. I’m back to taking public transit and supplanting that with bike share and walking. One of the attempts included a bike next to me that was stolen from a really popular tourist area with a cafe seating opposite the rack. When I see the way bikes are parked in Amsterdam it makes me jealous. I want to move there just for that freedom. I enjoy biking. I have heard London is worse. Solutions are emerging. There’s a crowdfunded tracker that claims to solve the radio communication problem from inside a metal body. If true, it can track the bike with a tracker located inside the frame.

scythe 7y ago

I think the applicability of these types of observations may be limited. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_critique http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_critique People respond differently to a change they expect will be temporary vs a permanent change. You wouldn’t buy a bike to use a temporary lane, for example.

mrmanner 7y ago
My hometown tried giving away studded tires to 20-30 people in exchange for them sharing their experiences after commuting a whole winter. Maybe the same could work for temporary bike lanes - the city buys a hundred bikes, a hundred people loan them for free during the trial period. After the trial they can be sold or given away - the knowledge gained would be worth the cost either way.

GateCrasher 7y ago

Dutchman living in NYC here. Manhattan seems perfect for cycling: small distances, wide roads (lots of space for bike lanes), not very hilly. Sometimes it rains but definitely not more often then the Netherlands. That they choose to fill all the streets with big Suburbans bewilders me. Especially when the only alternative is the subway.

vonmoltke 7y ago
> That they choose to fill all the streets with big Suburbans Where do you even see Suburbans in Manhattan that don't belong to the NYPD, the MTA, or a black car service, let alone streets filled with them?

icelancer 7y ago

>> It's not entirely unfair to claim that they could have saved literally billions of dollars by just closing the viaduct for a month or two and observing what happens to traffic patterns. This is basically what should have happened. The fact that we rarely do experiments in local government is infinitely maddening to me.

laingc 7y ago

This doesn’t directly address your point, but a particular cycleway in my city (Wellington, NZ) has unquestionably put several small businesses out of business, and is well on its way to killing a previously thriving village centre. As a personal disclaimer, I lived in Europe for years, where my primary means of transport was a bicycle, and after careful consideration over many years I am firmly in favour of personal motor vehicles as a means of transport.

briga 7y ago
It's interesting that you say the cycleway unquestionably put small businesses out of business--why do you think that? In North America small businesses and town centres are generally under threat from big shopping centres and the way large highways that literally split communities in half. After seeing how smoothly dense cities in the Netherlands can function with advanced bicycle infrastructure I'm convinced that bikes should have an effect opposite to what you mention.
- laingc 7y ago
  Well that’s not what I think, it’s a matter of public record and is widely known here. The city council had to remove parking from in front of shops in order to put the cycleway in. No parks means no customers.

jameslars 7y ago

I for one purposely worked remotely for at least 75% of "viadoom" specifically because of all the warnings beforehand. Many of my coworkers did as well. That may have had something to do with everything working out? They warned us very much in advance to make plans to deal with it, and people seemed to. Another anecdata, the days I did commute in the bus was at least 50% fuller than "normal".

rory096 7y ago

Here in central Virginia our city traffic department has been running a number of bike/ped experiments with plastic bollards. The NIMBY backlash has been severe and at least one has been rolled back. 'Experiments' only work if they're testing something measurable. Otherwise they're just an undo button.