The point is this: "Assume that a coin is fair" ... "the coin gotta be loaded" In the example, Fat Tony is wrong because he contradicts the initial assumption.

The point is this: "Assume that a coin is fair" ... "the coin gotta be loaded" In the example, Fat Tony is wrong because he contradicts the initial assumption. However, the example is unrealistic because, initially, you don't know if the coin is fair or loaded. You just flip it, see 99 heads and then conclude, with probability very close to 1, that the coin is loaded. (You could still be wrong, but likely aren't). So in a realistic scenario, Fat Tony would be right, except that the scenario was intentionally set up to be unrealistic. (edit: typo)