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That's simply not relevant, nor true.* Modeling climate change is much more complex than the simple heuristic pattern matching of the human mind. You're talkin
by fromthestart 7y ago
That's simply not relevant, nor true.*
Modeling climate change is much more complex than the simple heuristic pattern matching of the human mind. You're talking about a huge, complex, and fundamentally chaotic system; the latter property precludes the usefulness of heuristic based predictions by a 4 year old (or a human of any age).
There's a reason we run massive numerical simulations on multi billion dollar HPCs.
*Depending of course on how you define processing power. Sure, in terms of raw flops it is estimated that human brains are indeed orders of magnitude more performant than supercomputers, but for the type of operations required to simulate something like climate, humans don't come anywhere close to the accuracy or precision of results you can obtain from a gridded 3D model fed into a purpose built simulation - without which you really can't answer any but the most basic of climate change questions.
- pazimzadeh 7y agoI'm not sure what the use is of comparing human processing to "the type of operations required to simulate something like climate" since predicting the weather is not something our computers are particularly good at. Why is a 3D model even necessary? Personal anecdote: my grandmother is capable of predicting rain 1-2 days ahead of time based on smell and just "a feeling." Granted, we probably don't remember all of the times that she was wrong.
- dlivingston 7y ago> Why is a 3D model even necessary? See [0]. PDEs can be solved discreetly in three dimensions on a three-dimensional grid (3D model, sort of). [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finite_volume_method https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finite_volume_method
- lutorm 7y agoThat doesn't really explain why you need a 3d model, though. If there was no important vertical process, you could get away with not resolving it. However, vertical heat transport is the entire game since the lower atmosphere is opaque to heat.
- dlivingston 7y agoI mean, it does though. The atmosphere is a 3D volume. Parameters that you might be interested in solving for, like advection and convection, are 3D processes. Consequently, you will need a 3D grid to solve the PDEs describing these parameters. EDIT: Ah, I see what you're saying. Yeah, I believe we fundamentally agree and our posts describe the same reasoning in two different ways.
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