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Male labor force participation has been steadily dropping since 1950. This was masked by the entry of women into the labor force between 1950 and 1990. But that

Male labor force participation has been steadily dropping since 1950. This was masked by the entry of women into the labor force between 1950 and 1990. But that process has been saturated for thirty years, whereas male participation keeps failing. That means that absent a major shift, the overall participation rate will continue to decline. The point is this is a half century trend, much too long to have anything to do with the business cycle. Yes labor force participation today is much lower than the expansions of yesteryear, but that doesn't tell us anything particular about this cycle. Almost assuredly 10-20 years from today labor force participation will be even lower than it is today, even at the peak of the next expansion. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300001 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300001 [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002

shoguning 7y ago
As far as I can tell, students are not counted as in the labor force. Therefore, as more people pursue advanced degrees and other training later in life, labor force participation drops. Is this a bad thing? Hard to say.
rayiner 7y ago
It’s better to look at prime age participation rate (25-54): https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-particip.... Among men it’s down from 91.8% to 88.5% since 1996.
- Balgair 7y ago
  That's a very interesting chart to look at! Thank you. One thing to look at is the projected rates in 2026. Non-hispanic white males are projected to be at 64.5 percent in the labor participation rate. This is in part due to the aging of the Baby boomers out of the work force. Still, that means that 1 of 3 non-hispanic white males will not be working and I don't see any reason for the trend to change. Also, the maximum outflows for Social Security are expected to be in ~2030 [0]. The presidential election cycles are 2020, 2024, 2028, and 2032. Lastly, the projected temperature of the Earth is expected to be ~0.3 degrees C higher in 2030 than it is today. For reference in terms of the possible effects of climate changes on human politics and government, CrashCourse recently did a good episode on the 17th Centrury Crisis where global temperatures fell ~0.5 degrees C [1,2]. TLDW: things were really bad. [0] https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v75n1/v75n1p1.html https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v75n1/v75n1p1.html [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmKHYpC_jVs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmKHYpC_jVs [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_General_Crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_General_Crisis
achillesheels 7y ago
This is a great data point which corroborates “The Organization Man” thesis, which happened to be written in the 50’s.

shoguning 7y ago

As far as I can tell, students are not counted as in the labor force. Therefore, as more people pursue advanced degrees and other training later in life, labor force participation drops. Is this a bad thing? Hard to say.

rayiner 7y ago

It’s better to look at prime age participation rate (25-54): https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-particip.... Among men it’s down from 91.8% to 88.5% since 1996.

Balgair 7y ago
That's a very interesting chart to look at! Thank you. One thing to look at is the projected rates in 2026. Non-hispanic white males are projected to be at 64.5 percent in the labor participation rate. This is in part due to the aging of the Baby boomers out of the work force. Still, that means that 1 of 3 non-hispanic white males will not be working and I don't see any reason for the trend to change. Also, the maximum outflows for Social Security are expected to be in ~2030 [0]. The presidential election cycles are 2020, 2024, 2028, and 2032. Lastly, the projected temperature of the Earth is expected to be ~0.3 degrees C higher in 2030 than it is today. For reference in terms of the possible effects of climate changes on human politics and government, CrashCourse recently did a good episode on the 17th Centrury Crisis where global temperatures fell ~0.5 degrees C [1,2]. TLDW: things were really bad. [0] https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v75n1/v75n1p1.html https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v75n1/v75n1p1.html [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmKHYpC_jVs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmKHYpC_jVs [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_General_Crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_General_Crisis

achillesheels 7y ago

This is a great data point which corroborates “The Organization Man” thesis, which happened to be written in the 50’s.