All the usual signs have been pointing toward a US recession for quite a while. (US recessions generally result in a global recession.) However, the bottom has

All the usual signs have been pointing toward a US recession for quite a while. (US recessions generally result in a global recession.) However, the bottom has yet to fall out. Nobody is sure why, but based on historical record, I wouldn't bet against the bottom not falling out. Lack of inflation seems to play a role. It allows the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates relatively low. However, it also means that interest rates may no longer be a good tool to regulate the economy in terms of smoothing booms and busts. That could be a problem after a crash because other stimulus tools are weakened due to the deficit. The next slump will be interesting...