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I think that GDP (and therefore inflation) don't actually measure what they used to. You can measure the number of cars being produced and houses built. It doe
by dalbasal 7y ago
I think that GDP (and therefore inflation) don't actually measure what they used to.
You can measure the number of cars being produced and houses built. It doesn't really matter how you quantity value the value of a 1999 vw golf relative to the 2019 model. Once iphones, Google, Spotify & such get thrown into the mix... GDP just doesn't tell us much about how economic output has changed over the last 20 years.
For the average person, I think we need to think in different terms. Housing, education, transport, consumables and manufactured goods & services.
Generally I feel the trend (in Europe, at least) has been to big gains in the latter categories and stagnation/negative growth in the former. Housing affordability has gotten worse. Transport has gotten more expensive. Education has gotten more expensive (both for students and in total) and is "worse" in terms of leading to predictable career/income outcomes... a key decision-driver of education choices.
Meanwhile consumables (food, washing detergent) have gotten cheaper. Manufactured goods (furniture/iphones) have gotten way better/cheaper. Services are a mixed bag (financial services dragging the whole category down).
These categories are generally not fungible. No reductions in the price of food or iPhones (not even free) will help make housing more affordable.
GDP... I'm not sure what it really measures anymore. It's become totally abstract. Meaningful within models but not indicative of anything about the world.
I think it had meaning 40 years ago, but the etherealization of the economy ate it.
All that said... Uniquely low GDP growth relative to high S&P returns. Picketty is probably going nuts.. in soft spoken French.
- ttoinou 7y agoI'm not sure what it really measures anymore What makes you think it has been at least once meaningful ?
- dalbasal 7y ago..the stuff it measured. Deltas in manufacturing volume. More steel = more GDP. More refrigerators = more GDP. There were always ambiguities. More lawyer fees = more GDP? Questionable. But... The portion of simple more=more economic outputs has really shrunk relative to the ambiguous ones where more<>more or price=0 or whatnot.
- bryanlarsen 7y agoThis problem is supposed to be solved by the "basket" structure of inflation calculation. The basket is a collection of spending by a typical family, and inflation is the measure of the cost increase of that basket. If iPhone goes down X and rent goes up X then inflation is zero. But the composition of the basket is not easy, varies and is prone to gaming.
- swebs 7y agoMaybe you want to look at Purchasing power parity (PPP) instead https://www.investopedia.com/updates/purchasing-power-parity-ppp/ https://www.investopedia.com/updates/purchasing-power-parity...