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> now that globalism is dead Its very much alive. Except in case of actual WW3 (in which case all bets are off), globalism and the integration of the global ec

by pm90 7y ago

> now that globalism is dead Its very much alive. Except in case of actual WW3 (in which case all bets are off), globalism and the integration of the global economy is proceeding at an unprecedented pace. There is a reason why tariffs are only temporary and there is no legislation to enshrine them into law. The biggest economic winners in the past 70 years or so have been economies which have integrated their supply chains with the global one in some way or the other. Its the golden goose that keeps giving (although what the countries end up doing with that wealth, whether they distribute it well, is another question). The goal of the AU is to build better efficiencies within the African continent to the benefit of African economies. This may e.g. make African manufactured goods more competitive than the ones imported from abroad. It allows for easier building of supply chains within the continent itself. As the article points out though, the main roadblocks are > Poor roads and railway lines, violence-hit areas, strict border controls and rampant corruption are some of the obstacles to an effective continental free-trade zone. These are all very serious (but not insurmountable) problems. The best outcome I can imagine is that as the AU supply chains are built and bring economic efficiencies, they can tap into the global supply chain to really supercharge them, make other AU countries realize free trade makes economic sense and encourage it. But I am being wayy too optimistic, seeing the history of the continent... Consider for e.g. the ancient silk roads. The owners of the territory over which the trade route ran realized its economic importance and invested a lot in making it a conflict-free and protected zone.

jorblumesea 7y ago
> These are all very serious (but not insurmountable) problems. Africa faces far bigger challenges than simply infrastructure and corruption. 1) There's massive cultural, ethnic, and economic diversity. The continent spans countries which are middle income to the lowest in the world. Unity and cohesiveness are difficult regionally, less across the entire continent. Looking at Europe's issues as a proxy, it's hard to see anyone agreeing on much. 2) Manufacturing, traditionally the ladder that countries climb to prosperity is being automated at an unprecedented rate. It's uncertain how Africa will pull itself up without this.
- wrong_variable 7y ago
  > There's massive cultural, ethnic, and economic diversity. The continent spans countries which are middle income to the lowest in the world. Unity and cohesiveness are difficult regionally, less across the entire continent. You could replace Africa with India / EU / China / US the same properties exist. Who created the borders of African countries ? Most African if asked the question. "Are you African ?" would answer yes. So please give African some credit ? > Manufacturing, traditionally the ladder that countries climb to prosperity is being automated at an unprecedented rate. Hold your smartphone right there. Most of this narrative is driven by media in the West to placate their population, so that they dont form labour union. Travel anywhere in the world with the labour part of the supply chain. Most manufacturing still requires 100s of million of workers. You just cant see it in the West due to ships bringing it to them. Humans are cheap - much more than robots. You can keep humans alive in the developing world for 100 dollars / months (its not starving wage for them ). For 100 dollars / month you are getting the most advanced robot any company can build. Total factor productivity has been declining for a while, regardless of how much automation you bring to the table you cannot solve for human entropy ( death catches up with everyone eventually, even the most advanced human roboticist dies eventually or has to retire ).
  - pinkfoot 7y ago
    Nope - just last week the president of South Africa was talking at a conference in Johannesburg dedicated to "Industry 4.0". A massive existing concern is job-losses due to automation. In Africa, right now.
    - wrong_variable 7y ago
      You need to be more specific about "automation". My kids still need a lot of manual human labor to be educated ( services ). You still need a lot of manual labor to create roads, bridges and apartments. People were talking about flying cars 50 years ago, all those flying car investors must be billionares ? On the ground things haven't progressed much, regardless of how much you would like to believe it. Cape Town literally ran out of water ! If you mean automation for producing cheap plastic toys for Westerns ? If I was African why should I care about being exploited for white skinned consumers ? China pulled a fast one, with selling cheap plastic goods to move up the value chain, steal technology and create Huawei. African countries should do the same. If the US/EU imposes tariffs due to to currency devaluation. Africans should band together and only sell their natural resources in a new currency. Lets see how long the EU/US lasts when the most resource rich continent pulls a King Faisal.

by pm90 7y ago

jorblumesea 7y ago

> These are all very serious (but not insurmountable) problems. Africa faces far bigger challenges than simply infrastructure and corruption. 1) There's massive cultural, ethnic, and economic diversity. The continent spans countries which are middle income to the lowest in the world. Unity and cohesiveness are difficult regionally, less across the entire continent. Looking at Europe's issues as a proxy, it's hard to see anyone agreeing on much. 2) Manufacturing, traditionally the ladder that countries climb to prosperity is being automated at an unprecedented rate. It's uncertain how Africa will pull itself up without this.

wrong_variable 7y ago
> There's massive cultural, ethnic, and economic diversity. The continent spans countries which are middle income to the lowest in the world. Unity and cohesiveness are difficult regionally, less across the entire continent. You could replace Africa with India / EU / China / US the same properties exist. Who created the borders of African countries ? Most African if asked the question. "Are you African ?" would answer yes. So please give African some credit ? > Manufacturing, traditionally the ladder that countries climb to prosperity is being automated at an unprecedented rate. Hold your smartphone right there. Most of this narrative is driven by media in the West to placate their population, so that they dont form labour union. Travel anywhere in the world with the labour part of the supply chain. Most manufacturing still requires 100s of million of workers. You just cant see it in the West due to ships bringing it to them. Humans are cheap - much more than robots. You can keep humans alive in the developing world for 100 dollars / months (its not starving wage for them ). For 100 dollars / month you are getting the most advanced robot any company can build. Total factor productivity has been declining for a while, regardless of how much automation you bring to the table you cannot solve for human entropy ( death catches up with everyone eventually, even the most advanced human roboticist dies eventually or has to retire ).
- pinkfoot 7y ago
  Nope - just last week the president of South Africa was talking at a conference in Johannesburg dedicated to "Industry 4.0". A massive existing concern is job-losses due to automation. In Africa, right now.
  - wrong_variable 7y ago
    You need to be more specific about "automation". My kids still need a lot of manual human labor to be educated ( services ). You still need a lot of manual labor to create roads, bridges and apartments. People were talking about flying cars 50 years ago, all those flying car investors must be billionares ? On the ground things haven't progressed much, regardless of how much you would like to believe it. Cape Town literally ran out of water ! If you mean automation for producing cheap plastic toys for Westerns ? If I was African why should I care about being exploited for white skinned consumers ? China pulled a fast one, with selling cheap plastic goods to move up the value chain, steal technology and create Huawei. African countries should do the same. If the US/EU imposes tariffs due to to currency devaluation. Africans should band together and only sell their natural resources in a new currency. Lets see how long the EU/US lasts when the most resource rich continent pulls a King Faisal.