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The problem is, most airlines who ordered or are considering to order the 737 MAX have not much choice. The only real competitor is Airbus. But not only does Ai

by _ph_ 7y ago

The problem is, most airlines who ordered or are considering to order the 737 MAX have not much choice. The only real competitor is Airbus. But not only does Airbus alreay have filled order books, so cannot deliver any additional orders in a reasonable time frame, but also this would move the market into a near-monopoly, something that airlines are trying to avoid strongly, as that would remove their negotiation powers with the manufacturer. This shows, that a duopoly can be as bad as a monopoly and can degenerate into one quickly. Consequently, it should be avoided as much as possible. Merging Boeing with McDonnell Douglas was a big mistake by these events. As was, not to develop a successor to the 737 even long before the MAX development started. After 40 years, tweaking a very successfull design isn't enough any more, there should be a proper successor. Unless some more large flaws are discovered, the 737 MAX won't be cancelled and it will be bought. The market is trapped. Airlines, who operate on 737 only will have to change their operations soon, as the MAX can be only a gap-filler now. But on short notice there is no other possible replacement available. Boeing will certainly start a replacment design soon, but that won't arrive till the late 20ies. This might of course be the opening for new aircraft companies to enter the market, e.g. Chineese companies or Japanese.

ethbro 7y ago
In the back and forth, one thing I haven't heard much on is what could have been done to result in a clean-sheet design. The timeline looks like Boeing was publicly leaning towards a clean sheet redesign until the end of 2011. Then, seemingly out of the blue, American made this announcement on 7/20/2011. "As part of the Boeing agreement, American will take delivery of 100 aircraft from Boeing's current 737NG family starting in 2013, including three 737-800 options that had been exercised as of July 1, 2011. American also intends to order 100 of Boeing's expected new evolution of the 737NG, with a new engine that would offer even more significant fuel-efficiency gains over today's models. American is pleased to be the first airline to commit to Boeing's new 737 family offering, which is expected to provide a new level of economic efficiency and operational performance, pending final confirmation of the program by Boeing. This airplane would be powered by CFM International's LEAP-X engine." http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2011/AMR-Corporation-Announces-Largest-Aircraft-Order-In-History-With-Boeing-And-Airbus-07202011/default.aspx http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2011/AMR-Corporation-An... Afterwards, Boeing fairly quickly announces they'll be offering an up-engined 737 NG design. Presumably the issues were noted at some point in the development process (~2013?). At that point... the FAA should have been the one pointing out development issues would cause serious regulatory problems? Afaik, they don't have the funding or personnel for that level of design integration. And like agile, the farther down the road after that decision we get, the more money is at risk and the more constrained options are. So the answer here seems like deeper and earlier regulator involvement in the development phase? I'm honestly having difficulty coming up with a plausible sequence of events that would have resulted in a different outcome. When Airbus released the A320neo mid-development cycle for Boeing, the die seemed cast.
- _ph_ 7y ago
  Yes, I agree. What I meant was, considering that the 737 was designed in the 60ies, they should have a successor development started much much earlier (like 2000). Even with the predecessor of the MAX they were running into ground clearing issues leading to its asymmetric engine housings.
filereaper 7y ago
>This might of course be the opening for new aircraft companies to enter the market, e.g. Chineese companies or Japanese. Mitsubishi is making a few moves [1], it recently acquired CRJ from Bombardier. [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Company-in-focus/Mitsubishi-hopes-global-ambitions-will-fly-with-revamped-jet https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Company-in-focus/Mitsubishi...
dlgeek 7y ago
There was that Bombardier C-Series that was competing with the low end of the 737 market, but Boeing fought so hard against it with the USITC that they were forced to basically hand it off to Airbus.

by _ph_ 7y ago

ethbro 7y ago

In the back and forth, one thing I haven't heard much on is what could have been done to result in a clean-sheet design. The timeline looks like Boeing was publicly leaning towards a clean sheet redesign until the end of 2011. Then, seemingly out of the blue, American made this announcement on 7/20/2011. "As part of the Boeing agreement, American will take delivery of 100 aircraft from Boeing's current 737NG family starting in 2013, including three 737-800 options that had been exercised as of July 1, 2011. American also intends to order 100 of Boeing's expected new evolution of the 737NG, with a new engine that would offer even more significant fuel-efficiency gains over today's models. American is pleased to be the first airline to commit to Boeing's new 737 family offering, which is expected to provide a new level of economic efficiency and operational performance, pending final confirmation of the program by Boeing. This airplane would be powered by CFM International's LEAP-X engine." http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2011/AMR-Corporation-Announces-Largest-Aircraft-Order-In-History-With-Boeing-And-Airbus-07202011/default.aspx http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2011/AMR-Corporation-An... Afterwards, Boeing fairly quickly announces they'll be offering an up-engined 737 NG design. Presumably the issues were noted at some point in the development process (~2013?). At that point... the FAA should have been the one pointing out development issues would cause serious regulatory problems? Afaik, they don't have the funding or personnel for that level of design integration. And like agile, the farther down the road after that decision we get, the more money is at risk and the more constrained options are. So the answer here seems like deeper and earlier regulator involvement in the development phase? I'm honestly having difficulty coming up with a plausible sequence of events that would have resulted in a different outcome. When Airbus released the A320neo mid-development cycle for Boeing, the die seemed cast.

_ph_ 7y ago
Yes, I agree. What I meant was, considering that the 737 was designed in the 60ies, they should have a successor development started much much earlier (like 2000). Even with the predecessor of the MAX they were running into ground clearing issues leading to its asymmetric engine housings.

filereaper 7y ago

>This might of course be the opening for new aircraft companies to enter the market, e.g. Chineese companies or Japanese. Mitsubishi is making a few moves [1], it recently acquired CRJ from Bombardier. [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Company-in-focus/Mitsubishi-hopes-global-ambitions-will-fly-with-revamped-jet https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Company-in-focus/Mitsubishi...

dlgeek 7y ago

There was that Bombardier C-Series that was competing with the low end of the 737 market, but Boeing fought so hard against it with the USITC that they were forced to basically hand it off to Airbus.