3 ms·
What do you conclude from this? That the economy is booming? That a recession or financial crisis is unlikely? What does an unemployment rate of 3.7% mean when
by panarky 7y ago
What do you conclude from this? That the economy is booming? That a recession or financial crisis is unlikely?
What does an unemployment rate of 3.7% mean when the labor force participation rate fell off a cliff in 2009 and has never recovered?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
What does it mean when long-term government debt in Europe and Japan has a negative yield, or short-term debt in the US yields more than long-term debt, or defaults on mortgages and consumer loans are increasing?
If the economy is booming, what does it mean when there's incredible pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates that are already historically low?
If the economy is healthy, what does it mean when the government runs record-setting deficits and piles up more trillions in unpayable debt?
Shouldn't we pay off debt during the boom, so we have something left in the tank for the bust?
Defaults on mortgages and consumer loans are increasing. We see trade war, actual war, mass migration, splintering nations, evaporating civil society, ineffective institutions and levels of inequality not seen in generations.
These are signs of deep dysfunction with no obvious solutions. Governments, banks and corporations have few tools to deal with crisis when it happens.
What exactly does a 3.7% unemployment rate mean in this context?
- chrisco255 7y agoLabor force participation rate is steady at ~63%, which is only 4 points lower than all time highs and significantly higher than any time in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, and most of the 80s. With demographic trends, that's not to be unexpected. Default rates on loans have been falling so not sure where you're getting your data: https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/01/mortgage-delinquency-rates-for-all-loan-types-continue-to-fall.aspx https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/01/mortgage-delinquency-... I am concerned about the national debt but expanding the economy is one of the best ways to deal with it. The trade war with China is a risk factor but not clear whether it's good or bad at this point. There are always signs of dysfunction if you look for it. In this context, 3.7% unemployment and 3+% wage growth is good news for U.S. economy.