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Some people can predict a crisis, they make films about these people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_S

Some people can predict a crisis, they make films about these people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film) But yes, a significantly large number of people cannot predict a crisis, it is catch-22.

dahfizz 7y ago
When so many people make so many predictions, some are bound to come true from raw chance. That does not give the lucky person any actual predictive powers. Michael Lewis himself has made bad predictions, as have thousands of others.
lokedhs 7y ago
After every large financial event you are going to find some person who predicted it. Since there is a nearly unlimited number of people making contradictory predictions at all times, you're also going to find someone making a correct prediction. In fact, if be more surprised if you didn't. I think you'll have a hard time finding someone who made more than one correct prediction (and none, or at least very few incorrect ones). It's easy to be correct if you just throw everything at the wall as see what sticks.
- lightgreen 7y ago
  > After every large financial event you are going to find some person who predicted it. Yes, but not so many made a fortune from it, and even fewer who gave a proper explanation of why the crisis is going to happen and weren't just lucky. These guys from "The Big Short" movie were explicitly betting against CDO, not against SNP500 as other lucky folks who also made a lot of money. > I think you'll have a hard time finding someone who made more than one correct prediction (and none, or at least very few incorrect ones). Predicting one of 5 crisis during lifetime (with real money) and simply not losing money during other 4 crisis is a huge success for predictor I think. > It's easy to be correct if you just throw everything at the wall as see what sticks. Only those predictors who throw real money at the wall count, not these endless newspaper analysts. TL;DR I don't believe those folks from the movie were just lucky.

dahfizz 7y ago

When so many people make so many predictions, some are bound to come true from raw chance. That does not give the lucky person any actual predictive powers. Michael Lewis himself has made bad predictions, as have thousands of others.

lokedhs 7y ago

After every large financial event you are going to find some person who predicted it. Since there is a nearly unlimited number of people making contradictory predictions at all times, you're also going to find someone making a correct prediction. In fact, if be more surprised if you didn't. I think you'll have a hard time finding someone who made more than one correct prediction (and none, or at least very few incorrect ones). It's easy to be correct if you just throw everything at the wall as see what sticks.

lightgreen 7y ago
> After every large financial event you are going to find some person who predicted it. Yes, but not so many made a fortune from it, and even fewer who gave a proper explanation of why the crisis is going to happen and weren't just lucky. These guys from "The Big Short" movie were explicitly betting against CDO, not against SNP500 as other lucky folks who also made a lot of money. > I think you'll have a hard time finding someone who made more than one correct prediction (and none, or at least very few incorrect ones). Predicting one of 5 crisis during lifetime (with real money) and simply not losing money during other 4 crisis is a huge success for predictor I think. > It's easy to be correct if you just throw everything at the wall as see what sticks. Only those predictors who throw real money at the wall count, not these endless newspaper analysts. TL;DR I don't believe those folks from the movie were just lucky.