7 ms·

You hit the nail on the head. If you simply play the pass-line and free-odds on craps, the house edge is extremely small. And yet, most people lose far more tha

by noego 7y ago

You hit the nail on the head. If you simply play the pass-line and free-odds on craps, the house edge is extremely small. And yet, most people lose far more than predicted by the odds. The problem is exactly as you stated - people don't have a defined exit-strategy, and their implicit exit-strategy is to keep playing till they lose everything. Which is guaranteed to happen 100% of the time even if the house-edge was 0. An approach that I've found to be useful, and have personally used in Vegas: - Always start off each session with a fixed $X in chips, even if you're flush from previous winnings - If at any point during the session, you get to $2X or $0 in chips, end the session immediately and cash out everything. Even if you're on a "hot streak" - Bet large enough that you will get to $2X or $0 in a short/moderate period of time. The longer your session drags on, the lower the likelihood of getting to $2X - Once a session has ended, have a cooling off period. Eg, no further gambling until after the next show/meal If done right, gambling can actually be extremely cheap. With a house-edge of 0.5%, you can gamble $10,000 and only lose $50 on average. This makes it far cheaper (and more exciting) than eating out or going to shows. The usual disclaimers still apply: only gamble what you can accept losing, no more

wincy 7y ago
You can bet Don’t Pass and have everyone glower at you, but have even better odds.
- arbitrage 7y ago
  People also glower and complain when you play perfect strategy at blackjack ... most people are utter shit at odds and statistics in a distracting environment like a casino.
  - planteen 7y ago
    My strategy used to only play perfect blackjack strategy at the very rare $5 or more typically $10 table. But it's not even fun when people get pissy about when they think you "messed up the cards." I've tried to explain and realized not even worth your breath.
bredren 7y ago
In my 20s I’d just drop a $20 into a slot machine per day and play max bet, usually $3. If anything won it was a lot more than $20 and I felt like a winner. My rule was to spend the winnings immediately, and I still have a dkny vest I bought in MGM grand with my “winnings.” I think gambling can be fun if you limit yourself and don’t take it seriously. Trouble is Vegas is good at making you feel special. And they serve free booze.
hef19898 7y ago
I don't usually gamble, when I do it is roulette. Easy rules ans I only play the probabilities. I also the approach you mentioned above, never more than say 20 bucks with maybe another 10 as hard reserve. Quit when I'm ahead by a factor of, again like you, roughly 2x. And playing smaller amounts, meaning not everything at once but reasonably high, provides enough entertainment gambling for at least an hour. So in the end, even if everything is lost, I had my fun. And let's be honest, 20 bucks for on hour of fun isn't that bad a deal. Fun fact: In total I'm like 100 bucks on top right now, paid for a pair of Nike sneakers for my son back the day!
- tasuki 7y ago
  > enough entertainment gambling for at least an hour. So in the end, even if everything is lost, I had my fun. I wonder what you find entertaining/fun about this. I've been to casinos a couple of times. The only parts I found entertaining were observing people and the free drinks.
  - Kurtz79 7y ago
    "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Paul Newman - The Color of Money
  - hef19898 7y ago
    Once every two years it's kind of fun. And playing the odds, well sure probabilities are low, buts that's what is to understand about it. By no means as complex as, say, blackjack. And I like to have at least a slight idea of what I'm getting into. Blackjack, no chance. Roulette, at least I know the odds up front whatever they may be. And yes, the other people are the sometimes the funniest part. And the saddest. Seeing people using what is my month salary in around two hours... On the other hand playing only one or two bucks per game and others reaction is fun.
- lotsofpulp 7y ago
  Roulette has the worst odds, so what do you mean by “playing the probabilities?” Roulette’s big draw is that it’s simple, high suspense, and visceral due to being able to see the ball bounce around Personally, my gambling strategy is simple. Whatever amount I’m gambling is considered spent in exchange for the “fun” I get. I expect to walk away with zero. If I’m winning I like to go double or nothing right before I leave on black at roulette, just for the hell of it.
dtech 7y ago
I rarely gamble, but when I do I like the following strategy: Start with X. Whenever you get above X, skim the surplus and store separately. You've now capped your losses at X (aka the price of the game night) and feel like you're winning when you can skim some money off your pool.
- phasetransition 7y ago
  One of my undergraduate roommates was stationed at Nellis AFB for an extended time. He and his wife learned to count cards and played in the same manner as the MIT team. They took only their winnings and used it to buy entertainment in the casinos where they gambled, which went a long way with the military discounts. I want to say their original X was $500 or so, and it funded several years of local entertainment.
arisAlexis 7y ago
Can you explain what you feel playing a game that will always make you lose money no matter the strategies and anything else? Very curious
- quakenul 7y ago
  Any game/activity that you have to join a club and pay a membership for (i.e. Golf, Tennis) and also play professionally would qualify, so a subset of entertainment, engagement, excitement, relaxation, thrill.
- yomly 7y ago
  Luck is lumpy. Weirdly I seem to do quite well in the casino and often have evening where I leave the casino 2-3X ahead of where I started. My luck at football betting is terrible, I'm even worse at horses. When you're up it's quite the thrill. You weather the downs as a cost associated with the particular vice. I enjoy "emotionally hedging" sports events - if I want X to win I bet on Y Do you play any other things (sports or games)? Do you not ever go for low percentage / high risk actions if only for the pleasure of occasionally see them come good? Think bicycle kick in football, haymaker in boxing, high stakes play in poker, 1-frame combos in Street Fighter, technically difficult riffs in a musical jam. I feel your line of questioning locks money and all its uses to rationality. Money can be an instrument for pleasure and for many, risk-seeking is a pleasurable activity.
  - arisAlexis 7y ago
    Poker and sports betting have a huge difference. It is not 100% certain you will lose long term. Thus can be pleasurable to me. Certain loss simply can't be and that's why I am curious
    - yomly 7y ago
      Fair enough, but gambling can be social and other times it can be a "cheap" thrill
    - bitcoinbutter 7y ago
55555 7y ago
There's even been a study where (IIRC) they gave people $20 for free, and they could bet on coin tosses. There was no house edge and the rules were set up so that with a basic understanding of probability and bet sizing they'd be able to cash out free money. IIRC 33% went bust.
- listenallyall 7y ago
  This isn't a surprise, nor is it evidence of individual greed or stupidity. What's wrong with betting when there is no house edge? In which case, some people are inevitably going to wrongly pick heads or tails and thus lose their $20. Had the OP actually properly described how to build a useful Monte Carlo simulation, you could find your article, get the actual rules, run a simulation and check whether 33% was in line with expectations.
Buttons840 7y ago
The first two paragraphs of this story from "Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!" illustrate your point well: > The first time I was in Las Vegas I sat down and figured out the odds for everything, and I discovered that the odds for the crap table were something like .493. If I bet a dollar, it would only cost me 1.4 cents. So I thought to myself, "Why am I so reluctant to bet? It hardly costs anything!" So I started betting, and right away I lost five dollars in succession--one, two, three, four, five. I was supposed to be out only seven cents; instead, I was five dollars behind! I've never gambled since then (with my own money, that is). I'm very lucky that I started off losing. One time I was eating lunch with one of the show girls. It was a quiet time in the afternoon; there was not the usual big bustle, and she said, "See that man over there, walking across the lawn? That's Nick the Greek. He's a professional gambler." Now I knew damn well what all the odds were in Las Vegas, so I said, "How can he be a professional gambler?" "I'll call him over." Nick came over and she introduced us. "Marilyn tells me that you're a professional gambler." "That's correct." "Well, I'd like to know how it's possible to make your living gambling, because at the table, the odds are .493." "You're right," he said, "and I'll explain it to you. I don't bet on the table, or things like that. I only bet when the odds are in my favor." "Huh? When are the odds ever in your favor?" I asked incredulously. "It's really quite easy," he said. "I'm standing around a table, when some guy says, 'It's comin' out nine! It's gotta be a nine!' The guy's excited; he thinks it's going to be a nine, and he wants to bet. Now I know the odds for all the numbers inside out, so I say to him, 'I'll bet you four to three it's not a nine,' and I win in the long run. I don't bet on the table; instead, I bet with people around the table who have prejudices--superstitious ideas about lucky numbers." Nick continued: "Now that I've got a reputation, it's even easier, because people will bet with me even when they know the odds aren't very good, just to have the chance of telling the story, if they win, of how they beat Nick the Greek. So I really do make a living gambling, and it's wonderful!" So Nick the Greek was really an educated character. He was a very nice and engaging man. I thanked him for the explanation; now I understood it. I have to understand the world, you see.

by noego 7y ago

wincy 7y ago

You can bet Don’t Pass and have everyone glower at you, but have even better odds.

arbitrage 7y ago
People also glower and complain when you play perfect strategy at blackjack ... most people are utter shit at odds and statistics in a distracting environment like a casino.
- planteen 7y ago
  My strategy used to only play perfect blackjack strategy at the very rare $5 or more typically $10 table. But it's not even fun when people get pissy about when they think you "messed up the cards." I've tried to explain and realized not even worth your breath.

bredren 7y ago

In my 20s I’d just drop a $20 into a slot machine per day and play max bet, usually $3. If anything won it was a lot more than $20 and I felt like a winner. My rule was to spend the winnings immediately, and I still have a dkny vest I bought in MGM grand with my “winnings.” I think gambling can be fun if you limit yourself and don’t take it seriously. Trouble is Vegas is good at making you feel special. And they serve free booze.

hef19898 7y ago

I don't usually gamble, when I do it is roulette. Easy rules ans I only play the probabilities. I also the approach you mentioned above, never more than say 20 bucks with maybe another 10 as hard reserve. Quit when I'm ahead by a factor of, again like you, roughly 2x. And playing smaller amounts, meaning not everything at once but reasonably high, provides enough entertainment gambling for at least an hour. So in the end, even if everything is lost, I had my fun. And let's be honest, 20 bucks for on hour of fun isn't that bad a deal. Fun fact: In total I'm like 100 bucks on top right now, paid for a pair of Nike sneakers for my son back the day!

tasuki 7y ago
> enough entertainment gambling for at least an hour. So in the end, even if everything is lost, I had my fun. I wonder what you find entertaining/fun about this. I've been to casinos a couple of times. The only parts I found entertaining were observing people and the free drinks.
- Kurtz79 7y ago
  "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Paul Newman - The Color of Money
- hef19898 7y ago
  Once every two years it's kind of fun. And playing the odds, well sure probabilities are low, buts that's what is to understand about it. By no means as complex as, say, blackjack. And I like to have at least a slight idea of what I'm getting into. Blackjack, no chance. Roulette, at least I know the odds up front whatever they may be. And yes, the other people are the sometimes the funniest part. And the saddest. Seeing people using what is my month salary in around two hours... On the other hand playing only one or two bucks per game and others reaction is fun.
lotsofpulp 7y ago
Roulette has the worst odds, so what do you mean by “playing the probabilities?” Roulette’s big draw is that it’s simple, high suspense, and visceral due to being able to see the ball bounce around Personally, my gambling strategy is simple. Whatever amount I’m gambling is considered spent in exchange for the “fun” I get. I expect to walk away with zero. If I’m winning I like to go double or nothing right before I leave on black at roulette, just for the hell of it.

dtech 7y ago

I rarely gamble, but when I do I like the following strategy: Start with X. Whenever you get above X, skim the surplus and store separately. You've now capped your losses at X (aka the price of the game night) and feel like you're winning when you can skim some money off your pool.

phasetransition 7y ago
One of my undergraduate roommates was stationed at Nellis AFB for an extended time. He and his wife learned to count cards and played in the same manner as the MIT team. They took only their winnings and used it to buy entertainment in the casinos where they gambled, which went a long way with the military discounts. I want to say their original X was $500 or so, and it funded several years of local entertainment.

arisAlexis 7y ago

Can you explain what you feel playing a game that will always make you lose money no matter the strategies and anything else? Very curious

quakenul 7y ago
Any game/activity that you have to join a club and pay a membership for (i.e. Golf, Tennis) and also play professionally would qualify, so a subset of entertainment, engagement, excitement, relaxation, thrill.
yomly 7y ago
Luck is lumpy. Weirdly I seem to do quite well in the casino and often have evening where I leave the casino 2-3X ahead of where I started. My luck at football betting is terrible, I'm even worse at horses. When you're up it's quite the thrill. You weather the downs as a cost associated with the particular vice. I enjoy "emotionally hedging" sports events - if I want X to win I bet on Y Do you play any other things (sports or games)? Do you not ever go for low percentage / high risk actions if only for the pleasure of occasionally see them come good? Think bicycle kick in football, haymaker in boxing, high stakes play in poker, 1-frame combos in Street Fighter, technically difficult riffs in a musical jam. I feel your line of questioning locks money and all its uses to rationality. Money can be an instrument for pleasure and for many, risk-seeking is a pleasurable activity.
- arisAlexis 7y ago
  Poker and sports betting have a huge difference. It is not 100% certain you will lose long term. Thus can be pleasurable to me. Certain loss simply can't be and that's why I am curious
  - yomly 7y ago
    Fair enough, but gambling can be social and other times it can be a "cheap" thrill
  - bitcoinbutter 7y ago

55555 7y ago

There's even been a study where (IIRC) they gave people $20 for free, and they could bet on coin tosses. There was no house edge and the rules were set up so that with a basic understanding of probability and bet sizing they'd be able to cash out free money. IIRC 33% went bust.

listenallyall 7y ago
This isn't a surprise, nor is it evidence of individual greed or stupidity. What's wrong with betting when there is no house edge? In which case, some people are inevitably going to wrongly pick heads or tails and thus lose their $20. Had the OP actually properly described how to build a useful Monte Carlo simulation, you could find your article, get the actual rules, run a simulation and check whether 33% was in line with expectations.

Buttons840 7y ago

The first two paragraphs of this story from "Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!" illustrate your point well: > The first time I was in Las Vegas I sat down and figured out the odds for everything, and I discovered that the odds for the crap table were something like .493. If I bet a dollar, it would only cost me 1.4 cents. So I thought to myself, "Why am I so reluctant to bet? It hardly costs anything!" So I started betting, and right away I lost five dollars in succession--one, two, three, four, five. I was supposed to be out only seven cents; instead, I was five dollars behind! I've never gambled since then (with my own money, that is). I'm very lucky that I started off losing. One time I was eating lunch with one of the show girls. It was a quiet time in the afternoon; there was not the usual big bustle, and she said, "See that man over there, walking across the lawn? That's Nick the Greek. He's a professional gambler." Now I knew damn well what all the odds were in Las Vegas, so I said, "How can he be a professional gambler?" "I'll call him over." Nick came over and she introduced us. "Marilyn tells me that you're a professional gambler." "That's correct." "Well, I'd like to know how it's possible to make your living gambling, because at the table, the odds are .493." "You're right," he said, "and I'll explain it to you. I don't bet on the table, or things like that. I only bet when the odds are in my favor." "Huh? When are the odds ever in your favor?" I asked incredulously. "It's really quite easy," he said. "I'm standing around a table, when some guy says, 'It's comin' out nine! It's gotta be a nine!' The guy's excited; he thinks it's going to be a nine, and he wants to bet. Now I know the odds for all the numbers inside out, so I say to him, 'I'll bet you four to three it's not a nine,' and I win in the long run. I don't bet on the table; instead, I bet with people around the table who have prejudices--superstitious ideas about lucky numbers." Nick continued: "Now that I've got a reputation, it's even easier, because people will bet with me even when they know the odds aren't very good, just to have the chance of telling the story, if they win, of how they beat Nick the Greek. So I really do make a living gambling, and it's wonderful!" So Nick the Greek was really an educated character. He was a very nice and engaging man. I thanked him for the explanation; now I understood it. I have to understand the world, you see.