2 ms·
Can you calculate the chance of the cluster size being >5 when we can cluster events within a one-week period and the rate of events is one every 2 months (deba
by emerongi 7y ago
Can you calculate the chance of the cluster size being >5 when we can cluster events within a one-week period and the rate of events is one every 2 months (debatable, but feels right to me)?
I think that would just end this discussion. I don't know how to calculate that, but my intuition says the resulting chance is low.
- appleiigs 7y agoI don't know how to do the math, but my python simulation says zero. import random service_providers = 20 servers_threshold = 5 up_time_threshold = 0.999**7 # prob down in week years = 20 occurrences = 0 # run sim 10,000 times for i in range(0, 10000): servers_down = False # simulate weeks in 20 years for j in range(1, 52*years): how_many_down_this_week = 0 # run up times for service providers for s in range(0, service_providers): up_time = random.random() if up_time > up_time_threshold: how_many_down_this_week += 1 # did they go down? if how_many_down_this_week > servers_threshold: servers_down = True if servers_down == True: occurrences += 1 print(occurrences)
- joshuamorton 7y agoGiven those parameters, you'd expect to see something every 100,000 years or so. (poisson distribution, lambda=1/8, k=5, the result is like 7e-7).