I think you're half-right, but we're entering an unprecedented age where global climate change really mixes up the desirability of certain geographical features

I think you're half-right, but we're entering an unprecedented age where global climate change really mixes up the desirability of certain geographical features. I strongly suspect this is why a lot of immigration phobias are being whipped up (mass climate migrants will mix things up IMMENSELY), and where at least some of the next large wars will come from. Lakes and rivers will dry out, floodplains will flood, and previous choice living locations will become some of the worst around. Stress this enough, and war can indeed break out.