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It amazes me how many otherwise intelligent people believe in the bullshit hype of fully-self-driving cars. In reality, a car that can drive you from New York t

It amazes me how many otherwise intelligent people believe in the bullshit hype of fully-self-driving cars. In reality, a car that can drive you from New York to Boston with zero human intervention as safely as an average human driver is probably several decades away at least.

wrycoder 7y ago
On Route 66, maybe, but IMO it's coming to the interstate much sooner.
- hjfihrbrrhrb 7y ago
  Could be, but then it would just be a glorified train system. People generally want to be driven from some building far from the interstate to some other building far from the interstate, not from onramp to exit. I doubt that self-driving car technology is even close to being interstate-ready, though.
- benatkin 7y ago
  I think NYC to Boston has traffic and bad drivers and that's why GP used it as an example of something today's tech is far from being ready for. I think it will take a lot of work but that it will happen rapidly.
- aidenn0 7y ago
  Did you mean Route 1? Route 66 isn't an option for NY to Boston...
whymauri 7y ago
The amount of hype for self-driving cars, even if they come several decades from now, is not 'bullshit.' Just because things don't happen immediately doesn't make them 'bullshit hype.'
- hjfihrbrrhrb 7y ago
  Yeah, but the hype is that they are right around the corner.
  - slips 7y ago
    According to who?
    - MegaButts 7y ago
      Waymo committed and failed to launch a public driverless taxi service in 2018. Cruise is still publicly committing to 2019 although it's widely believed they will miss that mark. Zoox says 2020. Argo is aiming for 2021. Not to mention whatever timeline Musk tweets for Tesla's constantly moving target. There are more, so there is a lot of hype. Otherwise how would these companies be raising billions of dollars on unproven technology?
      - Erlich_Bachman 7y ago
        So what they should just stop and not develop it? What is your point?
        MegaButts 7y ago
        I was just answering the question of the parent comment.
anbop 7y ago
Twenty years ago the idea seemed several centuries away.
- hjfihrbrrhrb 7y ago
  20 years ago was 1999. I think that it was very easy to imagine self-driving cars being within a few decades' reach back then. Not much harder than to imagine it today.
  - WrtCdEvrydy 7y ago
    I remember there being an example around that area of a caravan of cars that could drive themselves.
  - anbop 7y ago
    Most of the talk of self driving cars was always on purpose built lanes/roads. That certainly has been in discussion for 50 years.
- CobrastanJorji 7y ago
  Twenty years ago they had prototype self-driving cars. They sucked, but they were good enough that planning started for the DARPA Grand Challenge. Some of the winners were hired by Google and became Waymo. They've been working on this for a long time.
- rayiner 7y ago
  I was in high school 20 years ago, and a robotics nerd, and back then it definitely didn't seem "several centuries away." The DARPA grand challenge was back in 2004.
stefanmichael 7y ago
I think you're likely completely misinformed on the state and progress rate of the solutions to this particular problem. I would be shocked if it were legal to drive as a human being on public roads in "several decades"
- throw7 7y ago
  It will always be legal to drive as a human being as long as I'm alive. I'm not that young, but, yes, I do expect to be alive for "several decades" more.
- hjfihrbrrhrb 7y ago
  Imagine getting into a self-driving car parked in front of a Brooklyn apartment, falling asleep in the back seat, and waking up in front of some house in Boston. Realistically speaking, how far away do you think we are from such an adventure being something that would be safer on average than having an average somewhat road-experienced human driving you to Boston?
  - stefanmichael 7y ago
    me personally? I'm pretty optimistic, I think 8-10 years and that would be safer than having a human drive you. at the current rate of improvement I think 20 years would be shocking, I can't imagine it taking more than that.
- rayiner 7y ago
  When I was a kid, scientists told me we'd be going to mars within a couple of decades. According to them, it should've happened about a decade ago. Same thing for supersonic airliners, etc.
  - randomsearch 7y ago
    And a crackpot non-expert politician told you that the USA would go to the moon in under a decade. Just can’t trust people. Check out Peter Thiel’s take on this.
  - 7y ago
erobbins 7y ago
Autonomous driving is the new nuclear fusion. It's a couple decades away.
flomo 7y ago
My take is the use case where you manually merge on to the interstate freeway in clear weather and say "hey google wake me up when we're approaching downtown Boston" is right around the corner. Its all those other use cases which effectively mean there will always need to be a human with a steering wheel.

wrycoder 7y ago

On Route 66, maybe, but IMO it's coming to the interstate much sooner.

hjfihrbrrhrb 7y ago
Could be, but then it would just be a glorified train system. People generally want to be driven from some building far from the interstate to some other building far from the interstate, not from onramp to exit. I doubt that self-driving car technology is even close to being interstate-ready, though.
benatkin 7y ago
I think NYC to Boston has traffic and bad drivers and that's why GP used it as an example of something today's tech is far from being ready for. I think it will take a lot of work but that it will happen rapidly.
aidenn0 7y ago
Did you mean Route 1? Route 66 isn't an option for NY to Boston...

whymauri 7y ago

The amount of hype for self-driving cars, even if they come several decades from now, is not 'bullshit.' Just because things don't happen immediately doesn't make them 'bullshit hype.'

hjfihrbrrhrb 7y ago
Yeah, but the hype is that they are right around the corner.
- slips 7y ago
  According to who?
  - MegaButts 7y ago
    Waymo committed and failed to launch a public driverless taxi service in 2018. Cruise is still publicly committing to 2019 although it's widely believed they will miss that mark. Zoox says 2020. Argo is aiming for 2021. Not to mention whatever timeline Musk tweets for Tesla's constantly moving target. There are more, so there is a lot of hype. Otherwise how would these companies be raising billions of dollars on unproven technology?
    - Erlich_Bachman 7y ago
      So what they should just stop and not develop it? What is your point?
      - MegaButts 7y ago
        I was just answering the question of the parent comment.

anbop 7y ago

Twenty years ago the idea seemed several centuries away.

hjfihrbrrhrb 7y ago
20 years ago was 1999. I think that it was very easy to imagine self-driving cars being within a few decades' reach back then. Not much harder than to imagine it today.
- WrtCdEvrydy 7y ago
  I remember there being an example around that area of a caravan of cars that could drive themselves.
- anbop 7y ago
  Most of the talk of self driving cars was always on purpose built lanes/roads. That certainly has been in discussion for 50 years.
CobrastanJorji 7y ago
Twenty years ago they had prototype self-driving cars. They sucked, but they were good enough that planning started for the DARPA Grand Challenge. Some of the winners were hired by Google and became Waymo. They've been working on this for a long time.
rayiner 7y ago
I was in high school 20 years ago, and a robotics nerd, and back then it definitely didn't seem "several centuries away." The DARPA grand challenge was back in 2004.

stefanmichael 7y ago

I think you're likely completely misinformed on the state and progress rate of the solutions to this particular problem. I would be shocked if it were legal to drive as a human being on public roads in "several decades"

throw7 7y ago
It will always be legal to drive as a human being as long as I'm alive. I'm not that young, but, yes, I do expect to be alive for "several decades" more.
hjfihrbrrhrb 7y ago
Imagine getting into a self-driving car parked in front of a Brooklyn apartment, falling asleep in the back seat, and waking up in front of some house in Boston. Realistically speaking, how far away do you think we are from such an adventure being something that would be safer on average than having an average somewhat road-experienced human driving you to Boston?
- stefanmichael 7y ago
  me personally? I'm pretty optimistic, I think 8-10 years and that would be safer than having a human drive you. at the current rate of improvement I think 20 years would be shocking, I can't imagine it taking more than that.
rayiner 7y ago
When I was a kid, scientists told me we'd be going to mars within a couple of decades. According to them, it should've happened about a decade ago. Same thing for supersonic airliners, etc.
- randomsearch 7y ago
  And a crackpot non-expert politician told you that the USA would go to the moon in under a decade. Just can’t trust people. Check out Peter Thiel’s take on this.
- 7y ago

erobbins 7y ago

Autonomous driving is the new nuclear fusion. It's a couple decades away.

flomo 7y ago

My take is the use case where you manually merge on to the interstate freeway in clear weather and say "hey google wake me up when we're approaching downtown Boston" is right around the corner. Its all those other use cases which effectively mean there will always need to be a human with a steering wheel.