> The assertion that criminals commit crimes because they do not think they will be caught is thin on evidence It's ironic that your statement is itself comple

> The assertion that criminals commit crimes because they do not think they will be caught is thin on evidence It's ironic that your statement is itself completely devoid of any supporting evidence, whereas the assertion you're attacking is well supported by evidence. The linked article explicitly cites a study showing that the certainty of conviction is an effective deterrent. https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Deterrence-in-Criminal-Justice.pdf https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01... > Research to date generally indicates that increases in the certainty of punishment, as opposed to the severity of punishment, are more likely to produce deterrent benefits > If there was 100% certainty of being apprehended for committing a crime, few people would do so. But since most crimes, including serious ones, do not result in an arrest and conviction, the overall deterrent effect of the certainty of punishment is substantially reduced > in reviewing macrolevel studies that examine offense rates of a specific population, the researchers found than an increased likelihood (certainty) of apprehension and punishment was associated with declining crime rates