Thanks for your detailed response. I'm afraid I'm still not sure how this simplifies much. The fact that people focus specifically on an optimistic scenario rat

Thanks for your detailed response. I'm afraid I'm still not sure how this simplifies much. The fact that people focus specifically on an optimistic scenario rather than having a random variance like a normal distribution seems very significant to me. If you can't predict this from first principles then you have to add in some extra explanatory factors, and then you still get your cursed epicycles.