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The assertion that criminals commit crimes because they do not think they will be caught is thin on evidence. The assertion that they commit crimes because they

The assertion that criminals commit crimes because they do not think they will be caught is thin on evidence. The assertion that they commit crimes because they think they can break the prosecution's case is skipping through the purple tulip fields of far-off fantasy. Most aren't thinking that far ahead. Perhaps not treating crime as a binary solution of punish OR release, but spending those tax dollars on prevention in the unsexy form of treatment, intervention, etc, might be a better result. You know, like those countries that don't have close to 3% of their adult population incarcerated.

Gibbon1 7y ago
I don't spend much time around criminals. But limited experience says most people that commit serious crimes seem to have intrinsic executive decision making failures or poor impulse control. I remember two things. One was a retrospective of California's death row inmates who's sentences were commuted to life in prison when the death penalty was overturned. Most of them (famously not Manson) were eventually released and the majority of them lives quiet lives after being released. Interviews with them painted pictures of what I described above. And another was a comment by a prison warden when asked what he wished the public knew about prisons. He said 'I wish people realized that all these men are going to be released eventually'
beatgammit 7y ago
Isn't a lot of the problem that we aggressively enforce drug laws where many other countries have either legalized common drugs or choose not to aggressively enforce it? Blaming the problem on prison reform and/or mental health care availability seems a bit unfair. Do you by chance have links to studies that show the effectiveness of mental health care in terms of avoiding prison and recidivism? Yes, I'm sure other approaches are also helpful, but just introducing those without solving the other problems won't fix the 3% figure.
whack 7y ago
> The assertion that criminals commit crimes because they do not think they will be caught is thin on evidence It's ironic that your statement is itself completely devoid of any supporting evidence, whereas the assertion you're attacking is well supported by evidence. The linked article explicitly cites a study showing that the certainty of conviction is an effective deterrent. https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Deterrence-in-Criminal-Justice.pdf https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01... > Research to date generally indicates that increases in the certainty of punishment, as opposed to the severity of punishment, are more likely to produce deterrent benefits > If there was 100% certainty of being apprehended for committing a crime, few people would do so. But since most crimes, including serious ones, do not result in an arrest and conviction, the overall deterrent effect of the certainty of punishment is substantially reduced > in reviewing macrolevel studies that examine offense rates of a specific population, the researchers found than an increased likelihood (certainty) of apprehension and punishment was associated with declining crime rates

Gibbon1 7y ago

I don't spend much time around criminals. But limited experience says most people that commit serious crimes seem to have intrinsic executive decision making failures or poor impulse control. I remember two things. One was a retrospective of California's death row inmates who's sentences were commuted to life in prison when the death penalty was overturned. Most of them (famously not Manson) were eventually released and the majority of them lives quiet lives after being released. Interviews with them painted pictures of what I described above. And another was a comment by a prison warden when asked what he wished the public knew about prisons. He said 'I wish people realized that all these men are going to be released eventually'

beatgammit 7y ago

Isn't a lot of the problem that we aggressively enforce drug laws where many other countries have either legalized common drugs or choose not to aggressively enforce it? Blaming the problem on prison reform and/or mental health care availability seems a bit unfair. Do you by chance have links to studies that show the effectiveness of mental health care in terms of avoiding prison and recidivism? Yes, I'm sure other approaches are also helpful, but just introducing those without solving the other problems won't fix the 3% figure.

whack 7y ago

> The assertion that criminals commit crimes because they do not think they will be caught is thin on evidence It's ironic that your statement is itself completely devoid of any supporting evidence, whereas the assertion you're attacking is well supported by evidence. The linked article explicitly cites a study showing that the certainty of conviction is an effective deterrent. https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Deterrence-in-Criminal-Justice.pdf https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01... > Research to date generally indicates that increases in the certainty of punishment, as opposed to the severity of punishment, are more likely to produce deterrent benefits > If there was 100% certainty of being apprehended for committing a crime, few people would do so. But since most crimes, including serious ones, do not result in an arrest and conviction, the overall deterrent effect of the certainty of punishment is substantially reduced > in reviewing macrolevel studies that examine offense rates of a specific population, the researchers found than an increased likelihood (certainty) of apprehension and punishment was associated with declining crime rates